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Jez San: PS3 Will be Number One

Posted Aug 3, 2006 at 2:34PM EST by QJ Staff

Listed in: PS3 Tags: Jez San, Paul Jackson, playstation 3 updates, Sony

We've been getting more predictions regarding the ultimate next-gen console war winner, and many are saying that victory is in the bag for PS3.

According to Jez San from Heavenly Sword (also former founder of the defunct Argonaut Software), PS3 will surely emerge as the number one next-gen console. The Blu-ray is quite an innovation, and many will want to get their hands on it, despite the costly price tag.

Paul Jackson, a market analyst from Forrester Research shares the same opinion."Far more people will go for a PS3 than spend $1,000 on a Blu-ray player ..." However, Jackson adds that Sony's "got a real fight on their hands", as anti-PS3 stories on the web keep getting worse.

There's no denying that the three next-gen consoles each have something unique to boast of. As of now, it's hard to tell which one is gonna end up as number one, but surely it's gonna be an interesting ride for all of us.

Via Computer and Video Games

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well, in America, "jap" is very much a racist term. so, is "spic" short for "Hispanic" then? not over here. in the racist 30's 40's and 50's here, the term "jap" was never used in a positive context. even Superman had a comic book with the cover proudly proclaiming: "Superman says, Slap a Jap!"

anyway, to the article at hand, if 360 developers can say the PS3 is difficult to program for and isn't any better than the 360, then PS3 developers can say their console will be number one. also, Ninja Theory was originally developing Heavenly Sword for the 360, but Microsoft refused to publish the game (i expect there was a difference in opinion over the fact that the main character was not bald or shaved, and touting a gigantic machine gun with a chainsaw attached, but that's just me). Sony saw potential in the game and picked it up.

there's been so many negative stories about Sony and PS3 bandied about lately that it's easy to forget what Sony is doing *right*: They announced a price point and release date (something the competition *cough* Nintendo *cough* still hasn't done), they're attempting to create a more formidable online service, as, they have acknowledged in the past that X Box Live is a very, very good service for delivering online content to X Box consumers, and they need to up their game in that area as well. they've beefed up their First Party studios, which have been pumping out more high quality titles than not (God of War, Shadow of the Colossus, the Sly Cooper series, to name the few i can think of right now), they've included a 20 and 60 gig hard drive *standard* in both SKUs, so their PS3 market and developers won't be split on implementing uses for it. they've been liscensing game engines like mad, so their numerous First and Third Party developers can get games up and running faster, as they know the Cell is a beast to program for, and it's going to take a while for the devs to get used to the unique architecture (much like the PS2 era). due to a lukewarm to poor reception, they redesigned the PS3 controller to the standard Dual Shock shape we've grown familiar with (and love, for the most part), and made enhancements to the controller that could positively benefit gaming (the more trigger like L2 and R2 buttons, and the motion sensing).

the inclusion of Blu Ray isn't as costly as people are thinking (the Cell is the true culprit when it comes to the console's price; the Blu Ray drive probably adds about $200 bucks to production costs, the Cell, probably around $300 to $400, and everything else picking up the rest), and, much like the move to DVD, Blu Ray will slowly become the standard by which games are delivered (remember, people said DVD was unnecessary also, and games would never use up the 4 gigs of DVD space. we now know that DVD was absolutely essential to gaming).

but no, everyone is too busy hopping on the "Bash Sony because everybody else is" bandwagon that they don't see those positives. the media and gamers are guilty of this. they aren't thinking with their heads, or creatively, they're all thinking with their wallets. Sony has been in business for 60 years. they've stayed in business by being at the forefront of technology for those 60 years. they're trying to do that again, but like most people and industries that are ahead of their time, they aren't appreciated or understood (look at the Dreamcast).

# Blu-ray is the main factor in gaming. — Vietone 2006-08-03 17:08

Space is limited everyone knows this. PCs used up CDs way before any console game did. I remember having 2-disk installation games when the PSX was first released.

Now you have games using several CDs for installation. And everything is compressed and copied to the hard drive in its compressed form and decompressed as needed.

Consoles dont have the option of installing data on hard drives, but the PS3 might. Data for consoles to keep its quality needs to be uncompressed. Audio, video, models, everything needs to stay uncompressed to get the best quality. You people say that games will never break the DVD9 barrier, id say the first GTA game on the PS3 will go WAY beyond 8.4gb of space. Combine the graphics of heavenly sword and the massive area of GTA and you already have a map thats going to be well over 8.4gb of data. Add in the models, sound effects, scripts, missions, animations, videos, and your well beyond 10gb.

By the end of 2007, i predict that PS3 games will go way beyond the XBox360 in terms of graphics just because they have more storage space. Space is critical in developing graphics, were no longer in the era where designers will be limited in how big the game assets can be. Graphics cards have develop just as quickly as everything else, they no longer have to render everything that you might possibly see, they have the ability to render only what you will see.

You want proof that games even in 2006 will break the dvd9 barrier, take any modern game and decompress every file in the cabs or whatever the game stores the files in, you will get well over 9gb once your done, thats what you can expect console games if they ever want to look as good as PC games. The fact that many Xbox360 games are PC ports proves that consoles are trying to close the gap between the two.

Microsoft has totally failed in their attempt to bridge the gap. With graphics that dont even look half as good as the PC counterparts, its up to the PS3 to give console gamers the same quality thats put into PC games.

# lol — Guest 2006-08-03 17:42

i also played the PS3 at E3, and the graphics were definitely not "crappy"(did you even *see* Heavenly Sword in motion? i played it, and man, that game is gorgeous). and the games were fun. which is, ultimately what matters the most when playing videogames. after all, gaming is supposed to be "entertainment."

i played the 360 as well, and despite my dislike of Microsoft, i really enjoyed the games that i played for the console, and i do plan on picking up a 360 eventually. but after i get my PS3.

also, the reason why every console over $500 has failed, is because back then, gaming wasn't a billion dollar industry, with over 160 million gamers plus out there (the SNES and NES had only sold around 60 million units at the time). the average age of a gamer back in the mid 90's (when the 3DO and other consoles were launched) were 15 years old. nowadays, the average age of gamers is between 18 and 30. so basically, when i was 16 years old in 1995, i couldn't afford a $500/$600 console. now that i'm 27, i can, thanks to my job. see? simple concept.

what many fail to realize, is that the people buying games nowadays are not just children and teenagers, and parents looking for Christmas gifts for the little ones. they are adults, with disposable income. when people want something, they will pay for it. if they want it badly enough, they will pay for the high price if a high price is asked. considering what you're getting for the PS3, it's a fair price, but it's still more than what gamers (regardless of age) are used to paying. that particular change was inevitable. much like the inflation of movie ticket prices directly resulted from the high production costs of creating movies, the price of video games have increased due to the high production costs of developing video games and in particular, the hardware required to *run* those games.

the reason why it took so long is because video game technology has always been waaaay behind movie technology, and really, the gaming industry had been overcharging us for the games back then anyway (looking back, would any of us have really paid $50 for Balloon Fight?). creating gaming consoles for a market that is trained to expect vast improvements over the previous iteration is a very costly process. and to have that process take place every 5 years is crazy. basically, the companies that make our consoles have to be planning the successor as soon as the current one is released. do you think they get to sit back and enjoy the money they reap from a successful console? no. it goes right into the development of the *next* one.

that's why a company like Sony is trying to make their console "future proof," for ten years. it gives them, and developers, breathing room to acrue more capital and prepare for the next generation. basically, if the PS3 manages to last for 10 years, developers won't have to rush and drop millions on creating Prince of Persia 4 on the PS4, they can still capitalize off of the low development costs of the PS3 for a bit longer, making the transition to the PS4 a bit smoother.

# p.s. — Guest 2006-08-03 17:48

i agree 100% with you Vietone about disc space. hell, DreamFall on my PC alread takes up over 7 gigs, and that's compressed. i have about 25 gigs of games on my PC, but it's only roughly five games (Oblivion, F.E.A.R, DreamFall, Quake, Black and White 2), and i know uncompressed, those files would take up an even larger chunk of my Hard Drive.

come the end of 2007, they'll be seeing how necessary Blu Ray (or any mass capacity disc) could be over DVD9. once 360 owners have to start clearing out their HDDs because GTA 4 has an additional 15 gigs of game content that couldn't be fit on the DVD9, there will be a lot of people suddenly backpaddling and saying how they wish the 360 supported a larger capacity disc.

# ! — Guest 2006-08-03 17:49

fine i'll buy one in 3 years when the 360 (supposedly) runs out of steam and the ps3 begins to show it's worth (apparently).

# #8 — milkman 2006-08-03 17:55

I totally agree with you #8

In my mind, if GTA 4 had stayed exclusive they probably could have fit atleast half of america onto a 50GB Blu-Ray disc, all the while uping the graphics and everything that we love about GTA. Now Rockstar is forced to limit the game to 9GB because the game has to be the same on both consoles.

Also, I heard that an uncompressed file running on an HD Signal takes up A LOT of space. I heard that If you converted all the FMV's in metal gear solid into an uncompressed HD stream it would take up 9.0GB+ of space (feel free to shoot that down at any time because I am not entirely sure).

If this is true, it would mean that in order to get true uncompressed HD you would need a lot more space than just 9.0GB.

# to nic — Guest 2006-08-03 18:04

lol. that's what 80 million other people did during the PS1 and PS2 eras. both consoles only sold roughly 10 million units in their first year, and about the same during their second year. launch time is never for everybody, as cost and availabilty is never suitable to the system's demand.

i used to never buy consoles on launch or even anywhere within the first year of the console's life, as i couldn't afford them, but that all changed with the PS2 and PSP, when i realized that i actually *could* purchase the systems, and there were games that i wanted to play (though not many, for both). a lot of other people will wait until later to get a PS3 also. that's just business as usual when it comes to the Playstation brand.

# Figboy... — Guest 2006-08-03 18:55

"Ninja Theory was originally developing Heavenly Sword for the 360, but Microsoft refused to publish the game"

Wow, the huge number of myths that float around the internet is amazing at times. ;)

This is completely untrue. Ninja Theory had a 6 month developer dairy series in EDGE magazine in the UK which started at the end of 2004 and ended after E3 2005 (I read them all!!!). At that time, the game was running on PCs only and they were looking for a publisher for their game. They managed to get a deal with Argonaut, but then Argonaut hit financial problems and Ninja Theory had to start again with their search for a publisher, and they wanted to find one quickly (preferably in time for E3).

In the end, it appears to have come down to a choice between Sony and MS (although they didn't mention MS by name), and THEY chose Sony. Only then did the game move from PC demos to console developement (PS3), so it was never in developement for the 360.

# the haters out there — Guest 2006-08-03 19:13

is it true when the apple released there ipod = video, nano, mp3, and shiny toy. well how come people were buying ipod for expensive price 30 gb ipod 200 or 300 dollars that is a lots for something small. a hard drive for a computer cost 40 gb for $40 even 120gb for $120. the blu ray disc is going to give alot of content such video, gaming, chat, internet, music, pictures, backwards compatible ps1 and ps2, and a lot to offer. its really a powerful gaming computer. remeber the past pc were not graphically then 2d games. today a lot of people are going to buy more apple computer this few up coming days.

----------------but its worth it. -------------------------

----------------- or ----------------

----------------bite my shiny metal ass.------------------

# #13 — Guest 2006-08-03 19:22

"If this is true, it would mean that in order to get true uncompressed HD you would need a lot more space than just 9.0GB."

HD movies takes up more space, correct, but it is still compressed. Blu-ray doesn't mark the end of compression, because without compression, you will need significantly larger capacity than even Blu-ray could offer (an uncompressed HD movie requires about 1000GB, or 1 TG, of space!).

Also, GTA 4 will not be limited by DVD for the PS3 version. If you guys want to claim that Blu-ray will mean developers can use higher resolution textures in their games, then both games can still be identical with decent textures on the 360 version, and higher resolution textures being used on the PS3 version (requiring more space, and therefore taking longer to load!).

However, developers use of compression is not just about DVD/Blu-ray disc space. Compressed textures are quicker to load and require less memory, and with on-the-fly decompression of such textures on GPUs, it is the ideal solution for achieving better textures and better performance in games (and has been so for years). Therefore you WILL see compression in PS3 games too.

The idea that data should be uncompressed for the best quality is false. Often, it is compression which leads to better quality overall, due to reduction of file sizes (hence less bandwith and less memory required) whilst still maintaining the quality of the original. Digital movies will be impossible to store on optical discs uncompressed. Texture quality in games will go DOWN without compression because RAM is limited, therefore you will have to either reduce the number of textures or lower the resolution to fit into memory. And forget storing 1000s of music files on your mp3 player, you will only fit a fraction of that number without compression. Load times in games will increase significantly without compression because ALL the data to be copied from disc will be much larger. And so on.

Compression is GOOD. Compression is NEEDED. Compression CAN improve quality and performance. Compression is here to stay. :)

# ... — Guest 2006-08-03 21:01

Brilliant post #17, compressed textures are used greatly nowadays to improve performance. And with better techniques and newer engines in place for next gen, not only are textures better compressed, but the procedures used for accessing and applying the textures into the game world have become much more efficient.

I don't believe that DVD's will limit space for many games. Those that do will because of the amount of FMVs used in the games. Hopefully there will be a reduction of these games in the next-gen due to the abilities of the consoles to render in realtime (are we at Toy Story yet?? :P).

As an example of what is possible for developers to do with a limited space, play .kkrieger ( http://produkkt.abraxas-medien.de/kkrieger ). This is a first person game with modern graphics weighing in at a total of 96kb for the entire game (yes, that is 96kilobytes, it's not a typo).

The reason that .kkrieger is so small is that it uses procedural synthesis to create all the 3d lanscape, models and sound etc on the fly, using series of highly complex equations and geometry created on the fly.

I'm not saying that procedural synthesis is the be all and end all of game programming since it does have its limitations, most noticeably lengthy loading times.

DISCLAIMER: .kkrieger is still in beta, and made by a very small team of unpaid programmers. Expect bugs and limited hardware support.

# #18 — CHUCKINGROCKSATSPACESHIPS 2006-08-03 23:37

.kkrieger is and awesome example of compression ability. I've played it and was suprised at all it does for such a low file size.

Another thing is polygon count. With dvd the polygons that make up games might be lower than with Bluray since storage would not be a factor with enough memory.

# A BR-BURNER!! costs only ~800$, so why should a player cost more that that? — Guest 2006-08-04 02:18

nocomment

# well — Guest 2006-08-04 02:19

Al Sleat, says it wont be number one.. and you know what SUCKAFATONE :)

# A BR-BURNER!! costs only ~800$, so why should a player cost more that that? — Guest 2006-08-04 02:19

nocomment

# I am impressed — Guest 2006-08-04 04:48

with the very conservative opinions of x360 fans. They are negating the near future need of more space because their console cant no handle more than just 9Gig. If what m$ fans say it is true why they are using DVD9 instead cdrom with improved better quality compression techniques?. Eventually BD space will be necessary for game development, maybe sooner than many expect.

# Extra Gaming Content — iNCREDiPiNOY 2006-08-04 05:23

Some of the game have Link to access to Internet because the 60GB Version have built-in WLAN & Internet Browser while 20GB Version have existing Ethernet & Internet Browser. There are lot of extra gaming contents including Achievement, Behind the Scene, Music Video, Game Trailer, Movie Trailer, Mini-Game, Send Screenshot or Replay to your friends, Invite your friends to play or game sharing, Video, Picture and Text Message via HD-Camera Eyetoy, and much more... Sony will definietly will throw some extra stuff in the gaming contents if the game is 20GB or less storage. What if Sony throw additional full-length of Movie like Spider-Man 2? That'll be awesome for both Game+Movie Blu-Ray to put together to compete HD-DVD to win the war, since HD-DVD holds 15GB. I would love to see the new Blu-Ray Content once I get my PS3 at launch! So I would say Blu-Ray will win this war because of extra gaming content and other features!

# #24 — Guest 2006-08-04 08:05

HD-DVD holds 15GB per layer. Current HD-DVD movies have been released on dual-layer discs (30BG), whereas Blu-ray movies have been released on single layered discs (25GB).

# Ps3 can go suck a a big dollar — Guest 2006-08-04 08:19

PS3 is Number SUCk

# #23 — Guest 2006-08-04 08:29

>>>"They are negating the near future need of more space because their console cant no handle more than just 9Gig."

The 360 can handle more than 9 GB, but it will have to be on multiple discs. Blu-ray makes it convenient for developers since they don't have to think so much about disc space. 360 developers will have to monitor space more closely, and if they're running out of space on one disc, they have to consider compressing the data further, leaving out data, or using multiple discs. PS3 developers do not have this issue to worry about.

So those gamers saying Blu-ray is not needed for next-gen games are no different to those gamers saying DVD is not enough for next-gen games! On one side we have gamers who downplay the benefits of Blu-ray, and on the other we have gamers who exaggerate the benefits. The truth is somewhere in between.

>>>"If what m$ fans say it is true why they are using DVD9 instead cdrom with improved better quality compression techniques?."

Eh? If you saying what I think you're saying then it's a silly arguement (sorry, but it is). Why not go further and ask why they didn't use floppy disks with even better compression if you want to use that kind of logic. ;)

MS are using techniques to squeeze more out of DVD, they're not claiming to have discovered the holy grail of compression techniques.

>>>"Eventually BD space will be necessary for game development, maybe sooner than many expect."

For games with lots of HD video content, Blu-ray will be needed from the start. But for next-gen games, the space offered by one or two DVDs will be fine, especially with features such as downloadable episodic content a reality for next-gen games.

That said, Blu-ray is GREAT, slightly slower in the PS3 compared to the DVD drive in the 360, but still great because of it's capacity. But it's not going to get rid of compression like some believe, so I agree with post #17 (great post Annie B).

# ^^^ Correction ^^^ — Guest 2006-08-04 08:35

I said...

"But for next-gen games, the space offered by one or two DVDs will be fine..."

I meant to say...

"But for _most_ next-gen games, the space offered by one or two DVDs will be fine"

# #26 — Guest 2006-08-04 08:40

"PS3 is Number SUCk"

Why do guys like you even bother to post here when you have nothing constructive to say? Are you really THAT desperate for attention? :(

Anyway, getting back to the topic .............

# #8 — Guest 2006-08-04 10:28

"By the end of 2007, i predict that PS3 games will go way beyond the XBox360 in terms of graphics just because they have more storage space....

Microsoft has totally failed in their attempt to bridge the gap. With graphics that dont even look half as good as the PC counterparts, its up to the PS3 to give console gamers the same quality thats put into PC games."

The fanboy is strong in this one.

# #17 + #18 + #27 — Guest 2006-08-04 10:32

Thanks for proving something intelligent to read here. :)

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