i have to agree with this. i think Xbox 360 will have the lead for awhile then the ps3 will catch up but its gonna take awhile

Yeah, I also see the Xbox ahead for a while. 2009 (3 years) seems pretty reasonable in my opinon. One, ps3 has to catch up to the sales Xbox360 already has under its belt since it was released earlier and two, 3 years gives it some time for price drops, maybe somewhere over a hundred bucks so it may be a bit more affordable.

wow..predicitons like that are about as lame as asumtions...do people really think that nintendo is just releacing a consul to make people happy or just to say they have one on the market? F*** no. they want money and they have already taken the steeps to enshure their money...with sony i see 3 things: graphics price and few good games...while with nintendo i see II things: games and people. i would rather rely on people to support my consil than graphics..i say good luck to sony

i think the wii will take the cake, i think in a year the wii will be 1st and 2-3 yrs the ps3 will be 2nd and 360 last, btw i prefer ps3 anyday cuz i hav a ps2

His prediction could work, as well as any other predictions, but I believe there may not be a loser in this war at all. It may actually be the closest console war ever seen by gamers.

Your right, the Wii is the wild card I do believe that it willl be successful no matter what. I, myself, am pretty interested in it. But heres the thing, the Wii is cheap, and is more of a party, everyone plays oriented system. No doubt it will sell, and even if you have a Xbox360 or ps3 you'll probably eventually own one (or know someone that does).



The way I see it, the Wii is on its own category. The Xbox360 and PS3 are in theirs and its a war between those two. These two aim for not only the casual gamers but the hardcore ones also. So in the long run its a matter of Wii and either PS3 or Xbox360 that is left. The Wii, even if it sells millions more than either of the two is not a direct threat to the other systems because it is in its own category.

These people need to stop wasting their time with stupid predictions and wait untile the damn consoles come out... Xbox 360 is the only one out so it's the best plain and simple

I didn't read the article. Just the headline. I'm going to go out on a limb and say, no, no it won't. If anything the Nintendo Wii with it's suprisingly innovative peripherals, low prices, and built in web browsing capabilities via Opera will grab the market over the next decade. The Xbox360 while capable of producing impress images simply isn't built to withstand the future of games. Too much focus was placed on bringing a multimedia entertainment system to the market rather than delivering the video gaming experience. I'm not selling Microsoft short, just being realistic.



(For anyone who would dare be immmature enough to label me a fanboy, I would prefer the PS3 but due to the pricing and the fact that it has yet to hit the shelves I have excluded it from this brief rant)

26....you own an xbox 1.5...it plays THIS gen media...dvd9...and if u pay 200or 250 for the hd player...ull only be able to play movies on it...it wont play hddvd games which means the games are gonna be super limited in terms of memory...no 1080p....and wack ars games...dude...until the ps3 comes out...we wont see wat the lamebox 360 has to offer...ill stick w/ my saturn...

thats horrible logic and talk, bad fanboy bad

By the way things are goin for the xbox 360 (In Sales), its kinda hard to predict that xbox will be winner. The Wii will be strong in the beggining but I'll fade in time.

CANT SPELL!!! hahahaha! delete me again, QJ

...dude...dont be a dic.k......people can have an opinion on consoles without being fools!...just because they have blind faith in one or another doesnt make them fools...your just closed minded....claiming you know somethin...like who is gonna win...is equally closed minded...

now.. im sorry.. but i fail to believe that ps3 will sell that much more then the wii when the ps3 price is 2 1/2 times as expensive seeing that the DSL is already closing in on the 3 million unit point in less then a year



as it is possible that the 360 will dominate for a while.. the small count of the wii is not realistic considering the hype that surrounds it and the general negitivity that surrounds the ps3..



but only time will tell

dude...you have no idea wat ur talking about...if anything im a hater...not a fanboy...and dude...wats w/ the cake analogy?....its simple....every new console has brought w/ it new media format....snes..cart...ps1...cd....ps2/ xbox...dvd...the "new" xbox runs the same media as the old one...does that sound next gen to you? and if u do want to run next gen MOVIES...you gotta cough up an extra 200(at least) bucks....(which would make the 360 price seem...a lot closer to the ps3)the games that were first on the ps2 were on cd roms...and even then they had a bunch of filler dummy files...now...both ps2 and xbox games pack the dvd roms to the max...w/ some exeptions of course...so ya...for now...dvds are fine...but wat about in 2 years?....i guess ur lookin forward to the xbox 720...

He can't really say that Xbox 360 will be in the lead until PS3 in 2009 because we're nowhere near that yet.

I hope they all do well and have a long (6-10 year) life span!!!!!!!

With the PS3 pricing and all of the hype about the Wii, I am positive more than 6.5 million are going to sell. You know that at least 10 million Japanese are going to be picking it up with 19 million japanese already owning a DS.

If you read the article you will see that it's for North America, and the numbers aren't sales predictions but a prediction of the total number of consoles bought. It's just that QJ makes it out that North America is the only important nation in the world and that what happens there is what happens everywhere.

Only 35 million game consoles sold in 3 years in a growing industry that has sold over 120 million game consoles in 6 years.

Some of you commenters are down right ridiculous.



"dvd9 isn't next gen, can't play 1080p" - like any of you actually have 1080p televisions, its a moot point.



i just got a 1080i 60 inch tv like 2 years ago so im not about to go out an buy a 1080p tv.



cable tv won't be higher than 1080i for like 10 years at least, so big *****ing deal with the 1080p.



ps3 isn't going to be a disaster, it will do perfectly fine. but sony's smugness is starting to piss me off. I don't appreciate a company telling me what I do and do not want. I myself will not be getting a ps3 since my roomate is getting one. I already have a 360. Those haters going waaa 360 has no NEXT gen games...obviously you have never played GRAW which is basically the best game ever ( i like it more than halo2).



so fanboys shutup already! im sick of this *****! don't complain about things you will never use! especially that 1080p nonsense! (im willing to be the amount of people with 1080p televisions is less than 1%).

actually, i *am *getting rid of my PS2 when i get my PS3 (i gave my PS1 to my friend after i got my PS2, because her PS1 was broken), but i'm probably going to give my PS2 to my fiance, so it won't be going far. *however* if she's playing Castlevania: Curse of Darkness on the PS2, and i want to play Prince of Persia: The Two Thrones, it's nice to know i'd be able to just pop it into my PS3, and not have to take the PS2 away from her (probably leading to no sex later).



also, i don't have the room to hook up my NES, SNES, Genesis, DreamCast, Playstation 2, X Box, Gamecube, and PS3 all up at the same time. i like being able to break that down to two or three systems. it's a convenience thing. my apartment and entertainment stand just doesn't have the room to support those 8 systems (ten when i get a 360 and Wii). so yeah, backwards compability is real important to me. back when i got my PS2, i didn't play PS2 games all the time. i'd pop in Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, Final Fantasy Tactics, Crono Cross, Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil 2, etc. once more PS2 games out, those games got moved to the backburner, but until more PS3 games come out, backward compatibility do me just fine.



also, some PS1 games (that i haven't played yet) don't work on my slimline PS2. so i'm hoping that that will be rectified on my PS3.

first off i own a 360 and teh 400 for it is alot and teh above average gamer isn't going to buy the cheap versions of either ps3 or xbox 360 so the 300 adn 500 prices should be ignored in my opinion at least and i dont think the 600 for a ps3 is asking to much for it and i eventually plan on owning one but not at launch unless for some reason i make a lot more money than i think i am so in both cases there is a lot of good features for both i personally owned an xbox (sold it to pay for rest of 360) and still own a ps2 and in fact once a gamecube that i liked but without teh games to back it up i got rid of it when i finally bought an xbox (i know im not teh only one but i just love the halo series) so in reality within the first year of the wii being out i'll probaly own one due to its low price adn my college budget it will fit in wonderfully and that like gamecube there will eb games that everyone can play adn be good enough to make it fun at going back to halo ther comes a time when u cant just take any old friend and get them to play some halo lan at college the games just aren't the same so in the respect the wii i think will be a suprise (well not reall a suprise the features and the price are a hige draw and the fact taht nintendo to me at least is more of teh kid system adn there are plenty of kids out there who love games and parents who grew up playing the nintendo games and if i were a parent i would feel much better if my kid had a wii and that selection of games rather than the ps3 adn xbox 360 games) so on that note all thes consoles will find there place and in the end i dont think sales will really matter as long as good consoles adn good games are made throughout this race and if quality is put out its worth paying for it

i kinda agree but i feel the wii will do alot better cuz japan is gonna buy a sh*t load and i think its getting way too little credit and is getting really under estimated. and ps3 is ofcoarse gonna kick everyones asses, followed by the wii and the 360 dead last.

I think the Wii will be successful because a lot of people that rarely played video games or never played before will find the system intriguing, just by watching someone play, or experiencing it themselves. For hardcore gamers who have grown accustomed to a certain way of controlling games probably not so much. Some hardcore gamers may find it tiring, and would rather sit down for many hours like the way they have been doing it for many years. Except for the occassional hardcore gamer that actually finds swinging a sword more interesting and immersive than pressing a button. What you will see happening is people who rarely ever play games will find the Wii control system very instinctive and intuitive, but many veteran gamers will be frustrated with the controls because they have to unlearn what they have learned after doing it the same way all those years. Many of them will probably give up early on because they don't have the patience to adapt to a new control scheme. If the Nintendo DS is any indication to the future of gaming, there's going to be alot of new and interesting people in the gaming community whether you like it or not.

Yeah, i sorta agree i am a nintendo fan boy but being resonable the 360 is going to be the victor with the ps3 and wii fircely competing for 2nd place, because of the ps3's huge fan base, and the wii being mere pocket change it could be either.



But i know for sure a wii's gonna like mighty fine next to my 360, to bad theres not enought room for a goerge forman grill ah i mean ps3

No Console that was priced at more than 300 have been successful period. PS3 is a great system but the price is too high Sony accuses microsoft of coming out too early they are coming out too early PS3 is coming out one year earlier than it is suppossed to if they came out later it would be $400 - $500 not $500 - $600 they rushed because the Xbox 360 came out and they would have been 2 years late in that case Playstation 3 will lose, but even with the early release Playstation 3 is still going to lose because people are still going to wait for the Playstation 3 price to drop which will be in mid to the end of 2007 which by that time will be too late because Xbox 360 will have a stronghold on the videogame market even in Japan.

funny that u "chose" to not counter my argument...seems like u kinda ran out of things to say. look im no fanboy, i buy the best value, and as we have seen...its not always the case that the most powerful (xbox) system is the best value. the worst console came out on top (ps2) but it was the best value. oh and yaz...please dont make claims about me...especially cuz u seem like a smart guy...dont ACT ignorant

actually, Sony did consider the idea of launching the PS3 in 2007, because the PS2 was still going strong sales wise. i can't remember where i read that, but it was probably ign.com, since that's the site i read the most. and if the average console life is 5 to 6 years, why did Microsoft release the 360 in 2005, roughly *3* to *4* years after the original X Box launched? by your definition of a consoles life cycle, the X Box still had another year or two to go before it was time for a new iteration. sounds to me like they launched prematurely.



and i can and do blame Microsoft for the cost of the PS3. the next gen war was begun 1 year too soon. the PS2, X Box, and GC had plenty of life left in them, and definitely the PS2, judging by the high profile titles coming out for the console this year and next year. the fact that the PS3 was pushed back to November shows that Sony wasn't ready to mass produce the thing this year. which is why they're scrambling to get that November launch going asap.



if Sony had waited into spring 2007 (which they've said they had considered doing (again, check the ign archives for the actual articles and quotes), Microsoft would have had the Christmas 2005 season, and the Christmas 2006 season to sell 360s virtually unopposed. not to mention the arrival of the Nintendo Wii. Arrogant as Sony is, even they knew that if they let those two have Christmas 2006, they'd lose too much market share. Sony says a lot of things, and yes, they planned to release the PS3 in March of 2006 in Japan, but realistically, they knew that that wasn't possible. they hadn't even begun production of the individual components needed to create the system. a company that was planning on a March 06 launch would have released knews back in 2005 that production of the key PS3 components were underway. hell, it wasn't until E3 2006, which takes place in *May* that Sony finally revealed the final specs for the system. despite what they've said, they had no plans whatsoever to release the PS3 in March 06.



the life expectancy of game consoles were roughly 5 to 6 years, but that was before gaming technology got as advanced as it is now. Sony had been working on the Cell for nearly 4 years. how long do you think it's going to take to develop the *next* processor? as the technology gets more and more complex, the gestation period of consoles will get longer. from the NES to Genesis, it was roughly 4 years, from the SNES to the PS1, it was roughly 5 years, from the PS1 to the PS2 it was roughly 5 years, from the PS2 to the PS3, it's 6 years. see the trend? Sony spent a lot of money on the Cell processor, more money than they spent on the emotion engine, and they made sure that they created something flexible enough to go beyond the 5-6 year cycle. i doubt we see the PS4 anytime before 2014.

after this i'm done debating the point. my question is do you regularly read magazines devoted to playstation specifically?



if you do, then you may remember that a short time after the PS2 launched, Kaz Hirai or someone in a similar position stated that the PS3 would probably be seen sometime around 2007, 2006 at the earliest.



i wouldn't just spout off these things if they didn't have any basis in fact.



the reason why i say Microsoft had something to do with the PS3's cost (which i thought would be plain by now) is because the PS3 is indeed launching 6 months to a year too early as a direct result of Microsoft launching the 360 in November.



Sony has stated (maybe not a thousand times), that the PS3 wouldn't be ready until 2007. Microsoft saw that as an opportunity to get the upper hand by releasing the 360 a full *two* years before the PS3's expected launch (not confirmed launch, just expected based off of Sony's comments prior to 2005). Sony had to counter by bumping the release of the PS3 to early 2006, cutting into Microsoft's head start. they realized that that just wasn't econnomically or physically feasable, so they moved the Japanese launch to November, when they realised that it must launch in all territories in 2006 or hand over the Next Gen crown to Microsoft.



since the PS3 is releasing *this* year, instead of next year, the cost of Cell and Blu Ray components are more expensive than they would have been, say, in 2007. BECAUSE OF THAT, the PS3 has the hefty price tag. if the console had released in 2007, it probably would have been $50 to $100 less than what it is now.



there. i can't state it any plainer than that.



as for the Blu Ray HD DVD war, HD DVD has failed to take off, prior to it's competition even launching. Sony could launch their Blu Ray players in 2007 and it still wouldn't have an impact on the slow start of HD DVD. if Microsoft had added an HD DVD player to the 360, there would be 3.8 million HDDVD players in peoples homes right now. since they didn't there are only a few thousand HD DVD players sold thus far. when the PS3 launches in November, it will sell out of however many million units Sony manages to ship, thus establishing Blu Ray into those peoples homes. couple that with the fact that Blu Ray has the support of 7 out of the 8 major motion picture studios, along with the Porn Industry, and HD DVD only has the support of 3 of the 8, and Blu Ray clearly has the advantage. Sony didn't have anything to worry about in regards to competition. much like the PS2, there will be a larger library of Blu Ray movies because of the ammount of support it's getting. Sony knows this, so they don't care if Blu Ray gets delayed. come November, the PS3 will be the cheapest Blu Ray player on the market. and those that want a home theatre system with the largest collection of movies will smartly choose Blu Ray (or just stick to standard DVDs, actually).



anyway, i'm done arguing. you don't see my point, and i don't see yours, so i'm walking away.

***** ANDERSON! hes a ***** bag...

360 is amazing and i think it will stay dominant and the wii with alot of fans excited it will probably sell more than 6.5mill with the release date nov.19.06. but with the ps3 will be last to appear and hoping that this will help them but with the price and the problems with being powerful enough to play hi-def but cant is pretty stupid, and if i remember correctly the gamecube came out after the other 2 systems and it withered away it to almost nothing.in my opinion i think 360 will stay atop the video game ladder then wii with ps3 close behind