John Carmack: Sony likely to kick off next console generation |
John Carmack has been in the news a lot lately. Most recently, the id Software co-founder shared some of his thoughts on who he thinks will be the first to roll out an eighth-generation console. His bet? Sony will be out of the gate first.
In an interview with CD Action, Carmack explained that it seems likely that Sony will release a new console first to make sure that the head start the Xbox 360 got won't be a factor again:
The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things. Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely.
As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next gen console comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later.
Carmack also said that he expects at least one console geared solely toward digital distribution (in other words, no optical media) would be released.
I think there's a decent chance that one of the next gen consoles will be without optical media... the uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected.
Translations courtesy of Edge Online.
Related articles:
- Pachter predicts: this is the last consoles race; analysts disagree
- Microsoft: this generation of consoles will have longer life cycle
- Ubisoft: next generation of consoles coming 2012
Via CD Action
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Comments [refresh]
When it comes to home consoles, he is about as wrong as he could possibly be. However, the only thing that will make his statement correct will be the PSP2, which will be released before the end of the lifespan of the DS, 360, Wii or PS3. Still, pretty clueless.
i smell a war brewing......... what the hell i'm just gonna start it off for fun
PS3 sucks huge monkey balls
"at least one console geared solely toward digital distribution (in other words, no optical media) would be released."
This I keep hearing but is it really realistic? for one thing
do enough people have the internet speed and bandwidth to aquire full games that way or even want to?
Over 23 MILLION people disagree with you. How sad is that? LOL
Sad face clickin' time! +D
Most people still want a hard copy. Full digital distribution isn't gonna happen for a long long time.
How is it that Sony is going to release another console when the PS2 is still going? Is the xbox? Nope. I don't see why it can't be the same for the PS3.
I would have loved to read the whole article, but an ad for Jesus kept popping up over the first paragraph. As for digital only distribution, I'd go for it, but you'll need to give me at least a terabyte of storage room for cheap. And we all know that isn't too far off.
Except that to do that for everyone is gonna be super hard. Even right now people still have crap internet.
I disagree. Sony often stated that the PS3 is a console meant to last for a long time. They included Blu-Ray because they kew games are getting bigger and bigger.
The xbox 360 on the other hand, is one year older, uses a format that is obsolete. Additionally, it's Microsoft, Vista lasted only 2 years. I can see extending that lifespan with good software support, though.
My bet is that Nintendo starts the eighth-console generation with a HD compatible Wii. I predict that it will have Blu-Ray included, but that are just my two cents.
wrong. companies are aware that hard copies might die soon, and there are people already investing in alternative ways. have a look at www.zeeboinc.com
regardless of emergent market or mobile network or any other crap one might say, it is the first sign that digital will come to stay.
get firefox + adblock addon :)
Some people have crap internet. I don't usually have any problems. If it's a gig or bigger I just leave it to download while I do other stuff. I would really like to see a digital console that is mainly kiddy games for my boy. A 5 year old and discs don't mix very well sometimes, and kiddy games would typically be smaller downloads. Just a thought.
Digital distribution will not be feasible until at least 2015, when the majority of people have high speed internet connections and a TB of storage x 60 million people is financially realistic.
Come on, I want to play a game I buy RIGHT AWAY, not 3 days later when all 100 gigs of HD-madness are on a hard drive.
No the PS4 is not coming out probally till like 2014 or 2016.
I sold him a copy of Chameleon Twist on N64. haha
Maybe affordable 1TB SSD by that time. If we continue with platter type discs home users might even have 4-8TB HDD.
@joemontana03
wrong. Last I checked less then 15% of the US has bandwidth that can support mass digital download.
We're a LONG WAY OFF from download only solutions. A LONG way off!
@NeoHumpty
The problem with that is, for MOST people they would have to leave it for a week!!! Then God help them if something went wrong!!!
seems everyone agrees he's wrong...
he should stick to writing engines that take too long to make it to market.
I really don't want to see a DD-only console ever, but I guess it will happen eventually. DD gives complete control of the prices to whoever controls the service, and only them. Have you seen games on demand on 360? They want $30 for friggin COD2... I can buy that on disc on eBay for about $6...
Steam is a little better on prices, but it's still waaaaay above the used hard copy market. If I can always find a used copy with disc/box/manual for about half the price of a digital copy, why would I use a DD service?
But I guess it works, since Steam is very successful. I guess lots of people really are that lazy that they can't run to a store in 5 mins or click buy it now on ebay and wait for the mail to arrive, even if it means paying 100% more.
Really? what firmware update added that? ;)
seriously though, the ps3 isn't that bad... but it isn't that great either.
now if sony hadn't kept linux from using the GPU i'd have a few of them...
I'm not talking about MGS or FF sized games here. I'm just saying if they would make a system focused toward smaller games. Say a PSkid, or Xboxmini. Something like that. Not all games need to be 10 gigs.
Good call. lol.
I love reading this crap but yeah did i see someone mention the next Wii having Blu RAY lol are you kidding me and the DVD is obsolete that's why i still find DVD's in the front of electronics depts huh? People are not gonna move to another format just because it looks slightly better to the human eye.. For space reasons such as games maybe that makes since but for movies good luck on that
tech grows exponentially and gets cheaper is such a small amount of time. so he's not too far off the mark; pspgo for example. and i wouldn't be suprised if sony was first to go at this either
@ NeoHumpty
???? Neither am I. You said "a gig". That would take most people a WEEK. You do realize that a very large factor or people only have dial up because broadband is not available to them.
Also, a good percentage of console owners don't even have internet. Yet alone a very high percentage have no way of connecting their console to the internet.
I never saw a dial-up modem on my ps3. Maybe that's only on the 160gb model. You're right. Guess I'm the only one that uses PSN. Good thing they keep it running just for me. Thanks, Sony. If I lose my cable internet, will you please send me a dial-up modem so I can continue to support all those games and updates?
I for one can definately see the difference between dvd and blu-ray on my ps3 and 52" lcd tv.. Its huge.
A little better!?!?!?!? Dude Deliverance, the moment you go HD you don't ever want to go back to watching regular movies. Everything I get now is HD. Plus it all really depends on the TV you're using. $400 32" LCD are available now so people should move on.
But I don't think DVD is obsolete just yet due to the number of people still using it and because the price for them dropped causing increase in sales.
i dont think M$ or $ony will make internet a requirement for their sale , that will be a stupid comercial way ,
If you can only see a small difference between an upscaled DVD and a true HD Blu-Ray movie you need to get your eyes checked. The difference is huge, I don't rent anything on DVD anymore if Netflix has it on BDR too
PSN and XBL require DSL or higher sure, but you don't need those services to play games. If DD became the norm and still required DSL or higher people without broadband access couldn't play games period.
Which is another reason Carmack is way off. Probably won't be a decade or so until we see a DD-only console, so many things need to happen for it to work. I still never want to see it tho, the day I'm forced to pay $60-70 for games is probably the day I stop gaming
I'm not talking about a system to rule them all here. It wouldn't even have to be from one of the big 3. I think someone (say Apple) could make a small console with no optical drive. With some good ideas and apps to play with. The price could be a lot cheaper than any of the others, and they could also include itunes, etc. I just don't agree that it COULDN'T happen, and I don't agree that it would absolutely fail. There are any number of ways that it could happen, and yes, there are any number of ways that it could fail. I'm just saying that if they made some good kiddy games, some entertaining platformers and offer a few good apps and music/movie store at a reasonable price, I would be interested. I have my ps3 loaded up with movies and music, but my gf and her kid have no idea how to do that stuff. Point and click would work much better for them.
@NeoHumpty - Seriously? That was your response? Only YOU use PSN? I thought an adult conversation was happening here. I guess not.
As for your last post. That has nothing to do with this article. We already have download only consoles. One of them is in New Zealand if memory serves me right and it's about as successful as the Vii. So that really doesn't mean squat here now does it? Not to mention the games on it are SMALL and OLD and LAME.
You say you do not believe it COULDN'T happen. Yet your reply to my last post completely skipped over all the EXACT reasons it couldn't happen. If you remove:
1. Dial up customers
2. People who have no internet
3. People who can not hook a console up to the internet
Then you have NO CUSTOMER BASE for a successful game console. If Sony or Microsoft or Nintendo only sold the same amount of units as Apple TVs have sold they would drop out of the gaming business.
Just because YOU would do it, doesn't mean it would be successful.
But like I said. I didn't realize I was the only one with high speed. Didn't mean to piss anyone off, I was only talking possibilities of someone doing it right (as in "not a vii"). I apologize for mentioning something I would like to see since I pay for a better connection. I never knew so many people without a connection were on these forums. Think you could forgive me? lol.
And AppleTV was far from a console.
but for the PS4, nope. Imagine having to download and install all 50gbs of the next Metal Gear game. I had enough problems waiting to install the last DMC with 5gb.
You're the only one with a high speed connection?
Who is pissed off?
Who, on this "forum" said they didn't have high speed?
Apple TV not a console? What was the point of that?
What was the point of any of that?
You're the one jumping on people for stating the obvious.
I never jumped on anyone other than your mom. Come up out of her basement and I'll kick your arse for you. Sorry if you read it as if I was being pushy, but I wasn't. I only stated something that I wanted to see. Didn't realize it would upset your gay little world so badly. Heck, I even apologized for whatever it was that rattled your cage. Sorry if all of your friends are hillbillies that don't get no 'nection up in their holler. The only thing I was trying to say was that , yes, right now it would probably fail, but there could be ways that some company could do it to where it would be a viable form of entertainment. I'll go tell your mom to come wipe your tears and butt now, dork.
Yup, I was right, can't have an adult conversation with a dumb kid. Carry on...
t(-_-t)
This is just getting tedious. Sorry, but the days of 'ol Carmack having relevance have long since receded. He's just trying to stir the pot with meaningless and baseless theory, in order to drive attention to Rage. I agree with Musev: how realistic is it that someone (M$, Sony, or N) is going to invest Millions in R-and-D on a device that doesn't have an optical drive (if for nothing else, than for the multimedia value-add aspect of it)? Even if SD cards dropped low enough in price, ... unless the console *itself* is super-powerful AND micro-sized, who's going to say, "Awesome! No CD, DVD, or Blu-ray player! Give me one of those."
--To the aspect of digital download -only: I would consider myself a POWER user of the PSN service (my download list is in the hundreds'). But, that doesn't mean that I *want* all of my game media that way. Like someone else said here, you'll need a hard drive TERRABYTES in size, not 120mb, etc.
that would suck. however, youre thinking in the now. what i'm saying is that in the future, i would even say near future, something like this is possible because technology will get better and it will be cheaper
me too. check your eyeballs
"Over 23 MILLION people disagree with you. How sad is that? LOL "
How many of those people now hate their large monkey ball sucking machine?
Actually, I'm totally taking your side here, bu t I had to comment on it.
The PS3 and 360 are both different machines and have their pros and cons.
POW
if its over 2gigs just say fk dat.
its not like we get to download them in parts, instaed its all at once. OOOOO but your computer frozed right at the end.
Keep your old game consoles. Sega genesesis, SNES, PS1, XBOX,64, theyre better and more reliable. HAHA my genesis will outlive any nextgen console, Heck even my Dreamcast survived. If only i could purchase more games instead of emulating them.
For todays time, its like theyre re-creating video games (the wii). Nobody wants to move forward. All DLC sux, there is none that was convient enough for you to bragg about. I can understand maps, but never for costumes, or the whole entire game!!!
PS. HDDS Fail awwww now you mad.
Oh but someone will say theyre going to buy another. Well you lame for that, you wasting money for unreliable overpriced hardware.
You know what why cant they just stick to video games ONLY. Forget that multitasking crap, playing mp4s, mp3, browsing the internet. Real talk i just wanna play video games. Athough all that extra stuff is awesome, but seriously lets just play some dang games. Blueray??? on a ps3. Man i got a friend with a 60gig got money, and has never owned or rent a blueray movie. In the long run its pointless. Not to mention ive never played a single DVD in my 360.
You know what forget all that, i dont know what to complain about anymore. Videogames??? its whatever, were going to buy whatever we want. Were all just complaining in circles. I would assume the people logged on this site couold create a better game console than sony, microsoft, and nintendo. Like its sooo obvious they do not know what they are doing anymore.
But like i said its whatever, hahaha im gunna buy the pspgo and whatever console microsoft brings out next. :]
i personally think that all though we don't realize it yet, Onlive may happen to be the system which gamers see as the next big thing, weather we like it or not. Besides that, I do feel that Nintendo will be the one to get their system out first because they wil want to make sure that they are the ones innovating and they are the ones that are pushing the industry. I just hope that their system has the technology which gets publishers to see the system as THE system for games, hardcore and non hardcore alike.