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Wii HD could damage PS3 comeback, says Wedbush Morgan |
Listed in: PS3, Wii Tags: EA Sports, Nintendo, Satoru Iwata, Sony, Wiimote
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Wedbush Morgan's exhaustive report on the effects of ancillary revenues on the console cycle contains a little nugget that suggests a Wii HD could convince consumers that it's "the last console they will ever need."
The analyst firm suggests that the HD-capable Wii, which is referred to in the paper as "Wii Plus", would also come with a redesigned WIimote that incorporates Motion Plus technology, 1080p output at 60 FPS, and full backwards compatibility with current Wii titles. Oh, and a hard drive too. And all that for close to the US$ 199.99 price point.
So what does this mean for the other consoles? The report says that the advent of the "Wii Plus" could seriously damage Sony's chances for a PS3 comeback for the current console cycle:
In our view, if Nintendo can offer such a device by year-end 2010, it will be in a position to seriously damage SonyÂ’s chances of a comeback this cycle. We would expect publishers to support such a move, given that the cost of porting an Xbox 360 game to the new Wii Plus HD format would likely be lower than the cost of building a ground up Wii game (we estimate under US$ 5 million). Should Nintendo be able to convince publishers like EA and Take-Two that the Wii Plus should be supported by the entire EA Sports catalog and by the next installment of Grand Theft Auto, it should be in a position to successfully convince consumers that the Wii Plus is the last console they will ever need to purchase.
Lots of ifs and shoulds, there. Earlier this month, Nintendo president Satoru Iwata stated that he sees no reason to make a Wii HD, but hey, maybe by next year they'll finally have that reason.
Related articles:
Via VG247
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However, I would buy one for the sole purpose of killing my last analog device from my living room.
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Any idiot can come up with a what if this company created something new and how it would affect the rest. But since it's not an actual product they are just blowing wind out their buts. Most of what analysts say is a joke and listening to them is a waste of time!
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Nintendo is as glorified as Apples Steve Jobs .... they give the consumer very little to nibble on, but in their heads they think its MORE than enough (Steve Jobs on why Flash is not supported with the iPhone "Who uses Flash?" Nintendo on HD and HDD "Our customers do not want that").
It would clearly be possible for Nintendo to sell it for under 200 next year, just adding the HD OUT. They could also start including a built in 16gb SSD/SD card, and still keep it under 200, because everyone knows that its already 100 dollars over priced (maybe even more).
I am a big Nintendo fan here, but both them and Sony have been irritating me lately at how ignorant and *****y they are. I always hated Microsoft for the same reasons I now hate them, and I prefer the 360 out of all of those consoles now-a-days. And according to messages boards all over the world, a lot of people seem to feel the same way.
So for anyone to think Sony will come out ahead of Microsoft? Who knows ..... nothing you can predict .... console manufacturers have been very unpredictable as-of-late. So unless Sony finds a way to drop their price point, this year, to 250 ... they will never catch up.
Why? If they drop to just 350, or 300 even, MS will drop their sku's to 150 and 250 (possibly229). It is already heavily rumored that the Elite will no longer be in production, though that's probably cause the Super elite with a 320GB HDD will be coming out soon. While, even at 250, Nintendo will remain at the top.
Come to think of it ... I don't even think Nintendo would be even that generous .... They will Likely add an HD OUT and pack in the motion plus add-on, and leave it at 249.99 without a HDD. Sony does it, why cant they?
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I have 3 kids, I bought the Wii for my 2 daughters (2 and 6 at the time) and they love it, there is an abundance of great games for them, and they are almost all 4 player so they can play with all their friends! Reminds me of the good old NES days, really .... and the VC makes it all the better, my kids can experience what I had growing up(and more).
But for me? I rarely play the damn thing because I am sick of Mario, Zelda, and Metroid .... New gameplay mechanics are nice, but how bout some new IP's to go with it!
Ya know .... I really miss the days when a new Mario/Zelda/Metroid game got me excited .... now? I'm like "christ, another one already"? (case-in-point, Galaxy 2).
Which ties in with my point, Nintendo needs to realize the kids who made them what they are today, are twenty-some years older .... were adults, and frankly, I just don't want to spend my leisure time flailing away, or leaning left and right to play my video games. Again, good for kids, they need the exercise ... but when I come home from working all day, I want to relax, not workout some more.
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the thing is, the reason games like madworld, do so poorly is do to how poor the games are... Madworld for instance has 3 hours of gameplay, which has classic CUT/PASTE effect... *you can easily beat it in 1 sitting*
if we do get a Wii HD, it will be 720, and it will be 250+, nintendo doesnt care about their customers... the nintendo seal use to mean something, look at the games it gets now... more importantly, as far as parts are concern the wii is a updated Gamecube... thats just how nintendo does it, they do the minimal and expect it to be enough so they can bust out a better one later on, and look like a hero.
Classic case in point, is the aformentioned nomad. that came out when the gameboy was around, it cost 5x as much, but it was really worth it, unlike the gameboy. it could be a gen, it was portable, it was a controller when it was hooked up to a tv, it had a second player slow, and had a add on for a rechargeable battery *it also had a wall plug in* it had a back lit screen, and much more... it took nintendo 10 years to release a portable system with all these features, and the SP had minor tweaks and was only like 100 max more usd than the nomad... thats why it makes no sense, but let the people think what they want... you hold the power, but people dont even use it +\
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gotta agree with your points, but one can't be true:
The Wii is not more powerful than the original Xbox.
If you look closely at the specs, you see that the CPU is actually the same like in the GameCube, just a little bit overtacted. Sure the GPU is stronger, but from my experience no game on Wii comes even close to the graphical detail of a Fable 1, Halo 2 or Chronicles of Rid*****.
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There is talk about it, and it does make sense for Nintendo to release an HD capable Wii.
Thing is, it won't be as powerful as the 360 or PS3.....hell even PS3/360 cannot do 95% of their games at 1080p 60fps....
The best this will be is a good enough hardware upgrade so that it can play Wii like games @ 1080p 60fps.....but nothing near the quality of 360/PS3.
Read the article.....basically it sounds like Nintendo just wants to get in on the digital distribution bandwagon.
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Not so Fast... Let's think this over
First of all, adding HD support means that they Have to find a large storage capacity to support all of the Data.
I know that the Data can be compressed, first of all it will look crappy.
They Could use DVD9 but I'd rather have my Games uncompressed rather than upscaled.
Second of all Price, adding all these things cause a rise in price of the system. If your stating that future costs will fall, then this will include the development costs of the PS3 so there would still be competition. Btw I'm not sure but I think they also need to upgrade the processor to play HD games at a faster rate.
I for one would be pissed if this "Wii Plus" came out because I payed $300 for my launch Wii expecting it would give at least a lifespan of 5 years.
I really doubt the Hard disk since Ninty has already added SD support for channels. Unless they allow Storage of video and Music.
Playstation 3 is already getting Motion Sensing, so it's basically useless. The Wii is a family friendly console, which basically means that they don't give a damn about HD support.
Hardcore players Like us, prefer HD to enjoy all the features that the PS3 delivers.
In the end, it's useless to add HD and HDD support to the Wii, but it's a good Idea to Incorporate WiiMotion Plus.
Nintendo Never Intended to make the Wii to Compete with the PS3 since they are looking to avoid Competition and they succeeded.
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p.s i love sony and i love nintendo both are my absolute favorites they been around since i was a kid
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That is another thing about Wii games, a lot of them are half a$sed versions, of full version games on the other consoles/PC. Granted some pull through ok, for what the hardware can do, but devs are not putting the effort into it, anywhere NEAR, as they did with the xbox/PS2.
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Im just going by what most devs compare the Wii hardware to, considering actual specs never have been revealed, and obviously (because of the way devs describe it) there is an NDA between them and Nintendo to keep the description of the hardware specs modest, because it likely isnt THAT much more powerfull than the GC (which I seen several brand new units at toys r us the other month, for 30 bucks).
I agree with you how the Xbox had better looking games .... but Nintendo has also left their "quality over quantity" motto in the past and seems to now favor the opposite (zero replay, as Vic mentioned, a few hours long). The sick part, people are still paying 40-50 dollars for them!
Yeah, Nintendo has ALWAYS been successful, and on top (if you look at it their way). The 64 and the GC, while they both under performed, Nintendo STILL made more profit out of it because they use cheap, under powered parts.
This is the defense that kills me the most ... how they can attribute their total GB sales, selling more than any console has ever sold. But they leave out the fact that every other year, a new and better version was released.
It still holds true for the DS! And now if the Wii HD becomes a reality next year? They are going to adopt the same method they have been using with their handhelds .... and people will still buy it! Before we know it, the Wii will have spawned several iterations 6 years from now, and will have sold over 300million units combined (Wii to Wii 3D in 2015).
There are LOTS of reasons that can be attributed as to why they sell so much. Kids and their parents ... the whole kid friendly aura of the Wii, attracts it especially to parents. So even if the kid wanted a 360 or a PS3 ... he gets a Wii!
Then there is the issue, where (for some disturbing reason) casual/non-gamers are more comfortable with blowing into a mic/putting a speaker to their ear, and shaking their fists is more comfortable and second nature to them, than say ... pressing buttons in conjunction with using a joystick/mouse.
Then you got the people who are just Uber infatuated with Nintendo, that they believe (religiously) the company has never done any wrong and buy everything they put out ... twice over, even.
Which leads to my next point, the Wii is cheap enough most can afford to buy two of them, if not at the same time, down the road. But the thing is, ever since the 360 dropped to 200, more and more Wii units (which you could only find on ebay for 350$!) have been popping up on shelves all over the globe.
Sure, Nintendo says they have more factories pumping out units and are meeting demand. Then where was all the news about them opening new factories to do this? Is it news you have to dig for? I go to almost 10 tech sites daily, and 7 are strictly gaming. I rarely post anymore, but I been getting so stressed lately, I need to vent! LoL
Then there are all the colored units, that are sold out of state and the collectors editions, and well .... all sorts of other small factors that add to it. But hell, you could factor them into 360 and PS3 sales as well.
We all know why the PS3 is doing so poorly, price, and the forcing of Blu-ray down our throats (the majority of physical media followers are going to be old heads and fanboys). Sony used to listen to its fans, its always been about profit, and they not always delivered ... but they at least listened. People said this would be a bad move, and that a console over 400 at launch is pushing it (and it did). But yet they still believe that anyone but the wealthy/single are buying that thing for 400 bucks!
And you know what drives me crazy the most? Even after all the valid points I have just picked through, I still say ... why .... WHY IN GODS NAME IS THE Wii SELLING SO WELL?????
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i DO believe, a lot of it stems from 3 key things...
Series, bring people, I might sound stupid, but i bought a ps3, to JUST play disgaea 3... many people are buying the wii for Brawl/galaxy/kart. games like these, have down in quality, and are rather lacking... *i mean look at how hard it is to get EVERY character in kart... whenever i play single now, i get blue shelled like crazy, because i get such a lead, the game wont let me keep it!* In addition to this, there are very few mature titles, and really its just Sega, and their games. Because of this, parents are more inclined *as you mentioned bad* to buy, due to this.
another huge factor, is 2 things... hacking it is easy, and anyone can do it... i mean look at the history
Clips, then ribbon exploits, then usb add ons, then a program to boot them, then a HDD loader... which with bannerbomb theres VERY little holding people back... these things *after my 6 months and almost 2,000 people helped* is only for piracy, and MANY people cant even handle figuring it out, BUT unlike the 360 its not hard, nor does it have much of a risk, so it without a doubt helps the wii in sales!
and in addition to that, you can make the wii a semi useful device for very little, by running emulators, and wiiware +\...
finally its the concept of "friends" in my College, everyone in the social area are either playing wii *theres usually around 5* and a xbox MAYBE 2... things like this make the wii a better thing in most peoples mind... and helps the wii sell much better *sorta the same as their portable systems, out of the 200 or so regs only 2 of them own a PSP and im one of them, but the pokemon plat tourny had 50+ signed up*
finally, its the deceptive ad's they air... Conduit, was a game i was semi excited for... I got it the other day... and when i saw Kevin Sorbo voice acting, i was disapointed, though the ad's say its the "best shooter, on the wii" and "amazing this or that"... i can say PERSONALLY played it myself, it took me 1 hour 20 mins to beat story... on hard... theres VERY little if any replay value, and story is only what 6 chapters long +\ now i can also say, playing the game is HARD, because the wii controls are hard to work... i mean hold down C, aim with the wiimote, scope by holding down down, and try to hold that for 10 or so seconds... and tell me you can REALLY see that being a fun game to play +\
the fact of the matter is, people give things good reviews that dont deserve it *madworld got a 9/10 if i recall, with the ONLY downside being the gameplay time +\* and good games like Cross Edge for the ps3 gets a 3.5/10 if i recall... for having sprites in "this day and age" and a confusing layout *which is only confusing for the first 10 or so battles +\* when you have double standards like that, its NO WONDER why wii is so far ahead +\
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As far is it killing the PS3 I don't think so. They have always served to different markets. Trying to reclaim development cost from game sales on a $200 HD Wii would be crazy. As Microsoft is beginning to find out, the lack of a higher storage medium is starting to affect game development. Nintendo would have to come to market with a $200 system that would compete on a hardware basis. In other words to keep prices down it would have to be an established chip set and board. So they would be buying some combination of XBox or PS3.
I like my Wii and I purchased it because it is fun and didn't require HD. It played old 1st and second generation games. Having a Wii would not push me to buy a new Wii HD. If I had no system and technology mattered that much I would pick the PS3. Blu-ray, 3D, free online, Netflix, full internet browser, 5 studio exclusive HD agreement, Video rental and purchase, the wand, great exclusives. A close second would be a 360, PC intergration, netflix, XBox-Live, Project natal, Last fm, Free download games, Video rental, great exclusives.
Lastly the Nintendo is a video games company, not an entertainment company. They have to different mindsets, and two different markets. It's like asking Toyota to update it's Corolla to compete with the Lancer EVO. They both drive, but they serve different markets. Plus the Corolla is more profitable to the company.
So you want Nintendo to develop a new system with more expensive parts that cost them more money to develop for and serves a market already being well served with an inferior setup but in HD. I think not.
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The 360 and the PS3 have lost money for a portion of their life cycle and depend on game sales to make it up.
The Wii has outsold them on sonsole sales so the only reason is to increase game sales. Here are the top five game sales from each console.
360
Halo 3 (8.1 million)
Gears of War (5 million,
Gears of War 2 (5 million)
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (4.2 million)
Grand Theft Auto IV (4.074 million approximately: 3.29 million in US, 750,000 in UK,34,000 in Japan)
PS3
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (4.65 million)
Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (3.5 million)
MotorStorm (3.31 million)
Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (3 million shipped)
Grand Theft Auto IV (2.659 million approximately: 1.89 million in US, 169,000 in Japan,600,000 in UK
Wii
Wii Sports (60.69 million)
Wii Play (26.71 million)
Wii Fit (22.56 million)
Mario Kart Wii (21.22 million
Wii Sports Resort (13.58 million approximately
New Super Mario Bros. Wii (10.55 million approximately
Wii Fit Plus (10.16 million)
Now I added two extra games since people would complain of the sports bundle and the wii play bundle.
To put this in prospective the top three games of the PS3 and 360 were in house and very profitable. All of the ones for the wii were in house. So why would the Nintendo want to cut into profits when the next gen consoles are over budget and under profit as compared to Nintendo. Total sales of Nintendo games are 509 million as compared to 142 million for the PS3. If you look at the top 20 console/handheld games of all time Nintendo has 17 of the 20 titles. The only thing that comes close to sales volume is the PC.
I think Nintendo has a handle on this, I really don't think they need to develop a HD console. It would be like the Sony scraping the PS2 because the Xbox had a hard drive.
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