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Downloads to Replace Traditional Media Within 10 Years?

Posted Mar 03, 2006 at 12:20PM by Montana A. Listed in: News
Ó



Gameindustry.biz has posted an article about EA's predictions that there will be a shift from traditional optical media to downloadable games and movies within 10 years because of the constant increase in Hard Drive size and internet connection speed and the cost-effectiveness of a download service over the world-wide shipping of hard copies.


EA's European VP of sales, Dr. Jens Uwe Intat, has given the clearest signal yet of the firm's commitment to digital distribution - stating that within the next ten years, "all entertainment media will be downloaded to a device."

Speaking at the firm's European HQ in Chertsey, Dr. Intat told GamesIndustry.biz that ten years from now "CDs, DVDs and boxed games will be as antiquated as cassette tapes and vinyl records."

He gave the examples of Apple's iTunes, the massive ring-tone business, and the growing trade in digital books as clear indicators of where media distribution technology is headed, and predicted that new business models would emerge to complement the existing up-front payment model as digital distribution became more popular.

However, Dr. Intat was adamant that EA and other videogame publishers would not allow the situation which has arisen in the music industry - where Apple's dominance of digital distribution with the iTunes Music Store has allowed them to set prices independently of the wishes of major music publishers - to be repeated here.

"I think the music industry has actually let iTunes happen," he said. "The music industry had been working on a model like that for years - they just couldn't agree on a standard, on how to share the cake. They were fighting all the time, instead of going for it, and then a new company actually came into that space, started with a technology model - and then dictated the software, and how the content would be distributed."

"Right now, iTunes is pretty much a monopoly," he continued. "They have, I don't know, around 80 to 90 per cent market share. We still have three large players in the console business, plus we have the PC as a fourth hardware device, not to mention the handhelds. This is a much more fragmented industry - we don't have one company that has a monopoly - and we as a total industry, software publishers and hardware manufacturers, are already sitting together and working on business models. We're actually trying to make the cake as big as possible, rather than fighting over the crumbs."

While Dr. Intat's comments are the clearest indication yet of EA's belief in a future where all videogame content is downloaded rather being sold in physical form, he was guarded in his response to a query about what this meant for traditional retailers.

"Firstly, traditional retailers are also entering the online space," he said. "The Wal-Marts of the world are competing with the Amazons of the world in traditional products - and they will do so in the online space."

"Secondly, there will always be - well, always is a little too far-reaching maybe, but for a very long time there will still be distribution of physical products. We should not underestimate the value of the reach that we do have today with our products - the impulse purchases that people are making, and that there are a huge amount of consumers out there who still want to buy physical products. The gift market also, the parents and grandmothers who still want to purchase presents for kids, and will still continue purchasing products in physical form," he concluded.

[Via gameindustry.biz] Permalink  |   Email this  |   Linking Blogs   |   Digg It!

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5 Comments


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   by comedy - 2006-03-04
 » the loss of data
has anyone ever had their hard drive fail on them? i know i have, and i was very upset that all my stuff had just vanished... now if i had paid for everything on my hard drive and it had failed i think it would drive me to insanity! just imagine if you had bought loads and then your hdd went wrong!

i don't like it, hard copy will ALWAYS be preferrable to downloads.

   by liquidfire0012 - 2006-03-04
 » of course it will
Its obvios that in 10 years we wont be using CDs. theill just be as garbage as a VHS..As time goes by everything gets...better and well, less. Thats right, less. Less because the media, the household components decrease in size
and eventually will become just like in the sci fi movies. But dont be plannin on seeing anythig like that for another 40 years or so. But yes, everythin will change unbeliavably. Cars wudnt look nothing like they wud today and especially entertainment. Consoles i dont know but i doubt theill be around forever untill some company "sony" creates a virtual reality sim, or a holographic sim.
Future pwns us and sony def will too.

   by Advertising -
   by BadAndy - 2006-03-04
 » Gametap
First off, it is frustrating when a HDD fails, but ... you neglect that measures are being taken and constantly improved so that never happens. Memory, such as USb sticks and flash, are far less likely to funk up on you, than an actual HDD. And given by 2008 there is said to be a 40 GB memory card on the market (not a microdrive). Eventually the disk HDD will be obsolete because they are more expensive to produce in the long run and they can and will be faster than a HDD - although I dont belive this revolution will come along anytime soon - so anyway.

There can and will be one day where defraging and accidental deletions will be a thing of the past - which will be sooner than later if everyone wants to keep consumers buying the larger drives, that tend to have these issues. Technology is aproaching us faster and faster. It took 20 years (15 to hit the market) for us to move from VHS to DVD.

Now if either of the HD formats catch on, I would give it another 5 years to become as mainstream as DVD's (netflix is already rimed to begin renting Blu-ray and HD-DVD when they release). That is a little more than 10 years (it could be even less than that) - you see what I mean?

Look at what MS is doing with their 360 arcade titles. If anything is deleted you can download it to your hard drive again because the network knows you already purchased it. Now, I do have to agree that a physical medium is not going to disapear within the next ten years, but I see digital downloads as a prime option for those who choose to go that route. Say, the hard copy would be more expensive and possibly harder to find while the download is right there. Estimating, around 5-10 bucks cheaper without the packaging cost, shipping cost and artwork cost.

Splitting the divide, within 10 years, to give everyone a choice - and a reason for the choice - would make more sense than forcing a "download only" option. it is a bit harsh. And as liquid says I see stricly downloads happening many more years down the road. Maybe 20, not 40, but who knows, it might never catch on ... stranger things have happened.

Though with broadband increasing spead every year now (slowly becoming more affordable as well) it helps to further the claim/idea that downloads will play a big role in the not so distant future, for solid games. Ea has already begun the early stages for this, and fileplanet allows you to purchase and download full, popular titles, and even the chance to acquire points to purchase them or give a discount on the full price. And lastly, the subject of my post, gametap.

Although it is not full of software I want to see, it has some pretty killer and classic titles to offer. And seeing as you are not downloading every single aspect of the game, you are essentialy atreaming it from their servers to play on your computer. Getting rid of the installation process and playing as soon as the required files download. But what if one day we simply just stream the data? It has been said it is possible, but no one is sure there is much of a market out there for it. But think, there would not be any need to wait for the download (unlike gametap). Just purchase it, and play, whenever you want.

No stack of games cluttering up your entertainment stand, and no need to switch discs. It would all be stored and maintained on a seperate server, which would obviously have high security measures to prevent any game from ever being unavailable. Though this is yet another technology that is far off, it is still interesting enough to mention.

   by Synic - 2006-03-04
 » Hard Copy all the way
I will never shell out 30-50 for a Download of a game. Honestly, if you have to pay to dl it just pirate the damn thing. I dont want to give someone my money in exchange for a piece of memory that could be deleted. The only way it could work is if a company, say, Sony gave you an ID of sorts and you bought the rights to play games from them. So if it ever got deleted you could just re-dl the client. Then you only need to worry about Sony f'ing up and im sure there would be backups. But the only way that would work is if many games were under one umbrella like console companies are to games now, and the games only cost like 10-20 bucks. But if you want me to pay 30-50 for a game with no boxart or manual then your nuts.

   by ssj3fox - 2006-03-06
 » Steam
I got some games over Steam and I love it. I can't wait to buy Sin Eps and HL2:EP1! Most of the games come with cool stuff too like free games, SDK, or even beta testing rights!



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