Posted Jul 09, 2006 at 06:53PM by Mark M. Listed in: Wii, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 Tags: Microsoft, Sony
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ConsolesThe next-gen console war continues to heat up... At least as much heat as a battle between two not-yet- released consoles and a relatively new console can generate.

Analyst Jason Anderson from the International Development Group states that he believes Microsoft’s Xbox 360 will be the number one console until 2009, at which point Sony’s PlayStation 3 will take over.

So, fanboys, here are his predictions. Anderson said by the end of 2007, the Xbox 360 will have sold 10.6 million consoles, PS3 6.8 million, and 3.5 million Nintendo Wii consoles.

In 2008, Xbox 360 will be at 15 million, PS3 will have 13.5 million, and 6.5 million for the Wii.

By 2009, he foresees Sony's PS3 taking the lead.

Of course, Anderson doesn't explain what his calculations are based on, and many would argue other factors could easily skew these numbers. Still, it's an interesting read though.


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86 Comments


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   by Vecha - 2006-07-09
 » It may be true...

I believe though...sony could win sooner. If key games come out...DMC, MGS, FF, and original titles that made the ps2 so popular(even for me...and i'm anti-sony) then sony may take the lead...

   by tom (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » yeah

i have to agree with this. i think Xbox 360 will have the lead for awhile then the ps3 will catch up but its gonna take awhile

   by too lazy 2 sign in (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » #3

he's not a fanboy...he is saying that the 360 will lead until the ps3's prices come down and more people will buy it...you are the one being a fanboy...BTW u misspelled sales...and *****

   by Fin (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » #3 how old are you??

Yeah, I also see the Xbox ahead for a while. 2009 (3 years) seems pretty reasonable in my opinon. One, ps3 has to catch up to the sales Xbox360 already has under its belt since it was released earlier and two, 3 years gives it some time for price drops, maybe somewhere over a hundred bucks so it may be a bit more affordable.

   by Hunter (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » Screw 360

Its all going to Wii this time around.

   by ludachris (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » yeah what ever

wow..predicitons like that are about as lame as asumtions...do people really think that nintendo is just releacing a consul to make people happy or just to say they have one on the market? F*** no. they want money and they have already taken the steeps to enshure their money...with sony i see 3 things: graphics price and few good games...while with nintendo i see II things: games and people. i would rather rely on people to support my consil than graphics..i say good luck to sony

   by skidz (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » Analysts and Numbers

These Analysts are all the same. They look at a chart of numbers and make a quess. In this case it seems more based upon the SNES doing well then later the Playstation. This isnt going to happen again. The PS3 will either do well in the first year and a half or it wont. The industry is moving so fast these days and developers dont choose sides based on technology, they choose for the money.
And this time around I dont think the Wii will do as poorly as the Gamecube. Again this guy looks at a bunch of numbers and quesses that the Wii will do poorly because of the Gamecube and falling sales before. Developers and consumers seem a lot more interested in the Nintendo system this time around.

Currently I'm noticing some real nervous developers and Publishers. They notice the anti hype of the PS3 and notice how far the 360 is going after only being released for less than a year. Then the Wii being by far the biggest hit at E3. I have also noticed acouple companies jump out and say thier game is in fact not a PS3 exclusive but also for the 360. This is what leads me to believe the Publishers and Developers are getting worried about the PS3.

So in the end I would say, knowing that my guess is purely a guess:
The 360 will probably do extremely well, the PS3 will do better in Japan but not so well in North America and Europe. The Wii will be one of those systems you have to "wait and find out". Since it comes before the PS3 that will also give it that much more of an advantage.

Personally I love the 360 so far and the new games comming look excellent. The Wii will also be on my desk because I have always been a huge Nintendo fan since the early days of NES. And I dont think the PS3 is worth the amount they are selling. I wouldnt buy one for the Blu-ray because personally I just dont care. And I wouldnt buy a crappier model either.

   by whocaresanyway (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » i go for ps3 takin the lead a year sooner...but

i think the wii will take the cake, i think in a year the wii will be 1st and 2-3 yrs the ps3 will be 2nd and 360 last, btw i prefer ps3 anyday cuz i hav a ps2

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   by skidz (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » Same as above

So far the comments left here seem to follow the same understanding. It did poor in the past, so it must do the same in the future. Dont look to the past, its only for fixing mistakes.

   by meh (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » well

His prediction could work, as well as any other predictions, but I believe there may not be a loser in this war at all. It may actually be the closest console war ever seen by gamers.

   by Tom (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » Am i the only one thats glad that all 3 are here to stay?

Am I?

   by Vietone - 2006-07-09
 » PS3 can produce alot.

Sony said previously that they will have more then 1 million units at launch.

They also dont factor in the amount of PS2s people will be trading in to purchase a PS3. This analysis is way off.

Everyone knows the peak of the XBox360 sales and come and gone. And even if they were to sell at the same rate they are now, they wont reach 10 million by the end of 2007.

Microsoft plans to manufacture 10 million but selling them is completely different.

Xbox360 appeals to the gamer audience. It has little appeal as an entertainment center because it cant do it without spending as much as a PS3 yet still have less features.

Whats 100 bucks more? 400 premium system vs 500 basic PS3? Which system wins? PS3 hands down in terms of features.

People are looking for futureproof products. Why do people spend several hundred dollars on new cell phones that they want to keep for a few years. Why do people spend several hundred more on new models TVs then buy a cheaper yet older model?

By the end of 2007, I predict that the PS3 will have sold more then the Xbox360. Why? Not only gamers will purchase the system but anyone looking for a new generation of home entertainment.

Even if you dont use the system to play games, it has a load of features that can be used. Internet browser can be used to surf, download videos, pictures, music. thats something the Xbox360 cant do because your restricted to whats on the Live market. Its already proven that the PS3 can play HD Videos from the HDD. If they allow custom applications, just about everything that runs on linux can be ported to the PS3.

Sony mentioned that once they get production up to speed, they can manufacture 1 million units a month. This analysis Jason looks at previous sales data. But for the PS3 that no longer applies because the appeal of the PS3 is no longer focused on the gaming industry, its going to be a full blown entertainment system. If people are willing to spend thousands on a TV, Speakers, and a reciever, why not spend 500-600 bucks on "one" electronic that will cover everything you possibly need at the couch.

   by Timmy A (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » ...

He could be on the right track, but there are still too many unknowns involved.

PS3's high price tag will drive many to the 360, which will garner extra third party support for Microsoft. The 360 should then continue to sell well. It won't struggle against the PS3 until they eventually both become competitively priced. Sony will then take over once again.

The big wildcard involved is the Wii. I predict that this will be a massive success. It will outdo everything in it's path in Japan, and compete fairly evenly in U.S. + Europe etc.

It may still be too difficult to announce a winner of the Next-Gen console war, even in 2009.

   by Fin (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » #18

Your right, the Wii is the wild card I do believe that it willl be successful no matter what. I, myself, am pretty interested in it. But heres the thing, the Wii is cheap, and is more of a party, everyone plays oriented system. No doubt it will sell, and even if you have a Xbox360 or ps3 you'll probably eventually own one (or know someone that does).

The way I see it, the Wii is on its own category. The Xbox360 and PS3 are in theirs and its a war between those two. These two aim for not only the casual gamers but the hardcore ones also. So in the long run its a matter of Wii and either PS3 or Xbox360 that is left. The Wii, even if it sells millions more than either of the two is not a direct threat to the other systems because it is in its own category.

   by dreary79 (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » 360 current sales

360 hasn't even sold 4million yet. Lets just say that they get lucky and sell 6million before the PS3 comes out. Is it really going to take that long for the PS3 and Wii to catch up? Is the Wii really going to do that bad in sales?

ANALIZE THIS JANRUARY 2007 AND I BET WE CAN MAKE MORE SENCE.

   by shotgunsteve (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » stfu

These people need to stop wasting their time with stupid predictions and wait untile the damn consoles come out... Xbox 360 is the only one out so it's the best plain and simple

   by Kojinto (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » Hmm......

we all know that the 360 and the PS3 will come down in price, but the rate of which the 360 lowers in price will be greater than the rate of the PS3's price lowering. Since there is a Blue-Ray drive in the PS3, the PS3 will remain expensive for a long time, by the time the platinum version comes down to $400, the 360's will be at $200, and the Wii at $100

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   by NonPartisanCon (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » No sir.

I didn't read the article. Just the headline. I'm going to go out on a limb and say, no, no it won't. If anything the Nintendo Wii with it's suprisingly innovative peripherals, low prices, and built in web browsing capabilities via Opera will grab the market over the next decade. The Xbox360 while capable of producing impress images simply isn't built to withstand the future of games. Too much focus was placed on bringing a multimedia entertainment system to the market rather than delivering the video gaming experience. I'm not selling Microsoft short, just being realistic.

(For anyone who would dare be immmature enough to label me a fanboy, I would prefer the PS3 but due to the pricing and the fact that it has yet to hit the shelves I have excluded it from this brief rant)

   by clouducla (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » nobody knows

dude...nobody KNOWS wats gonna happen in the next gen wars, this guy is talkin out of his ars....hes a 360 fan boy, and in a week some other fool is goin to say the ps3 is going to come out on top in 2006...a ps3 fanboy...same goes for the wii fanboys...all we know is wat has happend before...sony has been on top for ages now...and it wasnt because of the hardware...it was all about the games...nintendo 64 was a better machine than the ps1 (no loading and all) but it lost out to it cuz of games like FF VII and resident evil, dreamcast is still better than the ps2 but it wouldnt keep up because ps2 had great games like gta and GT..now the ps3 is the strongest console ever...however....it may not have the games....so..WHO KNOWS WATS GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!...my pick.....sega saturn return!

   by clouducla (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » hahaha...fanboy talk...

26....you own an xbox 1.5...it plays THIS gen media...dvd9...and if u pay 200or 250 for the hd player...ull only be able to play movies on it...it wont play hddvd games which means the games are gonna be super limited in terms of memory...no 1080p....and wack ars games...dude...until the ps3 comes out...we wont see wat the lamebox 360 has to offer...ill stick w/ my saturn...

   by ReCkLeSs X - 2006-07-09
 » We will see..

This seems like a pretty decent assumption. But we really won't know who wins for sure, until 5-6 years pass. And, if somebody says that a console will win because they have it, well, that's just ignorance, oh and fanboyism.

   by whocaresanyway (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » yo #26....

thats horrible logic and talk, bad fanboy bad

   by jamintz (Unregistered) - 2006-07-09
 » yes

I hope hes right. I am not going to be buying a ps3 or wii anytime soon...

   by Erick (Unregistered) - 2006-07-10
 » Loser

By the way things are goin for the xbox 360 (In Sales), its kinda hard to predict that xbox will be winner. The Wii will be strong in the beggining but I'll fade in time.

   by you are all fools (Unregistered) - 2006-07-10
 » ;

The comments are always the worst kind of speculation - fanboy speculation.
The guy can be right. By 2009, people might realize what a useless piece of ***** 360 is when over 80 percent of them brick.

   by jayhawker09 (Unregistered) - 2006-07-10
 » #7

CANT SPELL!!! hahahaha! delete me again, QJ

   by stfu (Unregistered) - 2006-07-10
 » agh

all i hear from sony boys is ZOMG pS will pwn cuz the disks hold more and wtf lamebox how creative what about gaystation....

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   by clouducla (Unregistered) - 2006-07-10
 » fanboys

...dude...dont be a dic.k......people can have an opinion on consoles without being fools!...just because they have blind faith in one or another doesnt make them fools...your just closed minded....claiming you know somethin...like who is gonna win...is equally closed minded...

   by Yaz - 2006-07-10
 » To fanboy #27....

"you own an xbox 1.5...it plays THIS gen media...dvd9..."

And there I was thinking content matters more than the media.

So which HD-DVD or Blu-ray PC game are you playing at present? Do future PC games like Crysis and Spore appear to be hampered by DVD (yes, I know they're installed onto the HDD, but still...)? And wasn't one of the best games last gen released on the Gamecube on two mini-DVD discs (1.5GB each)? That game being RE4!

Technologies are the ingredients, but gameplay is the CAKE with graphics and sound as the icing on the cake. ;)

Anyway, this prediction sounds reasonable to me, but like all predictions, we'll just have to wait and see if it's correct.

   by darkdreamr (Unregistered) - 2006-07-10
 » sorry

now.. im sorry.. but i fail to believe that ps3 will sell that much more then the wii when the ps3 price is 2 1/2 times as expensive seeing that the DSL is already closing in on the 3 million unit point in less then a year

as it is possible that the 360 will dominate for a while.. the small count of the wii is not realistic considering the hype that surrounds it and the general negitivity that surrounds the ps3..

but only time will tell



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