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Analysts: UMD on PSP-4000 not surprising, Sony has horrible luck in creating new media

Posted Oct 28, 2009 at 7:11PM EST by Mabie A.

Listed in: PSP Tags: Betamax, EEDAR, memory stick, PSP-3000, Sony
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Sony PSP family - Image 1 


Last August, we reported on this "insider info" pertaining to an alleged PSP-4000, which will not only phase out the PSP-3000, but will also revive the neglected UMD format. Now, even the industry's foremost analysts are saying they won't be surprised at all if this turns out to be true. You know what they say: where there's smoke, there's sure to be barbecue.

Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities and Jesse Divinich of EEDAR both believe that there might be something to this PSP-4000 rumor. Said Pachter, "I think it is possible and likely that the PSP-4000 will support UMD, and I think that Sony will support whichever formats make it the most money."

He furthers:

It's an interesting dilemma. Without question, there is room for packaged products and the benefits of digital-only are probably more offset by foregone sales of UMDs. I think that the next version will likely have both, with a disc drive that uses no power if the user is palying a download game. The question is whether it's too bulky, but my guess is that they can fit some flash in there, or equip the game with a 16GB memory stick and consumers will be perfectly happy.


On the other hand, Divinich is of the opinion that if Sony were to follows its wants, they would completely drop the UMD format from their line-up once and for all. However, what's keeping them from completely letting go of the UMD is the fact that there are consumers out there who still want it more than the new download-only format implemented in the PSP Go.

Ultimately, business must meet the demand of the consumers. If the PSP Go fails to latch on as a standard model for the PSP, Sony has no choice but to continue to support the UMD format. If Sony had their way, they would eradicate the UMD standard in favour of digital distribution. Sony's primary goal with the UMD format was for it to catch on in other media players, unfortunately it didn't.


He also took note of  how "Sony has had horrible luck when it comes to creating media, standards," making reference to other failed precedents such as Betamax, Sony Dynamic Digital Sound and MiniDisc. According to him, these were all "formats that failed to gain mass popularity, even though they were formats that provided superior technology to the current standard."

For what it's worth, Divinich said that the PSP Go is actually "three years ahead of its time, the same way the PS3 was ahead of its time." Like all those mad geniuses ignored during their lifetime, perhaps? "Regardless of hte success of the PSP Go, ten years from now when the industry is mostly digital, we will look back and single out Sony and its PSP Go as being the first console to push us in the digital direction."

I think Sony would prefer looking back and seeing all the sales they generated from the PSP Go much more than looking back and seeing how the PSP Go was a mere footnote in digital distribution's history, regardless of how "important" a footnote it is.



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Comments 


 
# God I hope soTechni 2009-10-28 20:23
I hate the idea of a download-only future.

PSP Go sucks mostly due to the lack of UMD

And PSP2 NEEDS UMD. Preferably Bluray-based UMD.



Downloads put too much limits back on developers, the same limits UMD removed.

Reply
 

 
# Why don't they...FiremanSam 2009-10-28 20:24
If Sony were thinking they could kill off the UMD but supply games on read only memory sticks. Sony own the memory stick format and they could be mass produced quite cheaply. Plus they could be supported in existing PSP's including the "PSP Blow". Or are cartridge type games covered by a Mario patent?

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# A few problems with your suggestionchessboxer 2009-10-28 20:47
How do you save your games (on a PSP1000 - 3000) if the memory stick is read only?



The PSP now supports 2 types of memory stick (pro duo in the 1000 - 3000 and the m2 in the Go) so would publishers be forced into supporting 2 physical formats as well as digital distribution?

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# @ chessboxerSolidJedi 2009-10-28 21:37
That problem could have been addressed if Sony listen to reason. Case in point the PSP 3000. The technology of the PSP Go already existed for a few years, but wasn't implemented on the models because Sony loves to sell you the same thing with tech they could have easily put on the previews model. They could have made the PSP 3000 like a PSP Go, with internal flash memory (much higher than 16gb, that's just not enough when some games are 1.6gb in memory in ISO format). They could have perfected the way UMD drives read, so there was less sound and less power consumption. They could have started to put games out in Memory sticks, with the opportunity of making the games bigger and with better graphics, and then save data goes inside the flash memory of the PSP. Blue tooth, more processing speed, better wifi, mic etc. All that could have been put on the PSP 3000, hell on the PSP 2000 even. But no. Sony loves to put out a new PSP version every year because it knows people will buy, even though is the SAME THING with a few add ons that could have been added earlier. Hence why we are having this discussion.

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# HehGhostroo 2009-10-28 22:31
If there's smoke, it's probably Michael Pachter ON the BBQ.

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# I was thinking..rlm42 2009-10-28 23:44
What they need to do if it is even possible is to sell DVD's/CD's containing encrypted PSP Games where you just buy and then take home and transfer onto PSP with some kind of sony software.. That way consumers don't have to download.

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# that is the exact reason why Sony is making games N U are nothouaruto 2009-10-29 00:57
according to your logic Sony should center everything around yet the DSi, Wii can remain reused recycled old material, and xbox RRoD problem can remain..............and you sill believe Sony should push its technolngy to the max while the lower technology stuff still out sells theirs.................u do not get it

1) it is not cost effective as perfecting all that does not guarantee higher sales 2 make up 4 the money invested in implementing the technology



2) the DSi and Wii being the top selling cnsole proves that all the great techonolgy advances mean little to generate sales and profits..........which discourages anyone with a brain to make great handheld tenology progress



3) the masses are not ready to accept the new changes in short periods of time......look at all the bull$H!T sourrounding the psp go

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# Well...PSPnoObmOd 2009-10-29 02:01
Why not just put all the games onto a memory stick produo... and just put, like, 1gb on flash memory or something so you can save the game and then through media go, be able to out-put the data or send it via Ad-Hoc. Also, if they did use just memory sticks and download and NO UMD, then the games could be bigger than the 1.8gb a UMD can hold... simple really... its not too hard to put a game onto a memory stick!

Reply
 

 
# wowreyknow 2009-10-29 02:11
2 physical formats on 1 console. in this recession.



sony must be committing financial suicide.

Reply
 

 
# The PSP GO doesnt suit everyonejackobaldy 2009-10-29 03:53
over here in the UK there are loads of people who dont have wifi and have psp's this means they cant connect their psp to the internet to download anything. they would have to use a computer to download things but the thing is there are lots of kids like 5 years old who own psp's and dont have wifi and dont know how to download games and transfer them to the psp using a computer. so if there are kids who want a cool sliding psp go and they dont hae wifi then they will get a surprise when their umds dont fit and they cant get games from anywhere.

Reply
 

 
# ...leo9891 2009-10-29 04:21
Sony is thinking that Digital Distribution is supposed to catch on like a wildfire, but seeing as they are the first to implement Digital Distribution for Full Games, its going to take a while.



They have to give it some time to catch onto other people, I know there are people who like the "Download-Only" and then there are some who don't, but sooner or later those "some who don't" will end up either liking the download-only or they will have to learn to deal with it.



The electronic world is evolving, the next step is Digital Distribution.



They just have to keep the PSP-3000 and the PSP Go! selling next to eachother and sooner or later, most people will be grabbing the PSP Go!



I like how the Go! looks and all, and I don't mind the download-only either, it just doesn't suit me right now.

Reply
 

 
# I don't getspitfyre1985 2009-10-29 06:15
Why Sony would have even made the psp GO if they didn't plan on sticking with digital distribution from now on. I mean they burned every single customer that already owned a psp by making our old umd games useless on the handheld so why would you then make a system after that with both? It seems to me if they were going to use that strategy they should have done it the other way around. Put out the psp that has a umd drive and digital distribution first, then the next iteration would be only digital. All I know is that I am not going to be buying another psp until they give it a better processor and a second analog stick. Until then I am sticking with my good old 1000.

Reply
 

 
# huh?kenbonana 2009-10-29 06:50
"Put out the psp that has a umd drive and digital distribution first, then the next iteration would be only digital"



you are aware that all the psp's can log in to psn and download full games now right so that means that psp 1000 - 3000 can use both if you still have umd's buy the psp 3000 and not the psp go! sony said they are still make psp 3000's even after the release of the psp go

Reply
 

 
# memory stick based gamesSembazuru 2009-10-29 06:57
What would work is a memory stick that has two types of memory. A ROM area for the game code, and a RAM area for save-games and DLC. If Sony was thinking, that is...

Reply
 

 
# hmm...KylBlz 2009-10-29 07:06
spitfyre is kinda right, the processer speed of the current line is dissapointing. i like the seperate vfpu like in 1k-3k, but they need to be faster. Also what kind of gaming console has 64mb of ram anyway? give us 512. however these would be PSP2 spec upgrades, doing that with the '4000' would be illogical

Reply
 

 
# ...Sembazuru 2009-10-29 07:07
Just because the Go is available doesn't mean the 3000's are off the shelf. While, yes, the Go is Digital Distribution only, the 3000 isn't UMD only. With a fat enough (or multiple) memory sticks the 3000 can also reasonably utilize Digital Distribution. That said, I still prefer UMDs for my 3000 most of the time. (I did down load some games because I'm going to be spending over 30 hours straight going through various airports next week. I'll have a couple of my UMDs, but the downloaded games will be much kinder to my battery so I'll have to camp next to a power outlet less often.)

Reply
 

 
# Simple.Foolmonkey 2009-10-29 07:44
It would cost a TON more to do that.

Reply
 

 
# Well...well....well...Atownaction 2009-10-29 09:01
I guess sales for the PSP GO wasnt what Sony thought it was going be and now we need our loyal and faithful customers that owns our UMD games back so they can buy our new handheld PSP 4000 that has maybe a larger screen or its very thin......oh boo hoo thats what they get when they think everyone has access to a wifi or wireless internet to download their content in the PSN store......I think its kinda funny...HA HA HA!!! PSP 2000 model was their best product hands down!!!!!

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# ... @ craitPeaceWalker 2009-10-29 12:31
comment fail -_-".

Reply
 

 
# ...PeaceWalker 2009-10-29 12:35
I honestly don't see a Blu ray UMD anytime soon, but it still sounds cool :)

Reply
 

 
# umm...Dark_Skai 2009-10-29 13:47
didn't Sony mention that they weren't abandoning the UMD format when they "first" annouced the Go? I remember Hirai saying that, and that's why they weren't going to phase out the 3000 (unless of course they release the 4000), seriously how can I become an analyst I can do there job better then they can.

Reply
 

 
# wellleq 2009-10-29 14:03
The problem with that is we have a very thorough understanding of how to rip CD and DVD images and copy them onto new CD/DVD's. And if sony was to encrypt them in the same way that they encrypt PS1/PS2 games, then you would need a special device to read and decrypt them for transfer onto the psp.

Reply
 

 
# Why nottreyjazz 2009-10-29 15:36
Release games on PSN like Undead Knights and people can download it to their MSPDs... Oh crap nm...

Reply
 

 
# Sony is still irate about piracyT-Max Blaze 2009-10-29 18:38
Hence the reason why they R dishing out new PSP iterations so frequently, not because they know you will buy it. The reason for remodels of previous sony consoles are different to that of the psp. Like how every PSP model has a different hardware feature better than a previous to stop PSP hackers giving leeway to piracy Sony just as much as every other company absolutely hates piracy but cannot stop piracy even if they died a martyr.



My opinion based on some facts tell me th@ Sony came up with the idea to make the PSP go from the fact that piracy went ridiculous since about the end of 2OO5 and remember that survey they sent out last year?, they wanted to see if game sales would take off if ppl rather digital gaming formats than UMD since they heard ppl *****ing about how the UMD format fails. It was also a suitable idea for them b/c they thought that pirates liked it digital and thought they would buy the games if they were on psn. Wrong!!! They like their games free and straight from home.



So though Sony set a new standard in VG distribution with the PSP go, they are gonna have to w8 nd see how it takes off. They are jumping too quick to a psp 4000. They need to stop at GO and move to a PSP2 b4 they screw themselves over.

Reply
 

 
# Sony has the PSP and the PSP Go!captain jaster 2009-10-29 18:44
I think sony is gonna keep the 3000 for awhile because the only things the Go! has is blue tooth and that display panel closed ability.But the PSP 3000 has the UMD support.So there kinda equal in features as far as i know.They both have 64MB of internal OS memory and im not sure how much ram,but they both look like they load things at the same speed.So that being said,Sony doesnt have a good reason to make the 4000.just my 2 cent.

Reply
 

 
# PSP 4000 or PSP2 in 2010?rlm42 2009-10-29 22:03
Word has it that the next gen PSP will be coming out next year and features a PowerVR SGX543 graphics card.



Source: http://brightsideofnews.com/news/2009/10/16/exclusive-sony-psp2-arriving-in-20102c-features-powervr-sgx543-graphics.aspx

Reply
 

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