Pachter's crystal ball: GTA 5 by 2010, GTA 4 DLC to sell 2 million by year's end |
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Move over Niko Bellic. A new GTA star may be around the corner already!What with development for the DLC episodes, Rockstar Games isn't done with Grand Theft Auto 4 just yet. Despite that, analyst Michael Pachter is already pegging 2010 as the perfect time for the next console iteration of the sandbox franchise.
And since it's Pachter we're talking about here, he can't just leave it at a release date prediction. He's also forecasting that by 2010 - if GTA V does get released then - it will be able to sell 50% more than last year's GTA IV.
We donÂ’t think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25 - 30 per cent penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15 - 18 million units sold.
That means that Take-TwoÂ’s profits from the next iteration should be approximately 50 per cent greater than from the last version.
Total sales for GTA IV on the PS3 and Xbox 360 currently amount to 12 million units so far. That's 40% of the 30 million projected installed base of the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined in Europe and North America. (In short, of all the people who have a PS3 or 360 in the west, 40% of them bought GTA IV). The "25-30% penetration" he mentions above is based on a projected 60-million combined installed base for the two consoles by 2010.
Another prediction from our weather forecaster: GTA IV's next DLC for the Xbox 360 could be rolling out this November. With the first DLC (The Lost and Damned) already breaching the 1-million mark, total sales for both the first and second DLC could easily reach 2 million by the end of 2009.
* "GTA Legends" fan art by Patrick Brown (deviantart page here)
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Comments [refresh]
360 gets anooother DLC? Would very much be grateful for some PS3 DLC cheers thanks gimme now.
Actually I still got a lot of the main game to finish off first so I'm ok for now. And come to think of it I need to finish off VCS and LCS for my PSP... and I don't think I quite finished San Andreas on PS2... Guess I got plenty of GTA to be getting on with as it is.
I don't think it will be GTA V
When they use a new number has always been when using a new engine.
I think it will just be a city name next to Grand Theft Auto.
QJ, willl you please stop posting Patcher's predictions. Because thats all they ever turn out to be.... Predictions. This dude is wrong like 90% of the time. And I'm sure I'm not the first to think this either.
QJers, reply to this and show what you think about Patcher's predictions. Id like to know.
im surely there will be another gta either5 or whatever name,but after what happened with gta4 dlc i wont be buying it for sure(ps3)
No it looks like its every console generation, I think they'll probably stay with this engine considering its theirs this time. EA bought the engine used before.
If both episodes sell 1.5 mil copies for $30 mil each, that totals $60 mil, and $10 net profit for MS. That's only 20%, not a great deal. MS payed too much
Still not as bad as buying RARE for 375 million tho, then having no profitable games released and the Stamper brothers leaving.
MS payed 25 million each on those episodes, not to mention another 50 for all DLC being exclusive. Lets not forget Sony words of not paying for DLC or games to be exclusive but to make new franchises like LBP with their money. As a PS3 owner who loves GTA, you'll probably won't see any type of DLC for GTA4 at all. So don't get your hopes up.
While this is cool and all, this is just predictions after all, not to mention from an analyst of all people(and Pachter). As much as I do not like him and think no body should post his stuff, it is still news after all.