It's been a while since we've heard some strong words said on the subject of the console war. How are the consoles doing, and what's in store for them this year? Read up on what analysts have to say about the matter, and head over to the full article.

While, somebody, somewhere, has to ask all the tough questions, somebody else has to answer them. In this case, it's video game industry analysts Nick Williams, Jesse Divnich and Ed Barton. What were they asked and how did they respond? Find out in the full article, right after the jump.

With Toshiba leaving the HD DVD format, we see the first signs of its effects on the console wars. Analysts agree that with HD DVD format out of the way, PlayStation 3 consoles will get a great boost in sales. Analyst Michael Pachter also gives his take on what's in store for Microsoft with the loss of HD DVD. Details in the full article.

With the Wii still going strong despite the shortage, it looks like Nintendo may very well be this year's winner of the next-gen console wars. But what about next year? Well, media analyst firm Screen Digest predicts that 2008 may be the year of the Sony PlayStation 3.

Find out why after the jump!

Looks like Electronic Arts isn't just about going global. EA Executive VP Gerhard Florin commented to BBC that within 15 years, the game industry will see only one platform in the market. It's an interesting notion and not exactly an uncommon one.

The idea isn't a "one console to rule them all" bit but more of a convergence of technologies, a single platform that can sustain the demands of the consumer as well as bring the best out from all the worlds. Coming from a developer's point of view, the idea is that programming would be easier:

We want an open, standard platform which is much easier than having five which are not compatible. [...] You don't need an Xbox 360, PS3 or Wii - the consumer won't even realize the platform it is being played on.

Screen Digest analyst Nick Parker believes that it's not about one console rising above all the others: rather a console that can provide channels for the publishers - Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo - to deliver their games. This prevents a monopoly of distribution of games, if not hardware.

However, Florin believes that hardware will basically boil down to game-centric PCs. The current participants of the console wars - the PlayStation 3, the Xbox 360 and the Wii - are just a step away from it themselves. If that's the case for future consoles, then even hardware isn't a monopoly, much like how all the parts of a PC isn't dependent on one company.

With all the consoles striving for technology convergence - developing the boxes to become a media hub and not just a gaming console - it's not really a strange idea to imagine that a convergence of console tech is the next step. Perhaps the logical, inevitable step.

 

The industry analyst firm Screen Digest further extends its reach into the video game industry by releasing a new service called Games Bulletin which provides periodic forecasts and analysis reports. Their first forecast predicts that publishers will be focusing more on the Wii in the future, and the Xbox 360 will be continue to be driven by its strong user base.

Analysis of data shows that publishers prefer the Wii over the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 not only because of its large and ever-growing player base but because also because it's cheaper to develop games for the Nintendo console. They predict that by early 2008, the total number of Wii games will surpass that of the Xbox 360's.

Screen Digest also believes that the Wii will be the leader by the end of 2007 with strong releases like Super Mario Galaxy, while the Xbox 360 will also be a strong presence because of Halo 3 and other multiplatform releases. The PlayStation 3 however, may have a hard time considering the lack of exclusive games.

From a broader view, they believe that the Wii and Xbox 360 will be "look[ing] back on 2007 with some satisfaction" while "the same cannot be said for the PS3." They attribute the PS3's decision to introduce a price cut to their lack of performance in the market.

All good things are going for Sony's Blu-Ray and we know it. With Blockbuster's full support and the aggressive move to ship more players, it's no surprise that HD-DVD is lagging behind. Blu-Ray is maintaining a five to one edge over its format competitor, says the research firm Digital Entertainment Group.

DEG reports that 1.5 million Blu-Ray players have entered households. This is mostly thanks to PS3 sales, as only 100,00 of these are standalone. However, only 300,000 homes have HD-DVD players with the numbers evenly matched between stand alone drivers and 360 attachment drives.

Warner Bros. senior vice president Steve Nickerson believes that consumers are preparing to embrace the new high-def DVD category. That said, Warner Bros. still support both formats.

Nickerson foresees history repeating itself, saying this year "will mirror the year 1999 or 2000 for DVD.” It's too early to tell which format will emerge victorious, but Blu-Ray is enjoying a good lead. Out of US$ 55 million consumers spent on high-def DVD titles, US$ 35 million were on Blu-Ray titles.

No matter how it turns out, the home video industry is hoping for growth in sales. “It’s in the very, very early days of our forecasts, but we believe that High-Definition discs will help return consumer video spending to growth,” said Helen Davis Jayalath from Screen Digest.

Screen Digest, an analyst group based in the United Kingdom, has conducted its own analysis of the gaming industry as it stands and went out on a limb to check on the long term viability of each of the three major consoles. Though no clear winner was seen in the horizon, the firm did offer insights on what each console-maker can do regarding the status quo.

Screen digest started off with the Microsoft Xbox 360, which it says seems to have "hit a wall" with the American company's target market being too focused on adult males. In the analysis, it was stated that the Xbox 360's bread and butter demographic is satisfied with a lot of great FPS games in the shelves, but added that the console is not doing very well with other gamer categories.

The firm did give praise to Xbox Live for having a large and dynamic user base that's making the business thrive for Microsoft and its partners, but reiterated concerns as to "how long can the XBLA catalogue grow while maintaining high or even worthwhile levels of profitability for publishers?"

And while pundits rave about the fast sales that Nintendo is experiencing right now, Screen Digest asks how long the aging technology of the Wii can keep its users happy. The agency recalls some suggestions of the casual gamer market drying up, saying "the Wii's target market could be saturated more quickly than its competitors..."

Screen Digest adds that issues with publishers having cold feet about launching third party titles on the platform. Faced with tough competition from Nintendo itself, publishers might opt to just "ride the coat tails of the Wii's install base" as the analysis suggests. However, the firm does emphasize that if the Wii continues to fire on all cylinders, the investment being put into it can channel publishing funds out of the Sony and Microsoft backyards.

   

As for the Sony PlayStation 3, the analysis made by the firm is all too familiar to us by now. "There is no doubt that currently there is a lack of distinctive content to drive hardware sales but Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 could reveal some unrivalled games which are exclusive to PS3," says the report.

Also in the suggestion list was a price drop by the end of the year. The analyst agency says that it's a move that Sony has done in the past and the timing would be in line to cuts with earlier products. If you want to see the full analysis text in verbatim, follow the read URL.

Given the huge lead DS is enjoying over PSP, analyst group Screen Digest from the UK believes that Nintendo's handheld will take 89% of market share in Japan - projected numbers are 112 million to 67 million respectively.

The group published a report explaining how they came up with such a conclusion. Calling PSP a "portable PS2," the analysis attributes Nintendo's success to superior software. Sony's machine may be more powerful, but Ninty had huge titles such as Nintendogs, Professor Kawashima's Brain Training, Mario Kart DS, and other entries from wildly popular franchises.

As of May 2007, the big N reports to have an installed user base breaking past 41 million across all territories. It jumped from 38 million at the end of Q1 this year, while PSP was at 20 million at the time.

Screen Digest expects DS games sales to reach 106 million by the end of the year, with PSP at 48 million. Such domination is believed to extend 'til 2011, when spending on DS games reach US$ 1.5 billion in Japan, US$ 1.1 billion in the US, and US$ 750 million all over PAL territories. A total of $ 1.7 billion across the globe is expected for Sony.

On the good side, the group expects PSP to sell better by the end of 2007. Obviously, they don't believe that will be enough to give the dark horse a boost. Only time will tell if their words will hold true.

To read the full report, click on the Read link below.

MMOGs (massively multiplayer online games) are taking over the world. Screen Digest studied last year's numbers and found that the MMOG market outside of Asia have reached US$ 1 billion. This isn't really as surprising as it looks for the rest of the world, with titles like World of Warcraft conquering boundaries.

The research called "Western World MMOG Market: 2006 Review and Forecasts to 2011" studied the current economy of the MMOG world, which business models are better, and gives a forecast on subscriptions and revenues up to 2011.

All the MMOGs currently in North America and Europe are collectively currently worth US$ 576 million and US$ 299 million respectively. Of course, everybody can guess the number one heavyweight of the MMOG subscription market - World of Warcraft, which has 54% of the market (translating to revenues of US$ 471 million last year). Number two on the list, believe it or not, is Jagex's Runescape.

The subscription business model dominated during the previous year - getting about US$ 875 million. The other two business models are expected to flourish this year (though maybe not a booming success like the subscription type): in-game items and currency sale and in-game advertisements. According to Piers Harding-Rolls, Games Analyst at Screen Digest:

During the past few years the Western landscape for MMOGs has become increasingly fragmented following the introduction of new genres of game including social networking, virtual pet rearing and virtual world building titles. These new games and platforms have brought with them many new gamers and also new business models that are generating revenue that is largely incremental to the incumbent subscription business.

Screen Digest foresees an increase of subscriptions to 10 million in 2011 and will get a whopping US$ 1.5 billion. Plus Europe's subscriptions will increase with countries Germany, UK, France, Spain and Italy (respectively) at the frontlines of subscription numbers and growth. Along with this increase comes the increase of broadband in homes, online console platforms and an increase in casual MMOGs. Harding-Rolls concludes:

Our analysis shows that the MMOG content pipeline differs from the current commercial climate in areas such as platform support, intellectual property licensing and content origin. MMOG developers and publishers should be aware of the implications of these trends to stay ahead of the market.