Pachter on Nintendo's 2008 fiscal forecast: too conservative |
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After Nintendo's recently released statement showing the next nine months of the company's fiscal calendar for 2008, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter says that Nintendo's forecasts remained rather conservative and that they could still do better.In Nintendo's announcement, it expects to raise its fiscal 2008 sales forecast by up to 5.2 percent of ¥1.63 trillion, with a net income of ¥275 billion by the end of the first nine months. According to Pachter, Nintendo's assets should hit around ¥1.66 trillion instead.
In terms of hardware sales, Pachter continued by saying that estimates for both the Wii and DS were still low considering its robust sales during the previous year. Nintendo estimated Wii sales to be around 18.5 million, while DS sales averaging 29.5 million units.
Pachter explained the conservative numbers Nintendo released by saying:
As we expect Wii production levels to be slightly higher than 20 million for the fiscal year, we think that there may be 1 million units upside to the companyÂ’s guidance... [We] think [NintendoÂ’s] DS software estimates remain too low.
DS software sales are plentiful, with an attach rate over 2.5 units per hardware unit during the fiscal year. This tie ratio suggests to us that the company could sell close to 250 million units of DS software next fiscal year.
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Comments [refresh]
Even if they could and wanted to make that many, how would they sell with no quality third party games and only 2-3 decent first party games per year? Does everyone just buy it for Wii sports?
2008 is the year for the PS3 comeback, the 360 will remain strong, and the Wii will die a slow, horrible death. Nintendo can't fake production problems forever since that and a controller are the only things making them sell.
will do well this year but not a person by the name of mister common sense