Pachter responds to other analysts' Grand Theft Auto 4 sales predictions |
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Recently, Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst predicted that Rockstar North's Grand Theft Auto 4 (Xbox 360, PlayStation 3) could sell 13 million copies this year. However, not all analysts feel the same way. Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter said that, based on his numbers and figures, GTA 4 might sell at a slightly lower rate than what the others have predicted.
Pachter said that while hitting this number is possible, his estimated installed base of 16.3 million PlayStation 3s and 21.3 million Xbox 360s at the end of the year coupled by his guess for the upcoming video game's attach rate tell a different story:
In my view, the game will be hard pressed to capture 33 percent share of all consoles in the addressable market, and the 13 million estimate from Hudson Square implies a 35 percent attach rate.
To further justify his statements, he cited that Halo 3 (52% attach rate) sold 5.04 million units since launch and Gears of War (28.5% attach rate) sold 2.74 million. He then proceeded to make his prediction on Rockstar North's upcoming game, "my guess is that GTA IV will attach at closer to a 30 percent rate than to a 50 percent attach rate, but itÂ’s certainly reasonable to think differently."
And so, we're down to two basic facts: Daniel Ernst says 35% attach rate (based on Pachter's numbers of user base), while Pachter says it'll actually just be 30%.
We're going to have to wait whose predictions hold true once GTA IV gets released this April 29. 'Til then, keep checking back here for more updates.
Buy: [GTA IV (PS3)]
Buy: [GTA IV (Xbox 360)]
Via videogaming247
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Comments
As long as the game is in my console, I don't care about that.
i hate these prediction from important ppl. anybody can come out and say anything about how things will sell yet we listen only to certain people. does he get paid to do this? if so then i think i should get involved in this
I think you should include that this is for the United States, I would find it hard to believe he (Patcher) was talking World Wide when you concider hes saying the XBOX360 will only sell another 4 million consoles this year and the PS3 will only push another 5 million world wide.
ordered my US version from playasia.com barely 5 minutes ago... the Aussie version is censored because of our lack of R18 classification... good thing the PS3 has no region lock... my friend did the same opting for the PS3 version over the 360 because of this GTAIV censoship and region lock issue... i reminded him of the downloadable content but he's not interested in them, said there are just too many games, especially for a guy that owns both consoles, for him to get hang up on DLC.
Wow these idiots are funny. Their disagreeing about guesstimates lol. I'm gonna tell u what they know squat! All they are is idiots who get paid for for predicting the obvious are saying complete foolishness. I'm gonna tell u what they know NOTHING! I should get their jobs they get free money for doing nothing.
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