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WildTangent CEO predicts game consoles will be dead by 2020

Posted Jul 24, 2008 at 7:34AM EST by QJ Staff

Listed in: PS3, Wii, Xbox 360 Tags: DirectX, Disney, Microsoft, Seattle, Sony

Alex St. John, the CEO of online video game company WildTangent (Sea Life Safari, Blasterball 2 and 3), has predicted at the Casual Connect conference in Seattle that consoles will be "extinct" by 2020.

He said that "the PS3, the Wii and the X-box are the last generation of consoles that you either see or that anybody regards as successful in the market."

Before you start bashing him for his observation, it might be good to know why he feels this way. He pointed out that the shareholders of both Microsoft and Sony will no longer be amicable to the huge investments made when creating proprietary video game consoles. He added that people will want to be play video games in other places aside from the living room.

He then proceeded to comment on why big game console makers will face big challenges in transitioning to a market where people want to purchase, create and play games online:

Everything they know how to do is wrong. They start in a well. They think that brand matters. They think that their marketing expertise matters. They think that a pile of art work and a box matters. They have got a bunch of people paid huge salaries with years of expertise who would never dream of firing themselves because they have got the wrong domain expertise. And so Disney, for example, would never have funded the $200 million project to build Club Penguin, but boy they paid $700 million like little b****** to buy it after it hit the market. ...

So the weird thing is that the expertise and the skill set to create these games -- they are not really rocket science to make -- it is just an entirely new mentality. The big budgets and the money and all the stuff these companies have that are entrenched are not an advantage, they are an encumbrance.

As for the Wii's success, St. John pointed out that the only reason it met with success is the fact that it had a different controller. A trend, he pointed out, that is similar to what happened in Arcades. He then proceeded to say that the console business is "starting to behave like that dead arcade business."

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RIP: Scenes of our dearly departed (consoles)

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"He pointed out that the shareholders of both Microsoft and Sony will no longer be amicable to the huge investments made when creating proprietary video game consoles."

Proprietary means locking down market share. My company has to battle with Proprietary everyday thanks to all these ***** dev createing all their own proprietary ERP programs which each client we met with uses a different one in terms of structures, data and connectivity. If they can't do it with business solution which is required to generate money I seriously doubt they will achieve that in video games.

Ok, given that I am wrong... totally wrong. If MS and SONY and NINTENDO all agree on a common platform for games. That will either be on an existing platform or a new common platform. Building a new one will still cost $$$ and existing one is limit with choices and there aren't that many. Technologies will evolve too so you can't expect something existing now will still be good enough by 2020.

So what is he saying? Either we go back to play online games on PC like platform or someone somewhere will create something new to replace the consoles but it won't be called a console. Or video game will all became online games playing virtually on something that requires a *bio-port*?

If the console business is starting to behave like the dead arcade business then it means there must be something to replace it. He can't pin-point what it is....

There were predictions made about technologies back in 90's *(or 2000) that never came true and I can list a few below:

1. PC will nolonger have HDD, they will all be virtual consoles since everyone is gonna get a fibre line

2. E-commerce will be so popular that noone will shop outside of their house. They will be all watcht the Home shopping network and ordering pizza from their TiVO boxes.

3. Desktop PC will extinct. Everyone will buy a laptop or Palm

4. People will stop walking and everyone will hop on a Segway

5. IT will work at home *ALL* the time.. not happening even oil is at 140

# Wrong — Goglu666 2008-07-24 09:00

If videogame consoles die, it will be because they didn't follow the market. It's a long way till 2020 and hollywood could dissapear before that, leaving common entertainement to videogames.

So this guy has an opinion, ok. But he keeps in mind that console will follow the same way they did on last generation. They already upgraded to online play, online download, online community.

In a few generations (because I suspect at least 2 more generation befor we hit 2020), most of games will be available online. Console will offer a free library and a paying library. So anyone can buy the console and play games online like they do on PC, or buy more complete games like they do on PC.

If they don't then, maybe it'll be the end of console, but I'm pretty sure that if current consoles makers dies, others will rise with new ideas that the market will buy.

# I disagree — potat4o 2008-07-24 09:23

If anything, I think that the computer is moving to the living room, not the other way around like he suggests. X360 and PS3 are perfect examples of this, and the next gen will most likely distribute their games online. Sony already offers ways to carry your media wherever you go with portable devices like the PSP which will carry your movies or PSX games you download from the store, with PS3 being the main 'hub'. And companies like Microsoft have tools for ordinary people to create their own games. (XNA)

# WTF!?!?!?!?! — ISOHaven 2008-07-24 09:58

Not this crap again!!!

Oh brother.... consoles will be one machine....consoles will be dead..... in 2020 where will the egg issue be? Good or bad for you?

# He's right, guys. — NarooN 2008-07-24 11:18

Consoles will die by 2020, and we'll also have new technology to travel to the sun and LIVE THERE FOREVER. Also, we'll finally get those hovercraft we were supposed to have 8 years ago, as well as finding a way to build teleporters and walk on water.

# From the Man behind DirectX... — damonous 2008-07-24 11:29

...comes another M$-originated propaganda article on why we should stop buying hardware and physical software .... and just pay #$@wads like him to "rent time" playing a crappy Java-based game over the Web.

No thanks, Alex. Stuff that, Wild Tangent, and DirectX 45.1 up your @$%#!

# i disagree — Darthsappy23 2008-07-24 11:47

so 2020 is 12 years away? hmm im 24, 12 years ago i/we were playing videogames, ***** alot longer ago than that ppl played videogames. and whats to say in another 12, 20 or 30 years im more than likely going to want to play videogames. i mean alot older ppl than i play videogames, look at the wii. there are plenty of older people that play it. of course the console will evolve but i dont think that we will loose videogames. unless of course the whole economy collapses all the ice melts, go into a nuclear winter and life as we know it ends... lol.......

# wow he must be a terrible CEO — mreverdred01 2008-07-24 14:18

Wild Tangent? No wonder I've never heard of this company. Their CEO's a moron. His argument is really hard to grasp and wildly inaccurate. Video game consoles aren't going anywhere. If piracy is solved on PCs then maybe, but I don't see that happening any time soon. Even then, I'd still rather play on my tv than a computer screen. I've never really liked playing games on a PC. And if people want to play a game outside of the living room, they're going to use a psp or a ds. Has this guy never heard of them? What's he trying to say consoles will be replaced by? His silly online games I've never heard of before?

# eh... — 93pauott 2008-07-24 15:09

we do not have technology to live on the sun...

how the ***** could we live on a 6000 degree hot ball with gravity that will crush you?

yo cannot live in a reactor, and the sun is like a HUGE reactor.

# .. — 93pauott 2008-07-24 15:13

this is one man's thoughts, someone thinks the sun will explode, someone thinks the potatoes will wipe out the humans and take over the world...

but i'm not so sure we are going to be that lazy in the future. we all (almost) know what is best for us, so we will probably walk.

# I agree with you fin sir (or madam) — hush404 2008-07-24 15:35

The stand alone desktop computer and consoles are both evolving. Pretty soon I say we're going to have a Mix in the living room; a device that does your gaming as well as can check email, surf the web, chat with friends, watch media and so on.

The PS3 is a nice step in that direction. A major box for media as it is, it was the capabilities to surf the net and thus check email and so on as well as install an entire OS (linux) to do even more of the "home PC" work.

Before long I see people booting up their PS4's to check out the latest vids flying round, check their main, message, check the weather, do banking and all before signing in for a round of Resistance 5!

# lol — lacanaupro 2008-07-24 15:55

see you in 2020 when WildTangent will be dead because on CEO´s like you.

# lol 93pauott... — cjmabry25 2008-07-24 16:27

@3pauott

Dude, he was being sarcastic. He's saying the idea of game consoles becoming extinct in 2020 is as farfetched as living on the sun and having hovercrafts.

lol

# erm — Mack Geofries 2008-07-24 16:36

if we go into a nuclear winter, why would the ice melt?

< /completely ignoring the topic >

# This is hillarious — Sanzee 2008-07-24 16:40

Like many have stated above, predictions in the early 90's stated that console's wouldn't get anywhere in the coming years, that nobody would be walking but using technology to get to their destinations, and a bunch of other untrue statements.

This statement was said by the CEO of an online video game company. Of course it was. It's what he wants to happen because console's push people away from his business. What a clown, seriously.

# you can't be serious. — NarooN 2008-07-24 18:35

I mean, you actually took my comment seriously? I honestly feel sorry for you.

# - — mr.x256 2008-07-24 20:31

I remember reading someones prediction in a PlayStation Mag saying that PS6 will have a brain in it. I really don't think that will happen.

# - — mr.x256 2008-07-24 20:37

I already use my PS3 for this, when I install Linux it will be even easier.

By the way, you can already purchase complete PS1, PS3 and PSP games online from the PlayStation Store. Its rumord that PS2 games may soon be available there too!

# - — mr.x256 2008-07-24 20:44

We won't have hover cars. Electric cars aren't very powerful and the way cars are going everything is going electric. How are these engine going to drive us forward and up? Man the future will suck so much.

# huh — Kiljoy 2008-07-25 01:31

a traditional video game only system is pretty much gone from the market as it is except for the WII

PS3 has video service, a chat system, video confrenceing, chat, plays movies, plays music, web browser etc.

360 also has a lot of these things

to a point the WII does more than just playing games but not near the all around entertainment system that the other 2 are.

So why does he think that it will take till 2020

guess making crappy already done java games that people buy virtual coins to play makes him out of touch with the here and now he

# i bet — rakizta77 2008-07-25 01:42

i bet he's the one going to die by 2020...

# damn — ConXept 2008-07-25 01:58

aww rakizta I really wanted to say that.

# oh.. — 93pauott 2008-07-25 02:51

sorry, i didn't see your name, i thought it was another random nubcake.

# lol — 93pauott 2008-07-25 02:53

i really hope smoking cigars kills.

# so... — enigmaticdude 2008-07-25 04:16

No PlayStation 4, no Nintendo WEE, no XBOX 720? damn it.

# Head in the sand much? — Xastabus 2008-07-25 04:34

Hmm... this little tirade has a familiar ring to it. Mr. St. John needs a bit of a history lesson.

A.) The Arcade industry didn't kill its self, Home Entertainment made it obsolete. The vast majority of companies that produced arcade games are still in business today making games for consoles.

B.) He fails to grasp a fundamental concept of why consoles continue to exist today, basic consumer economics. Say I have $1000 of fun money. Your basic computer which is just barely enough to play games released last month costs about $500. Add a flat screen monitor of decent size ($150-$200) and your talking a starting price tag between $650 and $700. You haven't even started buying any games, which are typically $40-$60 this generation. When all's said and done I've bought a computer, monitor, and between 5 and 8 games. Those will have to last me a while since the games that will release next month need a better graphics card than I was able to purchase, a graphics card that would have increased the base cost of the computer by about $200, which I will eventually have to spend anyway on yearly upgrades since my new PC is already obsolete and will continue to be each time I upgrade.

Or...

I can buy a console of this generation ($250-$450), assume I have a working TV of decent size, and I've got an entertainment setup that's good for at least 4 years. I've got $550 to $750 in my pocket for any games or optional accessories. I could buy between 9 and 18 games with the left over money and I won't have to upgrade every year.

C.) Market diversity. The concept that all consoles have to converge into one, or that consoles will die completely and everyone will go back to PC gaming is Utopian and and unattainable. The market thrives on diversity. It is competition between the consoles and their differing features that drives the industry. Without competition and innovation the market stagnates and consumers loose interest.

D.) Upstarts. Even if Microsoft and Sony decided to dump their already considerable investment in the console market, there will be an upstart company to come in and fill the void. Nintendo simply cannot abandon console development, it is what they do. If Nintendo stopped tomorrow they would be at square 1. The only thing that will stop Nintendo from developing consoles would be a catastrophic failure such as Sega had with Saturn.

Mark my words, this will not be the last generation of consoles. The only thing that will kill consoles is if/when nanotechnology advances to the point where we can have an entertainment system linked directly to our brains. Anyone remember that Sony commercial? I think it was PlayStation 5, 7, or 9... something like that. Great stuff.

# Physical medium... — Xastabus 2008-07-25 05:12

I am strictly opposed to and frightened by the concept of online only product distribution. I like having something tangible for the money I spend. I like having the option of trading or selling my old games, though I rarely do. But most importantly, I like to know that eventually someone will write an emulator for the systems I own today and I will be able to play these games again when I retire even if the original hardware has failed and is no longer produced.

I have purchased a few games on XBLA and Wii Shopping Channel, but I will never buy a console that bases its entire existence on DRM controlled downloads. Likewise I will never buy into a subscription based system like Game-Tap, that's even worse since I'd be spending money monthly but the moment I cancel the subscription I'd have nothing to show for it.

# Doesn't Matter — hmslax21 2008-07-25 05:18

Guys this doesn't matter the world is gunna end in 2012 anyway so who care..

# WTF!?!?!?!?! — ISOHaven 2008-07-25 05:36

The REAL MATH behind the galactic alignment has a bumper of 36 years (that's plus or minus 18 years). It can happen anywhere from 1980 to 2016.

The Maya calendar happened to end at 2012.

# What a joke. — Scarface88 2008-07-25 09:11

Games consoles will have advanced to a stage where they are like virtual reality or something; like, you sleep and the game is a dream-esque experience or something cool like that... I hope.

In any case, how does that guy expect to be taken seriously? Look at him! Smirking away, with a bloody cigar in his hand. W*nker.

# .. — 93pauott 2008-07-25 11:21

i'm not that sure, what kind of disaster are we talking about now? the big meteor?

# One word — Josh1billion 2008-07-25 12:37

Wrong.

# WTF!?!?!?!?! — ISOHaven 2008-07-25 13:17

Nah, there are two basic theories.

1. Something of that magnitude must cause SOMETHING to happen. Yes, that's it....simply SOMETHING.

2. They believe the calendar was started when aliens visted the Mayans. Thus the crystal skulls. Thus, the newest adventure of Indiana Jones. It's believed that the aliens will visit us again during the alignment.

But, how many adsanced life forms live in the Milky Way? It can't just be us. After all there are aliens to visit us right? So this begs the question, WHY US? WHY EARTH?

So, um, yeah....

# & Brian — Stewies 2008-07-25 15:16

Those of you who believe this douche with cigar in hand are truly mistaken as the CEO of Wildtangent is none other than the biggest MS fanboy, Mr. Sense. For those of you on my side, there is no need for me to reiterate the fine statement of truth that consoles are here to stay and that victory is truly ours! As for this apocalypse threat, forget about the world ending in 2012, it's going to end in the next couple of months with this Large Hadron Collider!!!

# yea — hmslax21 2008-07-25 21:54

cause the Hadron Collider is going to casue a large black hole...o wait that is a racial term in dallas...i mean really what has the world come to

# Hang on... — Scarface88 2008-07-25 23:36

"the CEO of Wildtangent is none other than the biggest MS fanboy, Mr. Sense"

I thought he was the caretaker in Bill Gates' rectum?

# - — mr.x256 2008-07-26 01:33

It would be 'Nintendo *****e' unless the come up with decent names again. NES was much better than Wii.

# - — mr.x256 2008-07-26 01:39

You couldn't be more right about point B, this is why I buy games for console rather than the PC counterpart.

Oh, I think PlayStation killed Sega.

# - — mr.x256 2008-07-26 01:44

Maybe they like playing Space Invaders so much that they will want to try the real thing?

# damn sensor — mr.x256 2008-07-26 01:47

5H1t3

# >_> — Khjar 2008-07-26 10:44

http://pradt.net/imgs/book/grand/extinctiontimeline.jpg

This is my only extinction guideline.

# next gen console? — core2kid18 2008-07-26 11:20

the only thing that might prevent it would be the heat it outputs and the size/cooling itll need to be able to sufficiently cool it off, unless they come out with like 10nm processors...

# Thanks. — Xastabus 2008-07-28 03:35

Yeah, I stopped using PC as my primary entertainment medium shortly after I realized I couldn't play new games on my 5 year old rig but I couldn't afford any new games if I spent the $500 to bring it up to minimum spec.

I actually kinda oversimplified the Sega situation. Sega had a series of bad investments; namely 32X, Sega CD, and Sega Saturn. I'm all for add-on bits like the 32X and Sega CD, but they just didn't fly with consumers and weren't well supported by software. Then Saturn came out and it was technically a lot weaker than PlayStation.

The Dreamcast could have been their saving grace, but Sega lost too much from the three failures mentioned above. Combined with an existing PlayStation fanbase and the PS2 having almost total access to the PSOne library, I think it was harder for people to justify buying a Dreamcast over the PS2.

It still makes me sad. Dreamcast had a lot of unrealized potential.

# WTF!?!?!?!?! — ISOHaven 2008-07-28 07:59

According to you EVERYONE that plays the wii is Miamoto's b1tch.

Since according to you all Wii owners are homosexual I guess that plays in nicely with your delusions.

Personaly, I think you spend too much time thinking about d1ck. Especialy Miamoto's.

# lol — death 2008-07-28 20:40

sorry "because on" made me lol

# at least — death 2008-07-28 20:42

the wii has a web browser unlike some "next-gen" consoles i know

# dreamcast — death 2008-07-28 20:47

was a pirates dream look it up it killed sega

# 2 isohaven — death 2008-07-28 20:55

wooo saaa wooo saaa breath my friend breath

# MCS — Scarface88 2008-07-28 22:55

No it's not. You are so infatuated by Microsoft (and now Sony, possibly), and you hate Nintendo so much, that you fail to see the advantages of the Wii. Or do you see them, but can't bear to admit that they exist? Either way, you're a pest. Nothing more.

# Dreamcast — Xastabus 2008-07-29 07:04

Yeah, I own one. I followed all the piracy news back then. Problem is, it was more complicated than making backups for PSOne. Then there was that harddrive add-on.

Argue piracy all you want, fact of the matter is that Joe Average consumer isn't tech savvy enough to understand, install, and use the necessary tools. Pirates aren't going to buy the stuff they steal anyway, so blaming them for lost revenue is a total cop-out.

# anything could happen by 2020 — jmak0 2008-08-03 12:34

I disagree with this guy st. john (is he a saint?). basically because there is no reason why console gaming will become obsolete. I think there will always be a device which you can play games on, whether it uses physical media (discs) or streams the games via network connection; or instead of using a tv, stimulates parts of your brain - this is still a game console, no matter what it is like in the future.

MS and Sony not having the investment capability is not a valid reason either. Wherever theres demand (console gamers) there will always be some company trying to meet that demand. If MS and Sony don't fill that demand, another company will - I think an arcade company or collection of arcade companies such as capcom, namco, snk, sega and other developers could combine together to create a game console, and theres always going to be electronics companies willing to try something new, maybe samsung or toshiba could work with nvidia, ati, ibm, intel etc to make a game console? theres too many possibilities and too much money being spent on games to say that game consoles will become extinct.

Saying that though, by 2020 maybe humans will be on the edge of survival and the last thing we want to think about would be games...

# This from the leading spyware company in the world??? — Shaft 2010-11-04 19:31

Wild Tangent has no room to talk about gaming period. Weather it be consle or computer. Most of their games are garbage and all of them are loaded with crap to slow down your computer. So why are we even dealing with this twit.

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