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Pachter: "Wii 2" in a few years, PS3 will eventually win by 2011

Posted Jun 15, 2007 at 1:15PM EST by QJ Staff

Listed in: PS3, Wii Tags: Michael Pachter, Microsoft, Scott Steinberg, Sega, Sony

Game market analyst Michael Pachter is at it again, this time issuing some very interesting responses to SEGA executive Scott Steinberg over the Nintendo Wii's staying power and what it means for the future of the industry.

Pachter explained the reasons behind Steinberg's concerns over the future of the fast-rising Nintendo console. "I think that a lot of people consider the Wii a 'fad,' and attribute that conclusion to the type of people who have been attracted to the Wii so far," says the analyst.

He continues that the casual gamers and old people that the Wii brought in are still a puzzle to a lot of developers. This, he says, is "baffling" traditional game developers who have catered to hardcore crowds in the last few generations.

A direction that Nintendo can take to adjust to changing times and stay in the game could be the introduction of HD visuals on a new console. "It's easy to envision a Wii 2 in a couple of years that runs at full HD, and has both a Wii-mote and an analog controller, so that all games can be ported to it," Pachter predicts.

And though he says he doesn't agree with Steinberg's analysis regarding the Wii, he does share the same opinion about Sony's PlayStation 3. "Sony is around 6 million units behind Microsoft, and should be able to make up the gap - barely - by 2009 if they price the console correctly. They will likely be 9 million units behind the Wii by the end of this year, so it may take a bit longer to catch Nintendo, likely 2011 or so," he says.

So what's it going to take for Sony to beat Nintendo? Pachter agrees with Steinberg that the PS3 will eventually rise as the winner. Pachter says it's a combination of two things: The success of the Blu-ray format and a price cut that will reduce PS3's price point to US$ 199 or less.

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Because there will be some enhanced version of the Wii in about a year or 2 at max....that's the nintendo way...

As far as units sold, who the hell cares ? Of course Wii will sell the most, it's cheap as dirt and a huge novelty....it would be considered an impulse buy if it were not so hard to find.

Also, 2010 and 2011....what does it matter at that point, the 720 will then be out, wii 9 will be out and sony had better have something new out by then as well...

# picture comment — Guest 2007-06-15 15:03

That picture is of two fake (cardboard) systems and a (cardboard) Wiimote... I know cause I made them and took the pic.

# These things about the Wii are all a load of rubbish — Guest 2007-06-15 15:29

Really, they need to think a bit before they write these things. Baffling traditional developers? How? They're sticking to the same franchises, they're not trying to change to get these crowds on the Wii. The only ones doing that are guys like EA and Ubisoft, who've made casual games all along, so it's nothing new to them. All it's doing is bringing in a lot more casual gamers, which as long as SSBB, MP3, SMG etc. arent dumbed down to cater for them, I really dont care about.

# to be honest — Guest 2007-06-15 15:39

To be honest, I'm really tired of all these analyst posts that QJ puts on the site. I'm just tired of everyone going, "Oh yeah, the PS3 will emerge on top in like, 4-5 years and it'll be the "winner" (as if there could be a winner in video game systems - it's not like Olympic sport) of the video game markets." I mean, that's great and all but in the mean time, it still is statistically behind than all the other systems in numbers sold. This doesn't mean anything about it's quality or the quality of the other systems because, of course, the price is a big issue as well. I mean, who wouldn't want a Lamborghini or some high end car, but most people don't get it because of the price.

I'm not saying that I'm not fond of the PS3 because I really enjoy the console so far but I'm just tired of firms and companies posting "The winner in 20xx" because so what if it will be, it sure doesn't change anything in the present.

I'm just tired of these posts. I'm not bashing or promoting anything. I'm just honestly tired.

# ha haha to wii owners — Guest 2007-06-15 16:16

now you thought nintendo was great, hahah. you know ps3 is the greatest machine. spiderman on wii was terrible than ps2 version. hey are there any wii games coming out , oh wait bug island worst game ever on the wii. wii play sucks its demo rip off. maybe they should of have taken that demo game off selves. gues what i haven't seen a wii maybe because there is no good games. zelda wii is gamecube.

# Wii do have good games — Guest 2007-06-15 16:34

The wii has Rayman,Zelda,Tr aumaCenter, and Excite Truck

# wii sukkas — Guest 2007-06-15 16:55

The only good game you wrote was zelda...the rest are jokes....really...are you REALLY trying to tell us that Excite Truck is agood game...REALLY? Have you played it...SOOO BAD!!! and Rayman...Cmon!!!! Ohh and trauma Center..ok thats not bad but its not somthing that you would want to play as a real gamer!...Really really lame games I must say...other than Zelda.

# to the post above — Guest 2007-06-15 17:10

You are saying that you are a real gamer ? Did you just take the time to try these games before saying these are jokes ? If you have this kind of opinion it's because you had played them and we have a good understanding of your comment, you are saying that you're not a real gamer.

By the way, how do you know who is a real gamer ? For what I know Trauma Center is a game you play on a videogame system, same thing for Brain age, Rayman or other traditionnal games like Zelda, God of War, Halo and all the games we have. Any person playnig any kind of game can be considered a gamer, even if it's a hardcore or a casual, even a FANBOY, they all play games and that only worth the title of gamers.

# $199 — Guest 2007-06-15 17:25

Does anyone really think that the ps3 will be $199 in the near future it will be many years before the ps3 is that cheap.

# So true... — Guest 2007-06-15 17:41

I have a wii and i would have to agree with this one. It was fun at first but then months later it got boring. The only game i am looking forward to on the wii is smash bros. The PS3 is just going to get better with new Firmwares that come out. In a few year when the price drops i will buy a PS3.

# the games he talked about... they ARE crap — senjutsu 2007-06-15 17:48

I played exite truck at ebgames and it sucked, I played trauma center on the ds and it was good, but I'm not in for wii, rayman... rayman are always bad, I tryed a lot, and never liked it. So yes, zelda was the only good game, but I bought it on the GC (sob, I didn't find a wii fast enough). And I don't think I'll buy a wii this year, I'll get a ps3 instead, I'm more a "real" gamer (in the sense where "real" gamers are the ones who play complex games, and really often) and I LOVE RPGs and strat. RPGs (JRPGs only, since I hate fake rpgs like elder scrolls...), ps: strat rpgs is liek disgaea. Anyway the ps3 is for me, the wii is not, at least for now, maybe when FF crystal chronicles is out... it's looking way better than the 1st (terrible). I mean, simple games are the BEST for portable games (ds is godly), but I don't like them on my big tv... Too childish, not enough brain usage...

# yup — Guest 2007-06-15 17:48

Yup ...smart...its true ...people that play games ARE gamers. Its magical how you are generalizing what Im saying. Great debate skills gamer9851.

# word — Guest 2007-06-15 17:51

well i agree with your gamer part and all but the wii really doesnt have anything except zelda and a million mary remakes i owned all 3 nex gen consoles and sold my wii because im not a huge zelda fan and the rest of their games were kind of annoying and i dont see them getting better ever im tired of mario 26 i want new series but yea excite truck was a joke idk why i bought it...

# ... — Guest 2007-06-15 17:52

PS Yes I have played all of the games...and after 10 min I felt like a bored 10 yr old except with Zelda...Im sorry but I jus cant get into games like that....SORRY I SAY!!!

# word — Guest 2007-06-15 17:53

mi friend you have atleast 5-6 years before you can ever see that happen with the 360 or the ps3. but the wii like the gamecube in 4 years you can probably goto gamestop and buy one used for like $70 which should be its retail price now

# sdfs — Guest 2007-06-15 18:26

anyone down playing someone else's opinion about games in such a manner is ***** not a ***** but *****

# Geez! — Guest 2007-06-15 18:32

Game market analyst Michael Pachter is fake. Do not believe everything about him. He is being ridiculous. Michael, please grow up and be human! GEEZ!

# blah blah ya chickens — Guest 2007-06-15 18:37

i agree with the ps3 gettin better with its upcoming titles and such, but i wouldn't count any system out yet even the wii, excite truck was good but felt like a tech demo, a gamer is someone who plays games on multiple level and diff genres, casual players and such r more lik just players of quick short-like games to hav a quick escape from reality, hardcore gamers r the ones with a library of games they hav beaten and such and care to brag about it lik some otaku, also back to the wii thing i think it will drop when shortly after its sales go down by 50%

# *laughs* — Burn_Griffith 2007-06-15 21:26

I agree to the PS3 owners that've posted in this shout session and to those future owners, kampai! (cheers) :).

First and foremost. I thought the Wii was gonna be "all that". But man, was I ever wrong.

Sure it has worthwhile titles like; Twilight Princess, S. Smash Bros Brawl etc... But it's mostly future games like;

Tekken 6

Final Fantasy XIII

Final Fantasy Versus XIII

The Last Remnant - PS3/360

That make PS3 over shadow Wii

# -.- — Guest 2007-06-15 21:42

The wii 2 will come in 4 years atleast.

# um — Guest 2007-06-15 22:22

I dont know why someone would want to be labeled a 'real gamer'. All that states is that your a lonely loner that doesn't get out much and has no social abilities so you stay home all day playing video games.

Nothing wrong with being a casual gamer, it just means you have more of a fufilling life than just playing video games 10 hours a day.

# WTF does Sega know? — Guest 2007-06-15 23:51

They couldnt hang in the console business. AND as of recently, they have been releasing trashy games. His opinion is worth as much attention as my own.

# Flawed Statement — Guest 2007-06-16 00:24

"It's easy to envision a Wii 2 in a couple of years that runs at full HD, and has both a Wii-mote and an analog controller, so that all games can be ported to it,"

The wii already has an analog controller. Its called the Classic Controller, or a Gamecube Controller.

Games have already been designed to use a range of controller schemes, so that people can chose.

Hardcore gamers would choose the classic or cube, and people like me would use the remote and nunchuck.

# sad — Guest 2007-06-16 00:27

lol it is quite sad how Sony fanboys come to bash the Wii because its outselling it........and how you can bash the Wii on one game like spiderman 3 which does suk.

I could bash the PS3 on so many levels but im not going to stoop that low;)

# Crap. — Guest 2007-06-16 01:18

I have the Wii, and it doesn't lack a bit, but the PS3 is NEVER gonna be a success. It's nothing but a big piece of ***** and the 360 will always be better, at least in America. ***** your PS3. It ain't ever gonna be on top. I just hope Sony drops out sooner than Sega did. Poor Sega. Sony never can make games as good...

# Jesslez is a whore — Guest 2007-06-16 02:10

to Jesslez .... your a *****ing noob you son of a *****, dont throw around statements without proven facts.

and ya my ass if the ps3's price drops to 199, mabe dont to 400 in a years or two.

# you see — Guest 2007-06-16 02:30

The comment above me just proves it. All these bashers do is play video games, eat, then go on discussion boards to bash everything they dont have. You guys are going to make excellent republicans when you leave your basements.

# Baffling — damonous 2007-06-16 03:28

If you think about it from a marketing perspective, it's not that hard to imagine why this would be baffling developers. Yes, right now they are sticking to traditional franchises .... and that's exactly the point: they know that these game will eventually alienate this new market they've opened (the old people and the 'casual gamers'), because they will eventual tire of these games (as they always did before). This is practically the definition of a 'fad': a new feature or new extension on an existing technology that grabs a lot of initial attention, only to have that attention wane as the creators of that new feature or technology-extension fail to find a way to flesh-out that same invention. In other words, what kind of game would an older person really like to play, other than Wii Bowling? Once you've done all the sports, what do you really have left other than modifying the input interface on an existing franchise? --This is not enough to sustain the love affair. Mind you: I'm not saying it's impossible or that it wouldn't be interesting to see what someone would do, but what is needed is similar to what PacMan was in the 80's when previously all that people new arcade games for were blips going left-and-right across the screen, possibly firing upward.

# wii or x360 — Guest 2007-06-16 05:23

I have a wii and a x360, I would say that my initial impression upon playing wii was nothing short of amazing specially when i first layed wii sports. It seems to be the only game that really holds my interest. The rest of the games aren't that interesting.I was dissapointed with the graphics specially when you have HD TV that display nice x360 graphics. The wii is something you would play with your friends, to show off, that about it. Besides you would only be able to play the wii mostly an hour because of its tiring control manuever. I'm not sure about the ps3 though, they better release more exclusive games to convince x360 owners.

# 720 — Guest 2007-06-16 07:10

So ur sayin the new xbox can flip 360x2

# nah — Guest 2007-06-16 08:37

I guess that's why the PS3 is doing so good *Saracasm*

# Nah — Guest 2007-06-16 08:42

I'm gonna bet you that all three of those exclusives will be 360 ports too....just like MGS4 or Devil may cry.....

wiiva la wii!

# .. — Guest 2007-06-16 09:30

The PS3 will never see 199.99 thats actually the dumbest thing I've ever heard come from someones face. Honestly the Wii has too much momentum to be caught by the PS3. It's just too popular. The DS is extremely popular and appeals to many types of people. It's a good indication of the Wii's broad appeal. Soon, like the DS, the Wii will be a common site in many homes due to it's simplicity. And the core gamer will be satisfied by the big time developers jumping on board the Wii to produce games. You can leave the casual gamer to Nintendo's 1st and 2nd party devs. The PS3 may never catch up to Nintendo but it may be able to squeeze past the 360

# ... — Guest 2007-06-16 09:33

If the PS3 ever hit 199 then the Wii would likely drop to $100 - $50 while still making mostly profit. Why not buy a system that is as cheap as it's games and cheaper than it's competitors games?

# what — Guest 2007-06-16 09:58

what are you smoking. MGS4 is NOT going to 360.

# To shatterdome — Guest 2007-06-16 10:10

Um the ps3 will be the only system for sony until most likely 2015 maybe more. Cause the fact is this is a 10 year commitment. I mean they could start making a newer version by 2011 and have it come out in 5 years later that would make sense. But don't except a new version soon for sony. However everything else you said was right on the money.

# look at the last gen of consoles — Guest 2007-06-16 10:19

the ps2 had the worst technical specs of the last gen and sold more units then any console ever. wanna know why? its because it had alot of developers behind its back and they made tons of games which made lots of different genre's and had the most games for the so called "core gamer" the wii will go in the same direction. they are already getting more and more developers and they are making games like crazy and nintendo itself has 80+ games in development to come out within 2 years or less

it maybe cheap and maybe less technical but its fun and easy to develop for and not to mention its selling like crazy and developers know they will make money off the games they make. there is accually alot of developers waiting to release their games out on ps3 cause they are waiting for more units to sell so that can make money off their games.

also sony will not drop the price of the ps3 for a while cause they are already losing to much money off of each console sold.

# lawl — Guest 2007-06-16 11:22

Super Paper Mario put it best on the 3rd chapter

'I like to eat all day, and go on message boards and complain about video games i've never played about True/False'

# re guy above — Guest 2007-06-16 12:24

when they said 10 year cycle they mean that it will be supported for 10 years and most likely a new console will be out in 5-6 years.

The PS1 only stopped production in 2002.

Betamax players stopped production not that many years ago too.

# I agree wit lol — Guest 2007-06-16 13:16

It will be a while until ps3 price cut is soon since they are loosing money. I predict a 360 premium price cut soon...you know....since they're losing money now. I'll get a Wii for smash bros, zelda and probably metroid. I'll save the good 3rd parties for my future 360.

# japan desuka? — Guest 2007-06-16 15:11

well did you know that 2 in japan is pronounced nii (correct me if i'm wrong)

If they made a Wii 2, it would in-fact be the Wii Nii in Japan...

ROFLMAO >;D

# HA — Guest 2007-06-16 15:18

$199US?

It's the dumbest thing I've heared so far this year.

# Ps3 in last — Guest 2007-06-16 18:02

Sony will never come back to where they use to be, because they have nothing to speak of the only reason they didn't before is the amount of good games. Now that no companies want to make anything for their complicated system we will now see the power of sony falter, and all the games are going to which it a better system and cheaper.

# Wii2 — Guest 2007-06-16 20:07

Theres no official word about wii 2 this guys just making his prediction and it prob wont come for about 4 year. Wii is awesome especially because it can be modded and ps3 r just too expensive for now.

# Children should be supervised on the internet — Guest 2007-06-16 22:28

Which is more pathetic, your lack of ability to spell or the fact you feel the need to attack another system? The Wii is underpowered, the PS3 is overpriced and overpromised, and the X360 has faulty equipment. They're all crap these days, just pick the crap you want and be happy.

If you kick at other crap, all you get is crap on your shoe.

# not — Guest 2007-06-16 22:30

The gamecube had the "worst" technical specs

# I hate fanboys. — Guest 2007-06-16 22:36

Spider-Man 3 sucked on all the consoles, but I think it was pointed out here on QJ at some point that the Wii port was underdeveloped. Give it time, I guarantee the quality of Wii games will rise a great deal as devs are coming more and more to recognize the Wii as a serious contender, and not another Nintendo pipedream.

# Hahahahaha — Guest 2007-06-16 22:38

You said "noob." l4mr. What next, you gonna start asking everyone for free equipment and gold?

# Hear hear — Guest 2007-06-16 22:43

You're right about Sony losing so much money, they actually sell the systems at a loss...it costs more to produce each system than they charge for it. All the profit is to be made back in software licensing and sales. But I'm not so sure you're right about the Wii being easier to develop for, I've heard it's actually a little more difficult than average. That's Nintendo for you. But I still love my Wii.

# Hahahahaha — Guest 2007-06-16 22:45

LOL that's the greatest translation ever. Japanese never ceases to amuse me.

# To death100 — Guest 2007-06-17 00:57

Actually, the Ps2 DID have the worst technical specs, followed by gamecube, followed by xbox.

I'd laugh my ass off if you tried to prove me wrong, since these are FACTS, thats why there technical specs.

# wii has firmwares — WiiCool 2007-06-17 01:38

although nintendo hasnat been releasing firmwares its not like they can't, the last one added a bunch of new features like the weather and news channel----I know the Wii has a lot of potential, it just depends on whether they use it...

# that is probabaly true — WiiCool 2007-06-17 01:40

The Wii is like the ds--- a gamble and a risk for Nintendo that ended up being worthwile. It should be like 4-6 years before they perfect the Wii with a Wii2.

# umm... there was something a Nintendo exec said.. — WiiCool 2007-06-17 01:48

Pls do not flame me for this .... but he said that the Wii was designed to output in full HD. I'm not sure I believe that, but then again... Nintendo has not yet confirmed the details of most Wii specs. Right now it's mainly speculation. On wikipedia the paragraph b4 it shows the Wii specs it reads something like:

Nintendo has not confirmed any of this so this may be only slighty true or compltly false.

DOnt quote me on that, just look it up, that's sort of what was on Wiki. I REALLY hope that Nintendo has been holding back...if you think about it the Wii has many features that havent been put to use yet. MAybe soon all my questions will be answered with a firware upgrade or update.

P.S. This is just speculation---my thoughts

# To death 100 — WiiCool 2007-06-17 01:51

I would be willing to bet you 1000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 000000000000000 0000000 dollars that the PS2 had the WORST technical specs. THAT IS A FACT!!!! LOOK IT UP ON WIKI!!!

# lol that was too extreme — WiiCool 2007-06-17 01:57

I sort of agre with you that SOny won't be top dog anymore (my opinion) but I don't think it will be that bad... It sounds like you have a grudge against it lol. the reason I agree (only a bit) is because the PS2 was an instant hit when it came out, even though the more powerful gamecube came out---then the most powerful xbox came out with 10GB. What that showed me was that the "extra stuff" has very little to do with a console. People just want to have fun. The PS2 was already popular, and it still is outselling the PS3 right now. Now Nintendo went to Sony's (old) strategy and made a more simple console (although a lot more innovative).

# To comment on the actual article... — WiiCool 2007-06-17 02:02

He is just ranting... By 2011 whos gonna give a dam about a ps3 when XBoX 3/ 720 comes out and there is a Wii 2. By then there will be like super graphics that exceed the PS3 by like 3 times and Nintendo will have perfected its control and have serious backing by developers while Microsoft will have made a newer, mre powerful and innovative console that competes with Wii2 (assuming there is a new XBox and a new Wii). That is why I disagree with him... and Sony. Then again... if the PS3 does horribly than look out for PS4 with virtual reality (jk).

# re TheTanooki_Chri stian — Guest 2007-06-17 02:11

Nice pic Lol!

# Please — Guest 2007-06-17 10:09

Come on really who cares what console comes out on top other than the console manufactures. I know everyone one of you wants to believe that you have spend your hard earned money (or your parents hard earned money) on the gaming console that is the best in the world. Each has it's pros and cons. The 360 has a decent price that doesn't hurt and good graphics but it has an over heating problem I am now on my 3rd due to this. The Wii has the new control system that everyone seems to love but lacks in graphics and great games that are not party games. The PS3 has great graphics but was to featured full so ended up with a price tag that no parent wants to spend and most kids don't make that kind of money.

Why not just buy what works for you and be happy and stop knocking the other guy just because he spent his money on what makes him happy. In 20 years who is going to care about this anyways (oh you will have something new to ***** about.)

# Um, 10 minutes? — Guest 2007-06-18 07:39

I will admit that the Wii needs mroe games, but compared to the PS3, the Wii is god. No, not in hardware (of course, as the PS3 has mastered that department), but in the current game titles.

Anyways, the point is that yo ucan't reall yjudge a game after 10 minutes, maybe no teven for a hour or two. Okami (for the PS2) is one of the best games I've ever played (if not "the" best). However, it took awhile to get into it because the start is slow. But, after the first boss, your hooked. A 40 hour game.

# That's just complete bull. — Guest 2007-06-18 12:01

Sony catch up... in the mean time the other consoles will just what... stop selling completely? That just can't happen.

And a price cut to $ 199 or less? Does this guy even know what he's talking about? Imagine that! That's around a 60% price cut! And I suppose both Microsoft and Nintendo will keep their prices at the same level to let Sony catch up?

By 2011, both MS and Nintendo will have another console out and the PS3 is going to have another round at a fresh new batch of Next-Gen consoles to compete with.... and it's supposed to win?

Seriously?

# wii — Guest 2007-06-20 10:59

when game developers learn the mechanics of the wii; the nunchuck, wii mote, and limits of graphic capabilities; and when nintendo learns to open it up a little more; internet channel downloadablity, higher video file support, faster updates, and maybe remote extensions; people could actually get in shape while playing video games.

the 360 and ps3 are pretty, with all the numbers that us gaming dorks love. the wii, well, it's just completely changed the game.

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Pachter: "Wii 2" in a few years, PS3 will eventually win by 2011

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