Analyst Pachter: Format wars will decide next-gen consoles' success |
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A lot of conjecture has surrounded who will win the next console wars. Now we have Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter predicting that it will be decided by the movie studios and the ongoing format war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray.While I don't necessarily agree with his predictions, I do see how both factors could influence each console's popularity on the market. Based on the assumption that the Blu-ray will actually win the console war, Pachter has declared that Sony's PlayStation 3 will be the dominant console next cycle.
While this is the case, he gave the other consoles (Wii for Nintendo and Xbox 360 for Microsoft) props, saying that each will actually earn money for their respective company. He also foresees Sony holding 36% of the market, with Nintendo at second (34%) and Microsoft coming in last (30%).
Another aspect of the equation he tackled was third-party games. He said that "In the upcoming cycle, we expect the playing field between Sony and Microsoft to be more level, and think that Nintendo will have the largest library of exclusives."
This is surprising considering the fact that the PlayStation 2 actually banked on third-party game developers (like other gamers, Final Fantasy was the reason I got my PS2) supporting their system. Nintendo is more known for in-house developed games, so perhaps their releases such as Mario and Super Smash Bros., combined with exclusives from third-party developers, might really skew the exclusive games market in their favor.
Pachter has been giving a lot of suppositions the past few months. We'll just have to wait and see if his predictions for the coming market holds true.
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Comments [refresh]
The ps3 is pushing blu-ray sales and it going to cause it to win the format war.
pardon my saying so but this is very far from being termed as impartial reporting... a lot of personal opinions by the writer on this one.
Adding "We'll just have to wait and see if his predictions for the coming market holds true." doesn't hold water after reading thru the rest of it.
Yes everyone is saying PS3, PS3, PS3! And movies. The PS3 really needs to improve the market share. Its got about 15% ATM!
Recent analysts seem to be agreeing about one thing: there won't be one obvious overall winner. These console wars are going to be close; much moreso than in the past. I agree, and I'm very happy about that prospect, because maybe if all the systems sell almost equally, people will stop bashing each other for supporting system A over system B. I know, it's a pipe dream, but I can hope, right?
One has to ask the question: why didn't Microsoft put HD-DVD in the Elite? --I think it's because they don't want to invest in it. Maybe Pachter is right and the HD format war will be the deciding factor. Or maybe Microsoft just wanted to make some actual profit on the Elites that they sell, and get 360 in position to drop the price down to $200. --Which, if that was the case, would really cross out the concept that the format war will be the deciding factor. Actually, I don't think history proves that theory out. CD was in 3DO and PS1 AFTER having been established. DVD was in PS2 and xBox 1 AFTER having been established. PS3 and BluRay is slightly 'cart before the horse'. However, that didn't stop Sega Saturns, Dreamcasts, Nintendo 64s and Gamecubes from selling. I think the game systems lead the formats, or even exist outside of the media delivery system. I think Sony knows this, researched it, and tried to take advantage of it this time by putting their pet format into PS3. If anything, PS3 may even (in time) serve to insulate Blu-Ray. In other words, even if more standalone HD-DVDs somehow existed 2yrs from now, if PS3 was the top-selling game console (and it probably will be after price drops and hot exclusive titles, by then), who wouldn't still pickup a movie or two on Blu-Ray? Even if many people owned HD-DVD (which is NOT the current situation). It's roughly equivalent to movies on UMD. If you've got a PSP and are on a flight, why NOT pickup a movie on UMD for $10-15? Sure, DVDs are everywhere, but why carry both a PSP and a portable DVD when you can just buy a UMD for a quick fix. --Same for PS3 and Blu-Ray, regardless of which way the format war falls.
- Guerrilla Games was just a 3rd party company when they released Killzone 1 in Nov. 2004. That’s why Guerrilla made KZ1 all by itself (Guerrilla didn’t access to all those super-amazing Sony’s 1st party PS2 library and data).
- KZ1’s release date was originally early 2005. Since Bungie (a subsidiary of MS) decided to release Halo 2 in Nov. 2004, Guerrilla had to release KZ1 in Nov. too (because KZ1 was originally made to counter Halo 2’s release). That’s why KZ1 was a rushed (by about 5 months), unfinished, unoptimized, and unpolished game.
- Halo 2’s release date: Nov. 9. 2004; got 9.4 average review score from 185 different publications
- KZ1’s release date: Nov. 2. 2004; got 7.9 average review score from 112 different publications; therefore, KZ1 was not a bad game; it was just a decent game but miserably failed to be as good as Halo 2. Actually, for an unfinished game, KZ1 was quite good (7.9/10).
- Killzone 2 and Halo 3 both are expected to be out in Sep. 2007; again, KZ2’s biggest purpose is to counter Halo 3’s launch.
- Guerrilla Games (a subsidiary of Sony) has 130 employees (programmers and graphic designers only). Sony has spent $40 million so far (until Mar. of this year) on KZ2. Sony confirmed that the total budget for KZ2 will surpass $50 million (this is totally crazy, spending 5 to 10 times more budget to make only one game?).
- Epic has only 90 developers. Gears of War needed only $9 million to make (just for your reference, usually one good game only needs less than $5 million to make).
- Phil Harrison (the CEO of worldwide studio) said that KZ2’s final (retail) version will surpass both people’s expectations and the famous and infamous CG trailer. A person in his position can’t lie, so let’s just believe what he says, huh?
- In 2004, Guerrilla hired about 50 programmers and designers only from AAA-level companies around the world; these new employees are the brains behind KZ2 now.
- All Sony’s internal developers and Sony’s very close AAA-3rd party companies share all kinds of technologies which are used for making PS3 games (OpenGL 2 based). These world class developers are those companies which make games like: MotorStorm, MotorStorm 2 (confirmed), Metal Gear Solid 4, Warhawk, Ratchet & Clank, Virtua Fighter 5, Resistance 2 (tentatively confirmed), Ninja Gaiden Sigma, Jak and Daxter, White Knight Story, Monster Kingdom (Folks Soul), Tekken 6, Afrika, PS3 Home, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy versus XIII, Lair, Heavy Rain, Uncharted-Drake's Fortune, Killzone 2, God of War 3 (confirmed), Getaway, Eight Days, and Dead or Alive 5.
- Dead or Alive 5 is PS3 exclusive; confirmed by CVG.com on Apr. 30 (go and read the article unless you are blind; just for your reference, DoA 5 and Ninja Gaiden Sigma are made by the same Japanese company).
- Based on the above facts, KZ2 can’t be anything but the best shooter ever.
* Killzone 2’s actual gameplay footage (pre-alpha build) was shown to journalists at this year’s GDC expo behind closed doors. These journalists who watched the actual footage said...
- KZ2 is graphically and technologically extremely advanced.
- It was like watching Next-gen Black and Half Life 3 combined together. Everything which was hit by bullets and missiles were realistically destroyed and penetrated.
- KZ2 has extremely impressive lighting and shadow effects including the mind-blowing sky and river water.
- The environments (both indoor and outdoor) are extremely detailed.
- The characters were meticulously detailed.
- The sound effects were blowing away the audience.
- The short KZ2 footage was started in an outdoor environment. There were vehicular units like futuristic choppers and tanks. The soldiers moved into some cathedral-like building soon after. Many Helghast units encountered with our soldiers in a room. Some even said that it was like watching Hollywood blockbuster action movies.
that is the biggest half a$$ed piece of fanboy crap i ever almost entirely read. im sure its going to be a good game but i highly doubt half of what u posted is fact. when it comes out and if it does look better than halo three, which im sure it will because eveything ive seen on halo 3 doesn't look that impressive (graphically speaking) doesn't mean the game play, story, or online play (although its FREE) will be any better. and how could someone compare a ps3 game to a pc game (half life) its already been said that crysis isnt possible on any console so how %u201Cmind-blowing%u201D could it be if games on pc%u2019s are already and have been surpassing consoles.
I will not comment on the large comment above but to pssshhh.
''its already been said that crysis isnt possible on any console so how %u201Cmind-blowing%u201D could it be if games on pc%u2019s are already and have been surpassing consoles''
What? Who? When? said something like that please specify!. Do you really believe that crysis is not possible on PS3 even in lower resolutions heck the 360 can run it in low res ? Do you actually believe that a game developer would make a game so power hungry that would run ONLY on a $2000 PC??? If yes how many copies will sell...?
Because my friend in order to build a pc with the overall power output of a PS3 you actually need $2000 if not more (custom build based on retail prices of each required component)...
So stop posting 'facts' that are nothing BUT facts.
Oh by the way they didnt say it wasnt possible to be ported to the consoles because they are underpowered..they said that at the moment a port is not possible because they are up to their necks trying to complete what it to be the most staning thing we have seen on a pc screen yet!!! (ok that was me)
"Phil Harrison (the CEO of worldwide studio) said that KZ2’s final (retail) version will surpass both people’s expectations and the famous and infamous CG trailer. A person in his position can’t lie, so let’s just believe what he says, huh?"
lol, wait are you serious?!? I mean I have no problem with Sony or the PS3, but Sony's PR strategies are laughable! They lie all the time! I remember Phil Harrison was saying Motorstorm looked as good as the CG trailer! lmfao it's called GCI [sarcastic tone]as in like the kind that super powerful render farms take days to render 30 seconds![sarcas tic tone]