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Analyst: Don't count Sony out just yet

Posted Jun 7, 2008 at 10:38PM EST by Karl B.

Listed in: PS3, PSP Tags: Colin Sebastian, Lazard Capital, Lazard Capital Markets, LittleBigPlanet, North America, Sony

Don't count Sony out just yet. Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian recently told investors that despite the modest sales trends for the PS3 in North America, the platform's strong upcoming software lineup may turn things around.

Sebastian gave out Metal Gear Solid 4, LittleBigPlanet, and Resistance 2 as examples. He also noted that Sony's home video game console may benefit from "the late 2008 rollout of more robust online services" along with Blu-ray's victory, a prolonged console cycle, and the potential migration of PS2 owners.

A price cut for this year doesn't seem likely according to Sebastian, however, as he expects Sony to focus more on increasing profitability for their PlayStation segment. Sebastian has expressed similar sentiments in the past, as opposed to fellow analyst Michael Pachter, who has said that a PS3 price drop is imminent.

Sebastian also pointed to a possible "refresh" of Sony's PlayStation Portable handheld gaming console. The analyst did not indicate if he was talking about a new SKU or if he meant additional features introduced for the handheld.

Via GamesIndustry.biz

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I agree with the first posts about "who counted them out, to begin with?" ...But I also think that (at least) a holiday-season price cut is in the works. I believe that Sony dropped the 80gb model for the past several months in order to concentrate on mass-production of 1 console type (thereby bringing those parts down in cost). Who knows? --They may also have had some commitment of 'number of units' during a certain period of time, in order to achieve a huge quantity discount with that vendor.

Plus, add things like the WalMart deal this week (week of June

with $100 Gift Card back on the purchase of a PS3 ...I would presume that's Sony-sponsored on the back-end. If we start seeing more deals like that (which are essentially a form of rebate) in the near future, a price cut might be hitting way sooner than expected.

I'd say that once PS3 hits $300, it'll be the beginning of the end for 360 (unless they drop to $200), and might start encroaching on the Wii sales, too. If somehow Sony could swing a $250 PS3 before year-end (and minimize profit-loss to the status quo), who knows how well they can do this year?

# Refresh? — 3vi1 2008-06-08 03:54

I wonder if his "refresh" comments were just speculation or if he actually has some inside information.

It seems too soon to be expecting a refresh of the slim - I would think Sony would hold out another year or two.

Here's what I would like to see:

Ultra-thin - No UMD slot

External UMD snap-on sold separately

At least 256MB RAM, preferably expandable via snap-on.

OtherOS functionality.

1st party snap-on thumbboard for texting and OtherOS.

Bring back infrared port!

They could make a ton of money just selling downloadable content.

# Just a painful reminder for fanboys. — NarooN 2008-06-08 03:57

Console War of 5th Gen Winner: Sony

Console War of 6th Gen Winner: Sony

...

I've recently converted to Nonfanboyism, but if anyone counted out Sony already then they are on heavy drugs. A price drop does indeed seem unlikely since there's nothing hinting towards it, but Sony has been to known to come out of nowhere and announce things that sweeps people off their feet.

# 5th, 6th Generation.. — 3vi1 2008-06-08 04:19

Console War of the 7th Gen Winner: Nintendo.

But yeah - totally agree with what you said. If Sony had released the PS3 on time, we'd be hearing these same ridiculous comments made about Microsoft.

# 5th + 6th Gen — sage3k 2008-06-08 04:30

the Current Gen got PWN'D by Nintendo (we kinda all know that). BUT I think is is Nintendo's last console.. I see them going the way of Sega and becoming a 3rd party developer. (the most profitable option)

Considering NarooN's Comment: The Price Drop seems like the option for this holiday season. I'm still on the fence when it comes to shelling out the 6 hundo.. But considering that MGS is right around the corner... I'll be on line for that bundle in a few days.

# sweet — Binary 2008-06-08 05:07

Price drop will help me get a PS3

I thinking about skiping wii. unless homebrew is scoring good.

# Sage you're an idiot then — Charlybob 2008-06-08 05:16

I'm sorry, but Nintendo going the way of Sega?

That's got to be one of the stupidest comments I've ever seen. There is no chance of Nintendo going that way for a long, long time.

We saw with the gamecube, they can support themselves perfectly well, with virtually no 3rd paarty support, and still make a huge profit. The only way Nintendo could go the way of Sega, is if Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and all their other franchises suddenly became a hell of a lot less popular.

They'd probably need Sega to take a big plumet too, because now Sonic and Mario have come together to become rivals, in mulitple games, there's going to be a strong link between those two now.

# Why I Dont Want a Wii — NarooN 2008-06-08 05:45

I bought a DS right when they came out. It was AWESOME. For the first month. After that, I was completely bored of the whole Touch Screen concept. It was just the same thing over & over again, and the online system was horrible.

The Wii to me, is just like the DS. I know I would get bored of the motion sensing and all of that, and the games aren't for me (I'm hardcore, not casual)

The Wii pretty much already beat PS3 & 360 in sales, but I'm positive it's only because of it's super cheap price. Somehow the PS3 has now surpassed the 360 in Europe in total sales. The 360 came out an entire year before the PS3 and Wii, yet the Wii surpasses both because of an easier entry price.

With the price drops for the PS3 & 360, these systems are catching up. The gap isn't too big. I just feel bad for all the people who have a Wii but got tired of them due to them being hardcore, because I know a few guys like that. Some of them got either a 360 or PS3 as well and admit they play the hardcore consoles more than the Wii nowadays.

# I MUST ask — Xis 2008-06-08 09:54

why infrared return?

# Syphon Filter Combat Ops Hacked Copy — spore89 2008-06-08 13:35

I am trying to get people to play Syphon Filter combat ops here is the link enjoy http://www.sendspace.com/file/e6x5nq

# I agree with the Nintendo comment. — kupomogli 2008-06-08 18:49

Nintendo won't be out of the console competition anytime soon, but the systems are pretty crappy.

I bought a DS as soon as it came out. I honestly loved the system, but many of the games were just stupid ways of utilizing the touch screen. There are less than 20 truly great games for the system.

A few months after Pokemon Diamond and Pearl came out, I picked up the PSP. Even without the homebrew, it's become one of my favorite systems. The fact that the companies don't try to push some sortof retarded gimmick into their games makes most games a whole hell of alot better. I import as well as play our own region of games, so a few games we can't find over here, I've imported. But for games that are only able to be acquired in the US, it' got a ton that are worth getting. Brave Story, Wild ARMs XF, Tales of the World, Castlevania Dracula X Chronicles, Mega Man Powered Up, Mega Man Maverick Hunter X, Silent Hill Origins, Tekken Dark Resurrection, etc, etc, etc. There are many more, but those are my favorites. My favorite import has to be Gundam Battle Chronicle.

Because of a homebrew, however. The PSP is honestly my all time favorite system. All the games I own before the PSX(aside from N64,) I can plaly wherever I want. What's not to love. Plus the ability the PSP already has had to listen to MP3s and such.

-andrew- -kupomogli-

# - — APerson 2008-06-08 20:36

sage3k- holy crap you think Nintendo are going to LEAVE the console market?! Sweet *****ing hell that's the most retarded thing I've ever read online, and I've been on 4chan!

Firstly it's NOT the most profitable option. The Wii has made a flat out profit ever since it was on market. It's made Nintendo one of the richest companies in Japan just in the last couple of years.

Doing a Sega? Jeeeez. If anyone is going to "do a sega" it'll be a company who isn't making a profit on their console, that isn't selling that well. Guess who fits that bill? The PS3, so Sony.

# - — APerson 2008-06-08 20:40

Well to break your preconceptions - I'm a hardcore gamer. So hardcore I laugh at the PS3 and 360's low resolution, terrible control schemes and somehow inflated game prices, so I play my PC and Wii. It makes me laugh at how people say it isn't a hardcore system and fail to 100% near impossible games like Galaxy, Prime, Mario Kart.

Oh and to break another one of your "points"... In the UK the Wii costs MORE than the Xbox 360. Guess what? It doesn't help. The Wii is still king of the charts by a massive margin. Sorry. Even still you just get Wii Sports with the Wii's base price, you get 2 free games with an Xbox (including GTA IV).

# - — APerson 2008-06-08 20:46

"Who Had Ruled Out SONY .?" Well pretty much all the analysts did and if you didn't read the internet a LOT of people lost interest in the PS3. For gods sake globally the system is last, and by a huge margin. It's not the next SNES, PS1 or PS2. It's dead last and that is why people are ruling it out. Of course this on a site called "pspupdates" you're all going to have a different, though globally a minority, view on the subject.

Oh and I have all these systems. I loved my DS and Lite for years but I got tired of some games, I flirted with a PSP and it was good. Took over for a while but I've played catch up with some DS games I missed and yea. It's obvious why the DS is globally first. It's perfect for portable gaming. It does everything right. Where I can think of 20-30 fantastic DS titles I can only think of 5 good PSP ones. And I'm talking good-good, metacritic good, universally acknowledged good. Not "zomg it's got teh violences and guns"-Sony fanboy kind of good.

The only systems for me are the PC, Wii, PSP and DS.

# - — APerson 2008-06-08 20:48

NES, SNES, PS1, PS2, Wii...

GB, GBC, GBA, DS...

Congrats on scoring 2 Sony! Looks like Nintendo's back though...

But poor Microsoft. At least they have Vista and XP for gaming too.

# infra red is old — na2rul 2008-06-09 01:58

dont be surprise if our tv remotes go bluetooth either.

# Nintendo's Back? — scarface_tha_second 2008-06-09 03:53

Did you actually just use four handheld consoles to try and say Sony and Nintendo are tied? No other company had even joined the handheld race till this generation. Take all of those bull***** handhelds outa the list and what do you have? a 2 - 2 tie between Sony and Nintendo.

The first two Playstations sold something like 220 million units while NES and SNES did just over 120.

Also: past performance may be a huge factor, but it is not everything. After the Nintendo dominated with NES and SNES, 64 was destroyed by PS1 - something completely new.

# I laugh my ass off at you then! — scarface_tha_second 2008-06-09 03:58

If you laugh at the 360 and PS3's resolution, control and prices, I laugh to the death at you. The Wii has a total of three games worth owning. It has the saddest specs I have ever seen in a video game console. This is not *****ing 2000, it is 2008. I don't want Mario to look the same damn way he did on my 64! I thought the control thing would be kindof cool, but as a day 1 buyer of both the Wii and the PS3, I will say one thing: The Wii *****ing sucks.

# PS3 won't go down easy — PS3R00M631 2008-06-09 04:02

I always knew the PS3 would come back. LOOK THE 360 WAS OUT A YEAR OR 2 LONGER THAN THE PS3!! Of course their gonna have more games out because they have been out longer. By the end of this year PS3 will be in a good spot with all their exclusives coming out. And Killzone(rumore d date) coming in FEB. 2009 to start the year off. Sony doesnt have to worry now. They are gonna be in a good spot. SO 360 FANS, DONT COUNT SONY OUT YET... WE STILL HERE

# also funny... — trixter 2008-06-09 04:54

Another topic "Analysts: 360 in trouble, Wii is a fad, PlayStation has loyal gamers" - in same QJ summary? Okay...?

Sony will need more exclusives though - it's about time they started spending now to ensure that the titles sell their system...imo it's the only way to get the one up.

# - — APerson 2008-06-09 20:43

Um, gaming wasn't big back then? Year on year more consoles are sold, *except* for this gen where the PS3 and 360 are falling behind trends, whereas the Wii is massively leading the race. It's still the best selling console ever and it's already won this gen.

And handhelds? LOL so you didn't know about the GameGear, about the NeoGeo Pocket? Nintendo have had competition in the handheld sector, hell the PSP came out and all the sony fans rejoiced and it fell flat on its face sales wise!

So yea. Nintendo is back. They're first in every market they're in. Is that not what you would consider "being back?"...

# - — APerson 2008-06-09 20:47

Sounds like sour grapes?

I used to laugh at PS1 and PS2 specs... They were the weakest of their gen. It was also clever to mock the Wii whereas you didn't even try to mock the PC... it really must be better!

And the polygonal difference between Mario 64 and Galaxy is immense, IIRC the number of polygons on the first Bom-Bom field level of Mario 64 is the same as just Mario in Galaxy. So I'm sorry to destroy your argument, whatever childish one it was.

# - — APerson 2008-06-09 20:49

Until they get a proper foothold in the market then they are not out of the woods yet. They are 3rd in a market of 3. They have a long way to go.

And using capitals is not cruise control for cool.

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