Posted Nov 16, 2006 at 03:15PM by Max F. Listed in: Wii, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 Tags: Merrill Lynch
Ó

Merrill Lynch - the bullBefore you start flamining each other, heed our words. Put not your trust in analysts nor in the representatives of firms in whom there is no help.

With that said, Merrill Lynch, the firm who said the PS3 won't do well, now says the PS3 will not do so bad. Let's go straight to the numbers. Merrill Lynch has a forecast for the fiscal year ending March of 2011. Wow. They obviously employ really good mathematicians, actuarians, statisticians, and market analysts to make such a confident long-term analysis.

Worldwide: Xbox wins, Wii loses

Xbox 360: 39% of the market
PS3: 34% of the market
Wii: 27% of the market

The PS2 currently has 69% of the market. So by 2011, Microsoft and Nintendo will have doubled their shares, or so says Merrill Lynch. By the way, you might recall that Merrill Lynch had glowing words for Nintendo, and you might remember Merrill Lynch's forecast for the Xbox 360 (in November of 2005 they said the 360 would cost half of the PS3 by the end of 2006).

North America: Xbox 360 wins, Wii loses ("the world's biggest market" according to Merrill Lynch analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita)

Microsoft: 50% of the regional market
Sony: 27% of the regional market
Nintendo: 23% of the regional market


Japan: PS3 wins, Xbox 360 loses

PS3: 57% of the national market
Wii: 39% of the national market

This leaves 4% unaccounted for. Merrill Lynch did not mention the Xbox 360.

What do we think? Announcements like this affect business. The future of companies partly depend on investments, and investors really do listen to Merrill Lynch. It is one of the biggest providers of investment advice, wealth management, and asset management services in the world.

We might be tempted to call Merrill Lynch's forecast an "estimate," but these have real impact in the financial world. Fiscal announcements can be self-fulfilling. If investment firms say the Wii will not win, then who'll invest in Nintendo? If Nintendo doesn't have enough money to address really long-term plans, then yes, Nintendo just might really lose.

What do we think? They can't be sure. By 2011 there might be another next-gen console out, and that will upset all these numbers. And there's no clear idea yet about the games that are yet to be released - nor is there any clear understanding of how popular online gameplay will be for each console and how this will affect their fandoms.

What do we think? Buy the console(s) you want and, for the love of gaming, just keep playing! We called our psychic, Le Clairvoyant de la Consoles de Jeux, and he said that in 2011, people have grown tired of electronic gaming, and in that brave new world, the most popular game is pogs. Goes to show nothing is certain. So game on!


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24 Comments


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   by Gryff33 - 2006-11-16
 » Bias and profit

Gotta love QJ's commitment to unbiased coverage. When Merril Lynch predicts the PS3 will lose, it's BS. When they predict Wii will lose, it's a serious issue.

Last time I checked, the PS2's high market share didn't keep Sony from a huge profit drop, and the Gamecube's low market share didn't keep Nintendo from a huge profit gain. Furthermore, as Sony gains no profit from the PS3 itself, the high number of people only buying the hardware to sell it on eBay or whatever will put a dent in their finances. Ultimately, it's not market share but profit that keeps a company afloat.


   Re: Max F. (QJ. NET Staff) - 2006-11-16
 » It just sounds serious... but it is NOT - hehe

But if you read my article, I am still implying BS. LOL Who was it who said that Max F. articles suck because the only reason he mentions analysts is so he can make fun of them? If you think there was a bias in this article, it is because my words came out stilted - I really had to be careful lest I unleash a pan-platformic flame war. :P As for profit, I do not think profit was ever considered here. It was just market share - a plain numbers game of looking at how many units have been sold and how many people own X unit or whatever. It is basically a head count. :)

Edited by Max F. (QJ Staff) , because:
Just fixing the ' characters that were messing up the apostrophes. I am using a sucky browser right now. :)
   by Gryff33 - 2006-11-16
 » Right...

Curious that a staff member is listed as unregistered.


   Re: Max F. (QJ. NET Staff) - 2006-11-16
 » It is a bug. Really...

I think we are getting a site update right now - or my new browser add-ons are not compatible with QJ. Honest. :) Come back in a bit. :) :)

Edited by Max F. (QJ Staff) , because:
Just fixing the ' characters that were messing up the apostrophes. I am using a sucky browser right now. :)
   by badam - 2006-11-16
 » ..

There trying to change the future out come of these console when they havent even came out yet.

   by slyck (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » Hahahaha............

Typical bulls**t, I would Imagine by 2011 the 720 would be with us and it'll start all over again, personally I can't see the devil's spawn (sony) or nintendo competing against the online network M$ has in place. Sony should go back to audio and nintendo need to realise people want more than cutesy graphics and a magic wand ;)

   by Regime2008 - 2006-11-16
 » hmmm

i wonder y the 360 is said to have 50% over here n winnin, but ps3 dominatin in Japan....mayb cuz sony a Jap. company....? who knows? I just kno 360 is better reguardless games r performance. Ps3 got higher specs, but 360's hardware can do more than the ps3 can


   Re: jah. (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » yup

thats why reviews are all saying that the 360 versions of PS3/360 games are superior in graphics AND features... and they are saying that wii graphics look the same as gamecube- harsh.
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   by CSFFlame - 2006-11-16
 » interesting

They are making predictions that it will lose without it having launched yet.

Launch sales will be a good indicator of what it to come...


   Re: roseysdaddy - 2006-11-16
 » No they aren't...

....thats the dumbest thing said in this thread so far.

Hell, K.Fed can even sell some albums IN THE BEGINING....what will determine the out come is who is selling the highest number of games/systems one, two or three years from now. Do you honestly think that ANY system is not going to have good launch sales....?

   Re: CSFFlame - 2006-11-16
 » Re: roseysdaddy

I'm referring to the games too.

Take a look at the PS3 game sales for an example of a bad launch.

   Re: .. (Unregistered) - 2006-11-17
 » ..

roseysdaddy 's point still stands
   by AzaMcWazza (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » Those are units..

from what I can tell, not profit or expected growth. Units mean almost squat to investors, it's the management and growth potential that's more important.

   by Indonesia (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » Truth?

New-gen consoles aren't trying to grab the entire pie (that is SO unrealistic!) as much as wrestle over a slice of it -- a slice that old-timers have abandoned. ;-o

   by Jeff K-AMN (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » Typical stupidity in forecasting

They do this mindless crap every generation and they're always wrong unless it's a solid undisputed given fact (like ps2 gobbling up.) Stuff like this is just wrong to be done as they truly have no clue at all, it's just speculation.

   by Shane (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » wrong

if they were wrong before, who says they will be right this time, and their opinion won't change peoples minds, and thats b.s. that the 360 will be 50% of north america

   by Bearmon (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » lol

Merril is an idiot. I wish I can email and tell them to shovel ps3 and xbox 360 up their asses. They assume just like that ? JERK!

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   by SomeDude (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » Europe > NA

The analyst has overlooked a market MUCH larger with a population MUCH more willing to 'waste money' on electronic goods. Europe. Europe is equal or greater than NA in determining the 'winner'.


   Re: Nameless (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » Europeans FT*?


Personally, I wouldn't say that Europeans matter more than NA.

But they are a big market. Very big.

And with the delay of the PS3 there, that will MORE THAN DEFINATELY affect sales and profits.
   by Vietone - 2006-11-16
 » Wow just way off.

The PS2 sold over 110 Million units.

The Xbox sold 24million.
The Xbox360 may end up selling more then 24 million by the end of its life cycle.

The PS3 however may end up selling over 50 million in its lifetime. If possible they might even make it to 100 million by the end of the life cycle if they can manufacture enough and when the price drops come.

With the demand the PS3 is showing right now. People are more likely to go home empty then walk away with a consolation Xbox360. Some may end up buying a XBox360 and later buying a PS3.

Fact being, with the countless people waiting in lines knowing they have a slim chance of getting a PS3, who would want to waste the saved money on a 2nd choice system.


   Re: +D (Unregistered) - 2006-11-17
 » +D

'Fact being, with the countless people waiting in lines knowing they have a slim chance of getting a PS3, who would want to waste the saved money on a 2nd choice system. '

couldnt agree more actually

   Re: Gen (Unregistered) - 2006-11-17
 » They May Learn...

They may learn to love the 360 +)

Power house !+ Win -- just look at the PSP.

   by CosmosStopper (Unregistered) - 2006-11-16
 » Wii360

I am going with my current 360 and will be picking up the Wii as well. Sony has finally lost a fanboy. I just don't have the confidence in the PS3 that I had with the PS2. I have seen it in action and yes it is beautiful, but it is just not enough for me. I don't have the time I use to have to play through a FF game or other 20+ hour games. Now if I can actually get a new more innovative experience, as I am hoping with the Wii, I might be able to squeeze a few more gaming hours into my week. Merrill Lynch might be right, they might not. Only the gamers know for sure.

As for me.... I'll have a Wii for social fun and a 360 for the graphics, enough said....

   by Gen (Unregistered) - 2006-11-17
 » PS3

Who really benifits from these next gen gfx? I've been thru all of the nintendo's from the beginning, as well as the sony consoles -- and it's been fun. But, no adult has the time any more, and kids really don't care about the graphics.

Sony's been *****ing up alot. Expect bad things to happen with the PS3.



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