Pachter: Guitar Hero 3 sales will slow when Rock Band is released |
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Activision recently raised its forecasts for its third quarter and the fiscal year, raising its estimate by more than US$ 200 million which prompted Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter to give his own prediction.
Pachter earlier predicted that the game will win over Rock Band (PS3, PS2, Xbox 360). He says that it will sell 7.5 million units this year, and adds that when Rock Band is released, Guitar Hero 3: Legends of Rock (Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, Wii, PC) sales will decline to 6.3 million units.
Pachter predicts that the Guitar Hero franchise will earn US$ 550 million for Activision by the end of the fiscal year. He also notes some doubt in the investor's part for the next fiscal year seeing as their games this year is tough to top.
Pachter remains optimistic though, saying that he expects that the industry will experience a growth of 17% the following year, and core revenues for Activision can grow to up to 20%. He expects more successful sequels to their IPs in the future:
We expect sequels to Spider-Man and Shrek to generate another $80 million or so, and expect the James Bond game to generate another $100 – 150 million. Distribution should account for another $400 million, bringing overall revenues (excluding Guitar Hero and new franchises) to around $1.540 – 1.590 billion.
We expect the three Dreamworks games, Madagascar 2, Kung Fu Panda and Monsters vs. Aliens to generate at least $100 million more than this year's Bee Movie game, and believe that the two new superhero games (titles unannounced) could generate another $100 – 150 million. Thus, without Guitar Hero, Activision should be in a position to deliver $1.740 – 1.840 billion in revenue.
Via GameDaily
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Comments [refresh]
is he saying that when a game gets to be around a month old and a new one comes out that is similar people may buy that one instead, but still may buy the older one because it already has an established name! WOW. i want his job now!
Yeah he truly is a great mind for being able to work this stuff out ALL IN HIS HEAD!
Punch Pachter Flash game...I know someone out there can make it.
Here's what I envision:
Mike Patcher (I hate his spelling) Punchout. And, it's the player versus Patcher and what he does...he doesn't punch...he spouts out these stupid predictions in Mike Tyson's voice and the trick is to PUNCH the crap out of him before he finishes his predictions. That's Round 1.
Round 2. He's on that GameTrailers show and they begin to ask the boring questions and instead of listening to this moron tell us things we don't care about...we just Punch the crap out of him and all the panelists...and give a little to the host too for thinking of it and spelling Jeff with a G.
Round 3. We drag their asses to the unemployment line and kick their asses until they sign up for real jobs.
-- This is for entertainment purposes only. Thank you for reading. And, someone make this game!
Both games are out already.