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Analysts: Xbox 360 to fall in "distant third," PS3 to win console war by 2009

Posted Sep 18, 2007 at 3:30PM EST by QJ Staff

Listed in: PS3, Wii, PSP, Xbox 360, MMORPG, Nintendo DS, PC Gaming Tags: David Cole, DFC Intelligence, Microsoft, Sony

DFC Intelligence, expert in video game and entertainment market research, recently released forecasts for the gaming industry. According to the research firm, Microsoft's Xbox 360 could lose the so-called "console war" and fall in a distant third place when year 2009 kicks in.

Various sources make it quite clear that the Nintendo Wii is zooming past its competition in terms of sales but Microsoft's horse trails close behind. DFC researchers, however, found weakness in 360's recent sales. If the current pace goes on for a couple of years, the Wii will dominate until 2008 ends. Sony's year will be 2009, when PlayStation 3 sales move into overdrive as DFC foresees.

DFC analyst David Cole pointed out how likely Sony will be leading in the software race even if Nintendo's console continues to sell. In order to share Xbox 360's presence to the scene, Microsoft "will need to build a strong base outside North America," said Cole.

By 2009, DFC expects US$ 47 billion in revenue for the gaming industry. Sales of the three big consoles are to reach numbers between 180 million to 210 million when 2012 comes - if DFC's projections are correct, that is. During the same year, PC gaming could be racking up $US 13 billion in revenue thanks to the ever-growing online games market and convenient digital distribution.

DFC's research is strongly positive toward handhelds. Cole stated that the Nintendo DS could be on top as the best-selling game system ever five years from now. Nothing is set in stone, but we can be sure of one thing: it'll be fun to watch how everything unfolds, and gamers win in the end.

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Well, that might become true. Who knows what will happen in 2009. The PS3 might indeed have high sales by then (will be a lot cheaper and have a lot of games)

But that will be helped by Nintendo new custommers that gets into games. Still Nintendo is makign lots of money and are surely a winner in this war, no matter what the outcomes are. We are sure to see another system from them.

# ... — Twenty-Se7en 2007-09-18 16:46

If you talk to people, and I don't mean online junkies like you get mostly here, I mean people one on one then you'd know that nearly everyone thinking about buying a xbox360 is scared the damn thing will break. They don't care that there is a 3 year warranty - it doesn't matter to them for some reason. Maybe it's the fact that you have to ship it away. Maybe it's the fact that most people feel that you'll never be able to hold on to one for very long and at the price you're paying there shouldn't be a "failure rate" attached to it's lineup of features.

Ps3 - still way to high in price. That is, high in price for a gaming machine. With everything it does, blu-ray and whatnot, the price seems justified to many - but not that many or it would be selling a hell of a lot faster.

Wii - I have had my time with Wii. And it collects dust 90% of the time. What the hell? Give me something impressive. And, I am sorry, but I don't show my Wii off to friends because it looks like ass compared to the high def images of the 360, PS3, and PC. It's more of a toy then a gamer's console. But, software titles could change that.

To Microsoft:

Redesign your Xbox360. Yes, it's early in the game. No, you didn't have to do it with the first xbox. You did lose that console war though, ps2 killed xbox. Just saying that the problem is fixed won't mean much if it looks like the same product. People don't see the elite as a redesign. If you want to win this you need the customer's trust in your product. But, then again, Windows isn't trustworthy- but your competition in that game was so slack it was easy to win. Redesign the xbox360, get rid of the dying systems. Or have you already given up the battle?

To Sony:

You're hardware is expensive. What can I say? Production costs will lower as time goes on - when they do, people will be craving that drop. Until then, keep working on the games!

To Nintendo:

You're sitting high on the hog guys. Sales are through the roof. I may think that the hardware is inferrior to its competition - but casual gamers don't. Now if you had some decent titles - exclusives - something different to go with this different console then you would have it made.

# ... — DVSDevise 2007-09-18 17:16

Yes people are afraid of buying a 360. But they must be sh it scared of buying a PS3 because the 360 outsold the PS3 2 to 1 last month.

# ... — Quixand 2007-09-18 17:35

and the PS3 outsold the 360 at ten to one last month in Japan...

that was the point of this article, if Microsoft don't want to fall to third place in two years time:

Microsoft "will need to build a strong base outside North America," said Cole.

and anyone with a sound mind knows that this, what's happening right now, is not the PS3's peak... it's far from it... that's why these people (in their own judgment) has the PS3 over the 360 by 2009.

# Dude — Apu 2007-09-18 17:38

One Word ''Halo"

# oh come on!!... — Someone_PR 2007-09-18 17:52

why is the only word that any 360 fans are saying? and after that what?... anyway... like anyone knows... after the ps3 have a 400 machine or less.. with all the home and with many favorite and new awsome comes out.. it will be by sure that anyone will want it... but the PS3 really need something in their machine that any console have yet or think to do it...

# Halo?? So??? — Quixand 2007-09-18 17:52

this generation doesn't end this September.

and it's just amazing how people already has a preconceived notion of how Halo is the messiah of gaming...

honestly i'm curious why i haven't read one review of Halo 3 this close to launch... other games, recent examples are Lair, Bioshock, and Heavenly Sword, has had reviews released a week or two prior to launch to educate the gaming public about the pros and cons of the game...

but with Halo not a thing... honestly if it is a really good game I'd have reviews out right now!

# meh. — rawrskies 2007-09-18 18:36

Reviews or not, I'd say it's still gonna be very much critically acclaimed. But you're also right. The 'war' doesn't end this month.

People like to bag out analysts and put forward their own take on the situation, but in the end, their opinions are moot point. Analysts have the 1st hand information, they've got the hearsay. Sure, analysts get it wrong (a lot even). But they probably get it down correctly enough, that it's their freakin' job.

At any rate, their points are pretty interesting, but that doesn't mean MS is gonna sit down and do jack all on the lead up to 2009. So it's still very much up for grabs.

# This is starting to sound like... — Just_a_guy 2007-09-18 18:59

This is starting to sound like what analysts were saying about the PSP and the DS!

Just give the Devs more time, and in a little while, the mini-game/"waggle the wiimote to replace a button press" phase will be over. Then once the Wii gets more realistic motion controls and quite posibly "record your OWN controls" for certain points in a game, then the Wii will become the console of choice for devs to express their creative ideas. It already happened with the DS!

# I very highly doubt the PS3 will ever surpass the Wii — Master Chef 2007-09-18 19:05

Especially considering the Wii's price will eventually drop even lower than the already ridiculously low $250, the other consoles just aren't going to beat its sales numbers.

But the 360 moving into third place is very likely if nothing happens after Halo 3. As we've already seen, people react very kindly to PS3 price drops (ie 2800% sales increase on Amazon the day afterwards). Once the big ones are out, like GTA4 (yes I know it's multi-platform, but GTA is bigger on PlayStation, obviously), MGS4, FF13, etc and another price drop happens, the PS3 could easily exceed the 360's sales numbers. And if the flow of amazing 360 titles ends with this holiday (best holiday lineup ever BTW, IMO) then it could also beat the 360's software attach rate.

Considering both of those things are bound to happen, the only way MS can combat a third-place finish is by keeping the flow of great titles coming, well after the 07 holiday season, and by matching the PS3 price drop with a large price drop of their own. And, as Cole said, by building a much larger fanbase outside North America.

# rawrskies — Quixand 2007-09-18 19:26

i have no argument about how big Halo will be regardless if it's a good or a bad game...

the only thing that gets to me is the shortsighted XBots who acts like Halo is the end all and be all of the gaming world... as i said a preconceived notion of how Halo is the messiah of gaming.

Halo is a big game but it is not ALL THAT... and if is it actually ALL THAT for Microsoft (like what the moron said above: one word "HALO") then they are in deep sh*it!!!!! cause you've got to find a way to battle GT5, MGS4, FFXIII, KZ2, LBP etc... the three i mentioned GT5, MGS4, FFXIII would deliver bigger blows to MS than Halo 3 will ever do to Sony.

# maybe — Kingofdaberbz 2007-09-18 20:06

1st a common fact halo will be the biggest game in entertainment history MGS4,KZ2 or even a final fantasy game can't stop this sony needs a bigger fanbase lowering the price is a start but they gotta do more to even think bout outselling the 360 the most important thing GAMES that's all ppl care about when buying gaming consoles kets be honest here over %85 of ps3 owners don't even what blu-ray is or won a HDTV so when they see that fat price tag n a lack of games they lose interest n the 360 will ALWAYS be cheaper so I don't know who will but I do know the Wii is gonna win this generation n i don't care what analysts say about that

# not everyone likes Halo and War Sims — koji_m 2007-09-18 21:13

that's something people seem to forget about, not everyone loves Halo, or just shooter games and war sims in general...

there's nothing on the xbox360's line up that could make me buy one (and I've really been considering buying one lately), maybe Fable 2, but we all know that Peter is full of sh1te...

Eternal Sonnata? ah right PS3 is getting that aswell

seriously, you xbox 360 guys need to stop thinking that everyone loves shooters and sport games, because we do not

# Yo hey Quixand — Stealth! 2007-09-18 22:45

Whats good buddy i fully agree, 360 needs to expand there sales worldwide and not just in America, its because of that and getting rid of there first xbox MS isn't making any money in this business. They throw away there consoles likes its a used up tissue, while sony keeps there's and make sure it sells.

Also let me tell you guys this After watching Ninja Gaiden 2 for 360 i might be getting a 360 eventually for that game and halo 3.

But lets be realistic here Halo 3 will not dominate all for years time. yes it will bring up the sales and such for MS for months thats obvious but clearly Quixand is right about that not being the messiah of games. Did you knowthe first two halos as great as they were practically did S.H.I.T against PS2, kinda makes you wonder about halo 3 to PS3.

Also let me show you a wonderful article go to this site http://www.gamegrep.com/news/5249-halo_3_to_ruin_other_360_debutants_in_the_next_few_months_/

And it states this if you don't want to click on it:

"Nick Williams who is a games analyst at GamerMetrics predicts that Xbox 360 titles that will come out at the same time of Halo 3 or just after it will lose out because of the release of Halo 3 in the next few months. He believes this because though Halo 3 will be increasing sales of the Xbox 360 title because of mass pre-orders for the game this will give Xbox 360 users less time to play other games because of such features and hype of the game, and this will of course give a negative impact on the rest of the Xbox 360 Gaming Industry."

Which in other words my fine fellow xbots and fanboys Halo 3 will actually kill its own system, funny isn't it, the same game to be a PS3 killer is going to kill its own system talk about the irony.

# dito — Just_a_guy 2007-09-18 22:58

thats why I have a wii!

# ... — DVSDevise 2007-09-19 01:04

Actually the PS3 only out sold the 360 in Japan by 9 to 1, not 10 to 1. LOL

And if you combine the sales for both regions the 360 still beats the PS3.

Halo 3 will outsell anything sold on the PS3. And the fact that it's coming out with the PS3 at it's weakest in the holiday season it's going to push mass amounts of units this holiday season. The biggest game next year is GTAIV. With extra content, a lower SKU price point and a large game library i know which system is going to be pushing more units.

# actually — Quixand 2007-09-19 01:29

their newly announced games that Infinite Undiscovery or something and Lost Odyssey has got me thinking about getting a 360... i'll just tell my wife that i've still got an extra HDMI port!! haha!!! but that all depends on the line up of games for the PS3 in 2008 and even now it is looking freakin STRONG!!! so i might not feel the need to get a 360 when those Square Enix games gets released...

and besides if memory serves me correct both Eternal Sonata and The Last Remnant will be on the PS3 too...

but i have to give credit to Microsoft cause i've been posting over and over before that there are no games on the 360 which interests me, damn i've been waiting for such a game ever since the 360 launched for it to convince me to get one especially since the PS3 is not out yet and the Australian release was delayed... i kept buying mags, reading reviews, looking at trailers and reading about story lines but i never found a game that will make me transfer to XBox...

even these holiday where the 360 boasts of having the best lineup ever the big games are Bioshock and Halo 3 which are both shooters and PGR4 which is a racing game (the XBox hasn't convinced me inspite having loads of such games before and they won't convince me now) but there's still Mass Effect...

but on the PS3 there are loads of games that i like this Holiday in Heavenly, Drake, Folklore and Rachet... both consoles has NBA2K8 and Assassins Creed... so if i was a gamer without a nextgen console i would still buy a PS3 this holiday cause to me, personally, the PS3 has a better lineup in accordance to my preference.

but as i say i give credit to microsoft cause with the new games that Square Enix has for the 360 they are slowly changing my mind.

# Anal ists — shabghai360 2007-09-19 01:50

Many points in the article are relevant only if time stands still. Sounds like a contradiction. My point is that technology and developments move at a very fast pace. Plus games are being looked at as static! After playing Bioshock which I enjoyed I dug out Quake 4 and replayed from begin to end. My point of interest here is that often one game release can re-awaken interest in a previous game. Good games stay good. As for 2009, well that is arrogance to assume anything that far in the future right now. 360's are at a point where the 65nm process is very real and the 45nm is already in development. Producers of graphics chips are moving forward very fast aswell. An xbox 360 in 2009 might be a very different animal than today. Smaller quieter more efficient might even look sexy as opposed to a building brick. I believe the strength of the MS strategy is in its use of technology and software. By adhering to the principles of the PC architecture they can continually move forward without reinventing the wheel.

The HD DVD and the Blue Ray are in my opinion also irrelevant as PC user base will eventually decide the outcome. MS were in my opinion very smart to add a DVD drive to the console as opposed to betting on one of the horses in a 2 horse race. The HD DVD add on is easy and should 2008 or 2009 show that Blu-Ray is the winner then this could also be implemented as an add on. Most people that really enjoy games and sitting in their comfortable chairs in the living room are interested in the game not the technology wars. For those that really enjoy the online gaming experience then the console choice is based on which system lets them play games online with friends and strangers quick easy and without problems. Right now MS is doing very well here and with PC intergration online the base has the ability to increase further. I use xbox and my son uses play station. We are not at war with each other but for online gaming he prefers the xbox as its easy and very stable. In this area PS is still behind but improving.

Many say you need to pay MS a fee for the online play, well my son has spent a couple of hundred bucks for telephone bills as he had continual problems logging in or the game servers kept giving errors. He has had have some very enjoyable online play with PS but for these servers and online games he had to pay! All of the above is in no way a bash or support for a particular console, I am fortunate that if I want I can but it. The above is based purely upon my own thoughts on the subject and my final comment is let the game console race go on forever as this offers us the gamer the best games as they will continue to try and be better. If its a one horse race they do not need to compete and then we the gamers lose.

# Well... — Shatterdome 2007-09-19 04:40

if the price hits $299 canadian in 2009, i'll probably pick one up.

But in order for this to come true, PS3 is going to have to start living up to it's hype and really hope that cell can help with games....as long as 360 is making games comparable/better then PS3 and is cheaper...people will choose 360.

The unforunate thing is, even if they do start catching up in 2009....2009/2010 is when a new console should be due on the market, so will it really matter at that point ?

and does it really matter at all ? as no one company is going to go bankrupt and never enter the consoles arena again....they will all be there for a long time....

# Cough cough bs cough cough — wilmheath 2007-09-19 05:56

I'm sorry but this report smells like poo. First we are told that the ps3 will win because it's a better system. If that was true the xbox 1 would of won. Now we are told the ps3 will win even though it's sales keep dropping every month and so far it only has 1 good exclusive game on it? I'm not saying it won't happen but it just doesn't seem likely to me. I would rather support the american economy and I would hate to see a Japanese owned company win this war. All you Sony fanboys think about that next time you boot up your ps3. Your helping in the decline of the US economy by buying a system that is built upon hype instead of solid games. Happy gaming!

# Ha! Shatterdome — CHUCKINGROCKSATSPACESHIPS 2007-09-19 07:49

You don't have a PS3 and talk?! Funny because last time I looked, Heavenly Sword and LAIR look better already than most games that are coming out on the 360 now. Quality of content is king, not quantity of *****.

# Apu, 4 words, — CHUCKINGROCKSATSPACESHIPS 2007-09-19 07:54

Crap and more Crap.

# Do ppl actually take Wii as a CONSOLE? — na2rul 2007-09-19 08:15

Remember, SO-CALLED CASUAL GAMERs never brought/buy consoles. Do they mentally regard the Wii as a console or a gimmick? I say gimmick

# @CHUCKINGROCKSA TSPACESHIPS — na2rul 2007-09-19 08:27

Exactly.......

I always use to say, the Dreamcast had more games, played games better......but that didnt mean fug all to the PS2

# that will be interesting — na2rul 2007-09-19 08:44

Right now the Wiimote is [crap] because it doesnt manipulate real motion gestures in game. It only ......er......senses wrist movement. I honestly thought the Wiimote wud be more advanced

# Price means fug all — na2rul 2007-09-19 08:54

Remember GameCube was cheap so like i said, price means sod all. Wiimote is wot sells the Wii(duh?). Wereas games sell PS3 and xbox. The wiimote Will fade along with the console. I feel sorry for my lil cousin who was forced to trade in his ps2 along with all his games for a Wii..........He never plays it.( he was an underaged GTA fan)

# Games? — fiberwire 2007-09-19 11:27

what games are you looking forward to after halo 3? Halo 4? I think not. The PS3 *IS* getting cheaper by $100. I agree, the Wii is poison. They have a strong install base all over the world except Japan? you do know that North America and Japan aren't the only land masses on this planet right?

# .... — ackeejag 2007-09-19 11:30

that is just stupid. america's economy is not as bad as the fear mongering news makes it seem. we arent living in zinc huts yet so i think things are going well. besides m$ has enough of your money, they don't need more. consoles do not work like OS's. you don't have to update them every 5 years. you go out and buy the 3601.5 and ill enjoy a well build console that can outlast both of Microsoft's B.M.s

# They probably regard it as a console because they don't know any better — Master Chef 2007-09-19 14:34

I have one, it's just all right, I had fun playing Zelda for a total of 50 hours, but after that there wasn't much. I never played RE4 before, so that game is new to me, but aside from those two there is nothing to play. Besides the new Metroid, which I do not have yet, but it's supposed to be pretty good.

I'd say total I've played the Wii for around 70 hours, with 50 of those being Zelda as I stated before, RE4 and an odd rental here and there. Whereas I've probably played my 360 for well over 1000. In fact, I have over 300 logged on Oblivion alone, so now that I think about it the total is much much higher, probably well over 3000, maybe much higher, I really can't make a good guess I've played it so much.

Overall I'd regard the Wii as mostly a gimmick, it just sells because of the remote, the price, and the bright colorful games with Nintendo slapped on them.

# wii in china — shabghai360 2007-09-20 00:27

Living here in China the run on the wii is very high but not with the hard core gamers. The wii is selling really fast to the younger kids and families with young children. So the anal ists should also consider that young 9 to 14 year old wii gamers will want real graphics consoles as the 360 and PS3 in a couple of years.

PS2 is the main console here with 360 becoming more popular as it has games, but its the PC user base that cripple the 360 sales as many consider the PC graphics to be far superior. I have a 42" hdtv with the 360 using the hd cabel and optical for sound. I thought it was the cats whiskers playing Bioshock.But yesterday watching a Chinese friend running Bioshock on his PC and using a high end graphics card to pump the signal to his 42" tft screen I was amazed at how much more depth there was to the picture. (yes my screen is properly calibrated) The real point to this is that the xbox 360 using a PC architecture may well offer better specs as the console evolves and by 2009 what our ever friendly Anal ists predict is bull.

# Welll, there isn't much in it — tobyo1 2007-09-20 06:12

I can't see how you can predict what's going to happen with this generation of games consoles. I keep hearing reports about the PS3, Wii and 360's profits going through the roof one day and crashing into hell on the next. Also if Halo 3 is going to be such an "amazing" game and is going to be "the game of the decade" how is 360 going to lose with it's experienced range of games that are currently available and always being added to? How is PS3 going to suddenly becomes amazing and will catch up on Wii like a bullet? And where is the Wii going to go wrong with it's record breaking sales and it's increasing lead on PS3 and 360?

But you get the point I'm trying to make: this console war is seeming incredibly unpredictable and go easily turn in any direction. To see what's going to happen we're simply going to have to wait for it

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Analysts: Xbox 360 to fall in "distant third," PS3 to win console war by 2009

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