Console-icide: former Xbox exec says consoles will die within decade |
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Last year, there's been a lot of talk about a one-console future. Electronic Arts and Silicon Knights' Denis Dyack in particular, were very outspoken on the matter.However, one former Xbox executive disagrees on the matter. To Sandy Duncan, former VP of Xbox Europe, there won't be a one-console future. In fact, there won't be consoles at all.
Duncan believes that in 5 to 10 years, consoles will die out. But that doesn't mean the end of gaming:
The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years.
The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high.
There is a definite “convergence” of other devices such as set top boxes. There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example.
In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”
An interesting thought. Consoles today are already being pushed as being more than just gaming devices. The online features and media offerings of the PlayStation Network and Xbox Live are testaments to that.
However, it may be some time before we see exactly what the future holds. Duncan's thoughts seem plausible, but it'll take a few years before we'll actually be able to see if the consoles' trends are heading in that direction.
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Comments [refresh]
seems tons of UN-informed people love to weigh in on this topic. Many consider this an Orwellian idea that's pure futuristic fantasy; while still others believe the transition is already happening and the capability is there.
yep...just like most analysts, I typed a whole lot of nothing.
Saying there wont be consoles in a decade is like saying our oxygen will deplete in a decade.
I doubt that Nintendo/Microsoft/Sony would allow consoles to die, I mean it is a huge business...
consoles will die out,but that doesnt mean there wont be other gaming devices.as for me i dont think consoles will die but evolve
even though the PSP isn't a TV console, It has been used for MANY other things than gaming(mostly by homebrew creators)
He comes to this conclusion that consoles will be fased out while working for Microsoft under the Xbaux division... man, do they even think that they're going to get anywhere in the industry?
Kidding aside, I don't think it'll happen for a VERY long time. Just like those fools at MS who believe HD movies will be digital data only in the next 5 years. The fact that there are just so many people without the ability to get connected with these features means IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. The moment you get an affordable, world wide solution to bringing people broadband then it will start, but not until then.
Every DVD-Rom on the regular xbox around here is dead.
My NES still works and so does my SNES. Sega, PS1
Xvox 360 Arcade...
Lol, like in the old movies, where they thaught that in 2000, we'd live on the moon... While in fact, the NASA doesn't have any more subvention and cannot even go to the moon till 2018, and it won't be to live there, lol.
Anyway, it's fantastic, I mean, Sony tryed the E-distribution with the ps3 and we're not there at all. Between Warhawk in BD or download, I choose BD.
Maybe I would say this post have sense if, instead of 5-10 years, he would have said something around 30-40 years. That would surely be true. But 5 years? It's like saying there won't be a ps4 nor x720 nor nintendo crazy, lol. And it's not like gaming will go on PC since nobody really pay for PC games (dah, surf sites like mininova.org or thepiratebay.org or isohunt.com, etc.)
PS: SORRY to the long post, I hate to read those.
Well everything would be virtualize? We don't have that kind of technology yet! SO wait 30 or 40 years when the worlds becomes the worst place to live u decide not ever born in that decade!!
Well At leas the Global warming would be at his Critical Stage...
Thanks to the Fabrics!!! and Cars!!
fuel>makes>Electricity>on> the >fabric.
Thats all! Theres no a Real Pure Source of Energy without using fuel!!
Well 5 to 10 yers Consoles will still exist! Evolved but still ExisT!
If virtualize like SNES,GBA,Sega,n es and etc!
Not even PSP is not virtualize, U cant play ISOS PSP games on a PC, I mean Just puzzle Bubble really slow!! Who likes that anywaY!
DS is virtualize U can use an emulator and is not so slow!
GBA too
SneS too
PS1
PS2
GC
N64
and etc
almost every Console is virtualize, ported to use in a PC.
So its a good IDEA but not now, just wait some more!!
Thanks!
PSPMAN90
You can play movies on computers just fine...
really people who believe that consoles will die to let place to PC is ignorant, as long as Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo exist there wilol be consoles...
Well! the reality behind all portable and Home console is that they are too expensive, neither if you are capable to afford it or not well just think how much a good PS3 or XBOX360 game cost about $60 up to $70 and to think of the future, the price tag will be $100 and more...Listen all Gamers need to understand that life is not getting better but worst, every penny counts. We need to think smarter than smart, I say live long Hacker/Coder (i.e) Dark-Alex and Team M33 including others.
thanks for your great God giving gift on being able to hacked the 'PSP' Thank you and keep up the Good work!!! all you Hacker and Coder you are all Brilliant.
by: psJean A.K.A nX2Go
More like in 5 years there won't be an Xbox business anymore because they still wouldn't have made a penny's profit from it. PS3 will have reached 100 million units, surpassing even Wii. Microsoft will still losers whether it's 5 years or 10 years from now.
I always thought that there will be a news coverage for the last remaining xbox360 that finally turn RROD. Hopefully that would be my 360 =P
microsoft in particular. most of their gaming revenue comes from console sales. the other two companies would still make a reasonable profit if they only sold games, but microsoft game studios makes so few games that i seriously doubt they would let the market limit them to that small amount of revenue.
Are you kidding? Microsoft is LOOSING money on its console business. They are loosing money left and right all over that division. Its hard to make up a 7 billion dollar bill just to make the XBOX brand and then have to shell out another what? 3 billion dollars on the whole RROD problem? Let alone that the XBOX360 still isnt profitable per unit?
The Wii is profitable per unit and the Playstation 3 is dead even on each unit. Microsoft would LOVE for Consoles to die, so they can then try to force feed us LIVE for Windows where they dont have to dump any money into any hardware and still take your money.
I highly doubt the PS3 and Wii will just give up on making consoles in 5 years even IF they lose some money in the process. Now as for the xbox 360, it could die for all I care. No skin off my balls =P
I swear to God I've told thousands of ignorant tools like the guy above this, and if I have to do it again I'll kill myself.
For the last motherf*cking time, LIVE for Windows is FREE OF CHARGE. FREE to play PC vs PC multiplayer, FREE LIVE guide with messages and chat, FREE everything. The only thing you have to pay for is if you want PC vs 360 cross-platform play. And if you do pay, you also get LIVE on your 360 if you have one. That's a great deal for a petty $50 per year IMO
I don't love MS, and I usually don't defend them this vigorously, but I HATE it when people say this stupid crap. It takes 5 seconds and Google to find out LIVE for PC is free. You get everything PC games have always had, multiplayer, PLUS free system-wide chatting and messaging. Of course, you could get the same function from Xfire, but it's FREE, and the 360 Guide is a great feature. It is NOT a money-grab by MS
This surprises you? People that own PS3s are scared to get a PS account because they think it costs money.
PS3 reaching 100 million? Not impossible; I doubt Sony intends to break that habit, and affordable Blu-ray will dunk the price to a level where that's practice.
MS losing? They'll always be a big part of the gaming world, even if Xbox magically disappeared; games are a part of why Windows is so dominant, and MS is a big part of games for PC.
You don't see idiots on the Internet saying "PSN costs money, it's just a money-grab by Sony". That's what pisses me off
they might be in a different form such as intergrated in your pc but even then y would sony allow theirs to be in one. ms would love consoles to die to push their games for windows idea(paying for pc gaming online whats the world coming to) but this aint gunna happen
All these people saying the 360 is bad.
Well as someone without a PS3 or 360 and with GTA 4 coming out next month... For £150 (plus my friends spare 360 HDD) I'll be buying a 360 with GTA since it has Live/Achievements to add more bulk to the game, extra DLC and a rumbling and just better controller!
360 has so many more and better games. Looking over metacritic and gamerankings it seems the 360 has more 90%+ rated games than any other modern console. As a gamer thats what I'm after. And at least I have a 3 year warranty on a 360 unlike the other 2 manufacturers.
What? --You mean you don't believe that everything will run via Web Services on our 100mbps Broadband internet connections (which every one of will be provided with by our reliable cable operators)? --I don't see your point. DVD-Recorders + Xbox + PS3. Very clear to see.
(Obviously, I'm being very facetious here: I think Sandy Duncan is smoking some serious crack.)
Ok, so Windows Live for PC is free TODAY. If ALL games were somehow delivered completely via the internet (that's what Sandy Duncan in this article supposes: that you'd have some "translation device", probably a computer of modest means, that can run Java or likely a proprietary DirectX widget, that can feed your system a game from a remote server ---not JUST the internet connection); don't think for a second that Microsoft would soak you up the %#$@ for it. Look at Live for 360. Even amidst a growing and growing FREE PSN for PS3, Microsoft is STILL charging $50 a year just to play network games on XBL. --You actually that naive to believe that if they had the entire real-time delivery of GAMES THEMSELVES (as well as the networking link) wrapped-up that they wouldn't profit highly from it? What amazes me is that (over the years) Microsoft execs, employees, former employees, etc. are always coming out with these spaced-out pure MS-only profit-technology schemes. We see how devastating some can be to the free market and wipe-out whole industries and valid competitors. And yet there are still gullible sorts to eat this up and think that MS has a single humanitarian bone in their corporate body. (And, please don't get me started on the Gates Foundation: uber-billionaires giving out a few millions for their own tax relief ever year, after bilking all those billions through dubious means from you, me, and their competitors.)
Millions of people buying the Wii suggests that people are purchasing based on price not technological advancements.
They'll just become more and more like PCs.
100mb connections a 50gb file still takes over an hour to download. How long does it take to drive to blockbuster and back for most people? If its longer than an hour commute then chances are you will not be getting a 100mb connection anytime soon either as you live out in the boonies.
Why would they need a warranty? Ps3 and Wii don't just die on you.
The HD Disc of an Xbox360 can hold 15GB if its a single layer. A Blue-ray disc single layer can hold 25GB and 50GB on a dual layer disc. Im not saying that GTA4 will fill the disc (or even HD Disc) but in the long run, when games get bigger and better, id rather have the system that has less memory constraints thank you very much.
and i have 10 games for my ps3.
3 games for xbox
I'm not sure how I missed the point, because Lemmi was saying LIVE for PC DOES cost money, not that it will cost money in the future, but w/e
But MS charges for 360 online play because it's their console, and people are willing to pay it. The PC community simply would not stand for pay-to-play multiplayer. They could try it, but I don't think they'd get far.
If it got to the point you and this Duncan are making, and MS really did own everything regarding game delivery and networking, they could charge a premium for just about everything and people would have to pay. Hopefully it never comes to that
BTW I doubt PSN will be free come next generation, like MS Sony is just a corporation, and one I doubt has a humanitarian bone as well. PSN is a great service with enough features that people would be willing to pay for now, so it's inevitable.