Iwata: Digital distribution will have to wait another 20 years before its turn |
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Digital downloads seem to be the way of the future, looking at the current landscape of the gaming industry now. Even analysts say that retail will be overtaken by digital distribution in a mere three years' time. Nintendo's big boss, Satoru Iwata, begs to differ, however. To him, digital distribution will sure be a hit -- but not till 20 years later.Talking to their investors, Iwata stated:
Most radical people even dare to say that retailers will be replaced by digital distribution in no time. But personally, I think it will still require a significant amount of time. In short, in 20 years or so I might say it will have probably changed. But in five years or so, I do not totally agree with opinions that no one will purchase titles at retailers by then. Habits of life do not change such radically and quickly.
I do agree that physical discs probably won't be phased out in five years. If the lukewarm reception of the PSP Go is any indication, gamers are not entirely that ready yet to part ways with their physical copies. However, I do find 20 years to be a tad too long for the digital transition to happen, especially when we're in that process of transitioning already.
What do you guys think? Will digital distribution be the lone future for games? How soon is soon?
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Comments [refresh]
In 5 years you will see a fairly mature digital distro market. Steam is already a huge success, whether people want to believe that or not. The days of decent hard copies has come to an end. Back in the day they used to include a really good manual with games, and the box was fairly large in size. Something to really display. Not to mention all the other goodies they used to include. These days you get a little pamphlet as a manual, and a game disc. Its just not the same. And people are really liking the convenience factor of being able to download and play games. No preorders or any of that crap. Plus the problem you face with downloading time is corrected by offering predownloading like steam, so the game is ready to play when it is released. You will see a lot more steam like interfaces in the future, its already happening on the consoles. Its Gaming on demand, and its already working very well for the motion picture industry.
i couldn't care less about keeping my hard copies. the PSN store links all purchases to your account for redownloading anytime on use to up to 5 systems. so if i could have all my already purchased games redeemed for digital versions and i slap a terabyte hdd in my ps3 id only buy digital already. the only thing i think NEEDS to happen is
- retailers should go the way of the psp go DD cards that we have in stores that way retailers can still have a need to exist as well as give us sales or employee prices (in my case) on the cards so were not bound to the stores prices then i say win win for everybody
the only hurdle i see that we have to jump is that attachment to being able to HOLD that media in your hand, i for one am already over it
bring on the DD era
You tell em' Iwata. A purely digital market will result in pure piracy for me.
Guess its all just a matter of opinion because I prefer a hard copy over trusting some company to keep a perfect record of my purchases. Hell im not trying to have companies keep track of how/what im purchasing any worst then it already is. So yeah go ahead and go for that digital distribution so companies can slap a statistic on everybody and project your sales even more to SELL you even more. I dont even see having any type of privacy eventually. You ever walk through a mall with someone trying to sell you and you know right away that they dont give a crap about you, and you just want to walk through the damn mall peacefully without being sold some $hit... well digitally, thats going to be your email account or PDA/cell phone eventually lol.
Ok this is just an opinion, or a single outlook... more then likely represented only by a select few or the minority of people. Besides, im high right now, so whats the point in arguing with a guy like that anyway?. (oh and I know they CAN still keep track of your digital purchases, but its much more difficult now then it will be in the future IMO)
Iwata sounds like a dumbass... I bet in 15 years you won't be able to find a CD on a store shelf anywhere without a long search.
For a long time to come, physical will still be the dominant or majority of purchases. I don't know about 20 years, that does seem like a long time to predict, but for at least the next 10 or so.
Hell, even 10 years is a long time to predict into the future.
You guys are forgetting that not everyone has a online connection so hard copies will always be made to sell to that market. Plus who the hell would want to purchase games from Live or PSN only, talk about eliminating the competition. Right now there is a war going on between Bestbuy and Gamestop that all gamers are benefiting from. Why would someone want to get rid of those options for DD. What if you want to take your games to someone elses house? are you going to re download all your games on that system and sacrifice one of your 5 downloads. Plus a hard copy has trade in value.
Actually it means the exact opposite. If everything's digital, games can be patched so no more exploits anymore. Look at the PSP Go. The only other option would be a modchip. And from what've seen, way more people use exploits instead of actual modchips.
" the PSN store links all purchases to your account for redownloading anytime on use to up to 5 systems."
Yeah but when you've used those 5 systems up, sony wont reset it for you.
(so when your ps3 breaks, thats one slot gone forever)
Digital downloads is just a way to con more money out of people and destroy the used game market
comsumers dont stand to gain anything out of it and can only really lose. imo
this is partly why piracy is a good thing.. its the only way we can get back at the thieving bastards
Just look at the Kindle - digital distribution of books, Amazon customers who bought Animal Farm and 1984 by George Orwell found out that the next time they turned on their kindle, the books they downloaded were gone.
This is because Amazon say they shouldn't have been sold in the first place, they were illegal copies.
I don't agree or disagree with that decision, however, it does show for whatever reason, e.g. very bad media publicity of a certain game causing uproar, or a game getting banned means it's very possible you could turn on your gaming system and say goodbye to your purchase. No amount of refunding is good enough, because when you buy a product, the moment the company hands it over to you, it should be yours to keep, throw away, whatever.
That being said, every system has pros and cons, one good point is this is an environmentally way of distributing games.
Personally I'm not for it though. I wouldn't mind being given the choice. If someone else wants to use that system of distribution then sure, but it's not for me.
I don't know, nor do I care, about digital distribution at all what-so-ever. Nothing is better than actually owning a hard copy for yourself. I don't care WHAT the records say. If I buy a game online, who owns the game anyway? Not me. It's on my PSP or PS3 or whatever, sure, but what if it gets deleted? Okay, re-download it..."Oops! Sorry valued customer! Our PSN store is offline for tech support!"
There is simply nothing like the feel of actually owning a physical copy of the game in your hand. To play whenever you wish.
And also, hard copies are a god send for me. It take me exactly 47 MINUTES to download 100 megabytes. Yes, I DID type that correctly. Only one hundred megabytes in 3/4 of an hour.
PS3 games get up SUPER high in size. Blu-ray disks can hold 40 GIGS (Sometime 80 if dual-layered!) If I was to download, say, a game that is 25 gigs (A game this big has already been released, so don't complain about how that's impossible) it would take me between NINE and TWENTY DAYS!! 9-20 DAYS!I do not now, nor will I ever, like digital distribution, but it's not even the download time that gets me.
There is just some form of attachment you get from a game. And it also has sentimental worth, like it's more than just a game.
TRUE gamers will not stand for this. The market for hard copies will stay open for REAL gamers. GOOD gamers. TRUE gamers.
Just think of the Psp go as grooming us into accepting a future of digital downloads, obviously Sony would like to sell more of the things but a big reason for it's existence is so sony can get an early start building the digital download infrastructure.
i think the reason Iwata said 20 years because he was talking to investors
im betting in 3 years we will have a very large digital distribution market, with consoles for kids the only ones that have physical copies
i dont think you can break a ps3 5 times before another playstation console comes out
But i still have and play games from over 20 years ago and some of them are actually worth some money now, modern consoles just aren't as reliable as in the old NES days, so 5 consoles isn't that much when you never actually own the digital games and can't resell.
"What if you want to take your games to someone elses house? are you going to re download all your games on that system and sacrifice one of your 5 downloads. Plus a hard copy has trade in value."
Log in, download, play, delete game, deactivate account from system. You won't ever get near that 5-system limit. Or did you just not know how the system works?
Just think of the PSP Go as a waste of money better spent elsewhere. Just because games are distributed online doesn't mean they can't be cracked or patched. Plenty of commercial programs which are years ahead of Sony in security get cracked.
I guess you really DON'T know about digital distribution because no game that would take a full Blu-ray disk would ever appear on the PSN. They wouldn't want to host it and no one would want to download it. It's the same reason there's no piracy on the PS3 - how much do you want to spend on backup Blu-ray discs?
And speaking of Blu-ray, installs are becoming more and more mandatory, requiring larger and larger hard drives. Larger than most download-only games, even. Why do you NEVER complain about that?
And as for "Our PSN store is offline for tech support!"... both digital AND Blu-ray games require and receive MANDATORY software patches. You're relying on the PSN whether you like it or not. Why do you NEVER complain about that?
Not to mention some games wouldn't even get MADE if not for digital distribution. You think a game like Flower would have a chance at retail?
Obviously it will be cracked but every time someone cracks Sony's security Sony finds a way to improve it, the fact the Psp 3000 hasn't been fully hacked yet shows they are learning, and Sony getting in early with digital downloads means they will have a big headstart in security.
Luckily, Sony's DRM is nothing like Amazon's. Let's compare:
Sony VS Amazon
- no syncing with a server every time you play a game (making remote deletion impossible; your system is either activated or not, and games downloaded only require that the system it's being played on is activated - not that if it's still on some server somewhere) VS required syncing every time
- Unlimited redownloads VS limited downloads
- 5 systems with the ability to deactivate VS an unknown + varying number of systems per content
- easy backups VS NO backups
Can you say xbox 360? BTW those break by theirself. Dont worry in the future we will get more crappy consoles that break wayy before their ten year lifespan. Thogh their features will be outstanding.
Digital only is lame and like Musev said its just there to con more money. You wont get no "good" online deal in which they lower the price. The only good deal online could ever have is 50% off.
Not to mention 90's console are wayyy more reliable. As a matter of fact all of mine still work and never had a issue unlike my 360.
Dont be a fool and fall into the trap. Consoles break, hard drives fail. No body wants to download gigs, and who the heck cares about steam. Take care of your freaking disc then, and put them back in their cases duh.
Sorry, I'll take digital distribution when I'm able to easily carry it to my friend's house and play. Like when you go away for college, you and your roommate both have 360s, I want to be able to have him bring his system and me bring over my games.. Until I can do that without the Spore-ish hassle I'm happy with DVDs (or my DS roms lol no loading times!)
what happened with xbox is different. it was their fault, not the user's.
if your ps3 malfunctioned because of some sh**ty design error, i bet a lot of consumers would want their 1/5 system back and i bet sony would give it back.
developers are losing a lot of money with reselling and piracy, digital distribution is just a necessary move for them to make money.
it will halt piracy, but not forever.
having a digital market, in my opinion, will make the developers at least 1 step ahead against piracy.
Thanks for the update on that Billylee.
Yeah, luckily Sony's DRM is is nothing like Amazon's. That's not to say other companies will necessarily adopt a similar method or that future sony consoles will always have these DRM methods that the PSP Go has. But at the moment, that seems fair enough.
Until then I'll wait and see.
Either way, nothing for me will replace having something to show, like with a physical game I enjoy, something I physically own, it's hard to explain but I'm sure some people will understand what I mean.
Whether this system is technically better, or that system is technically better, is irrelevant to me. All that matters to me is that I can choose the way in which I want to purchase my games in future.
Whether or not I, and indeed others, will get that right, I don't know. Let's wait and see. But as far as I can see it doesn't look likely.
What about scratched discs? I hate that crap. With digital distribution that's not a problem. And who actually needs to download a game 5 times?
I think digital downloads will eventually be the main way of getting software, but discs wont be phased out.
on certain occasions, we will NEED a physical disc, and that constant need will continue the life of the physical disc.
the current climate of fast bandwidth isn't widescale yet and still pretty expensive so unless the bandwidth prices come down, then physical hard copies will still be viable for the mainstream!
But it wasn't actually mention in the article. Digital Download is one domain that a lot of users are going to have trouble in. It all comes down to bandwidth and and storage space. I have a 60 gig, if i was to DL games i'd maybe get 2-4, depending on the games. Also, that 2-4 games would cost the same (or maybe $10 cheaper per game) but it would take me up to 36 hours to download all that, and cost me around $70 more in bandwidth. if i had the option, i'd go and get it at the shop (unless the file was free :P). Also Payment, i don't buy anything online, cause i don't got a CC, nor does most of the gaming market, or at least the ones who spent the most time on the machines, the kids.
I guaged the timing on a 13.1 GB Movie that i downloaded on torents. It was cached by my isp, so only took around 5-7 hours (full Speed, 7.5Mbit approx). The internet is getinng faster, but i think we'll need to see gigabit internet in every home before any of this will be truly viable.
i dont feel like contacting sony or anyone trying to get back the ability for another digital install. If its on a disc i wont have to worry about contacting nobody because that disc will work on multiple consoles. Yea sony might give it back, but who wants to go through all of that trouble.
its all sonys fault, if they relese games on fancy flash memory cartriges like nintendo we wouldnt be going through this.
why ya gatta be so difficult?
All they need to do is this
sale the hard copy of the game at the store with the digital copy with it, just like some bluray movies do. If everyone does that, bam no more complaints. You get both. To me digital stuff has no value to it, but them hard copies sure do.
I agree, it's got a long way to go before the infrastructure is mature enough. As it stands broadband penetration isn't 100%, whereas everyone has access to a store, or at the very least access to an online store where they can order physical copies.
What we need is fast, constant connections to the whole country (which you think would be easy in England...). Until then it's going to remain where it is.
Any online service also needs to reflect what Steam currently does - keep prices low and have frequent sales and deals. It's actually cheaper here (UK) to buy games from the shop or online than to buy from the PSN. I bought Dissidia new and sealed for £11 from Gamestation. The usual price in stores is £17-19. How much is it on PSN? (real question, I can't access the PSP store on custom firmware)
Jesus wept! 2-4 games on a 60gb HDD? I have 55 games on Steam raging from classics to very new (including the L4D2 preload AND it's demo) at 90gb.
"To me digital stuff has no value to it, but them hard copies sure do."
Sad that this is the majority view in our materialistic world. I mean, even I feel that way to a certain extent :(
Dissidia Price on PSN is $39.99 usd.
20 years ? More like 5 and it's already happening (Steam, Apple Store). But why so expensive ? Digital content is way easier to distribute. Hard copies have to be labeled, packaged, shipped, handled, etc.
If we could buy games 4x cheaper than they already are, why the heck not ?
A quick conversion puts PSN Dissidia at £26, but hell it would be more than that knowing Sony. Either way it's still so much more expensive than a physical copy with a box and manual.
And there's another major problem with DD. It basically destroys the previous idea of publications. Which is a publisher per region will fund and distribute the game... But with DD there is no limitation, yet even Valve force this upon international buyers.
The whole system needs an update before DD can go ahead. Publishers need to publish internationally , not based on region. If you want to buy a foreign game then that option should be available. Prices should also be fixed. A $40 game should be £26 (and of the same value in each region).
I like DD and I swear by it for PC gaming because it is so flexible there. I want it on all my systems but I want it to be the best that it can be.
I very rarely buy new games and generally wait for them to be cheap second hand, dd would kill that market which would be a huge benefit to sony/mikerosoft etc as they currently make zilch from the used game market
As has also already been mentioned bandwidth, isp's setting download limits and not everyone having an internet connection.
No I'll take the disc everytime thanks
Jesus doesn't like me, cause i don't play *****ty classic games on crappy "i have to be online" Steam. Was talking PS3 games, as a lot of us are - Yet another reason this site needs to be better segregated - I actually have several terabytes of space in my house - just not on PS3.
Anyways, who buys games on PSP CFW. If you do digital, do digital, if you don 't, don't.
@DSpider. Digital is noot as easy when we are talking HD games, which the world is moving towards. Games Are getting MUCH Larger, PS3 proves this, and PC WILL Follow Suit as Graphics processors, CPU's and RAM Tehc Get Better and Better.
Iwata was not commenting on whether DD will be a "very large market in 3 years", he was talking about when it will totally replace retailers. And that will take at least 10-15 years.
I hope it doesn't happen even by then, but it seems inevitable at this point. The day I'm forced to pay $60+ for every game and have no physical product to resell when I'm done using it will be the day I stop gaming. Not to mention if my account were to get stolen with $1000+ worth of games on it... I would never trust it.
100% DD would ONLY benefit the companies selling the games and the publishers, who already make a killing on game sales. It would not benefit the people who work hard to make the games (who average about 35k yearly for 60-80 hour workweeks + weekends BTW) and certainly would not benefit the consumer.
Master has it right. At least someone read and understood the article.
I also agree, I hope it doesn't happen. Imagine closing every single Gamestop in the US. How many people would be job less? Since when it killing jobs a good thing? Killing retail IS NEVER A GOOD THING. Plus everything else he said, I hate downloaded games unless they're $9.99 flash games. DR protected stuff can suck my balls!!!!
Something else to look at. What retail? Where? Broadband is different all around the world. The US is horrible when it comes to broadband speeds. If DLC takes over retail it'll do it one region at a time. Not all at once. Probably starting with the UK.
Not sure what your point is billy. Also you helped to prove cade's point.
"no game that would take a full Blu-ray disk would ever appear on the PSN."
BINGO!!! I guess that means hard copy will be around forever then.
Games are going to get bigger and bigger. 20 years from now a 3D game, not requiring glasses might I add, could take up 100GB+. Who the frack is going to download that?
Also, that is NOT why piracy isn't on the PS3. You don't have to burn BD discs in order to copy the games. You would either play the game in ISO form or just have the entire game laid out on a HDD and play from that.
There's no piracy on the PS3 because Sony got it RIGHT before everyone else.
Almost forgot... by the time digital distro becomes REALLY popular... games will be even larger there by negating the increase in everyones broadband. So it'll just keep getting harder and harder to download games.
At this point in time, who the hell is going to download FFXIII? Any guesses to the size of the game? MG5?
Digital Download is great for small games. It works for some people and doesn't work for others.
How the hell do you figure that? Digital content is pirated all the time.